Saturday, February 28, 2009

B101's Top 10 (Bubble) Games To Watch This Weekend

Here's a look at the weekend's 10 most notable games that feature at least one bubble team:

Saturday's Games
Notre Dame at Connecticut
This game is obviously much bigger for Notre Dame than it is for UConn, but before we break down the Irish and their chances, we want to give a little love to (an underpaid) Jim Calhoun and his Huskies, who apparently have figured out a way to play without Jerome Dyson. The combination of A.J. Price (who Calhoun compared to Rip Hamilton and Ray Allen after his 36-point performance against Marquette on Wednesday night) and the suddenly-aggressive Stanley Robinson (how many dunks did he have the other night? 4? 5?) helped the Huskies pick up a huge road win, and helped them keep their goal of a Big East regular season title alive. A win in this game would not only make the Huskies the new No. 1 team in the country, but it would also make them the new No. 1 overall seed in our Field of 65. It might also knock the Irish out of our field after a one-week cameo. Right now, there are only three bracketolgists out there (out of the 54 listed in the Bracket Matrix) that have ND in, and we are one of them. We've had to defend their inclusion all week, and we did so by saying that a 9-9 finish and a Big East tourney win or two would be enough to get them in. What we didn't expect was that the other two Big East bubble teams - Providence and Cincinnati - would pick up ginormous wins this week. The Friars' stunning upset of Pitt almost guarantees them a 10-8 Big East record, which is something that ND likely won't have. It would also mean that the committee would have to leap-frog the Irish over the Friars for the eighth (and presumably final) Big East bid. Leap-frogging is fairly common, but it usually only happens in cases where the team being passed over has played a much softer conference schedule or has a much weaker OOC resume. That isn't the case with ND and Providence. Ultimately, the final Big East at-large is going to be decided by what the three bubble teams do in the Big East tourney, but in terms of next week's bracket, there is a chance that Providence gets in over ND.

Duke at Virginia Tech
Providence wasn't the only outside-looking-in bubble team to pick up a huge win already this week. The Hokies, who most people - including us - left for dead after they lost at home to Florida State, bounced back with a stunning win at Clemson on Wednesday to keep them very much alive in the messy ACC bubble picture. At 7-6, Virginia Tech needs to win two of its last three games to get a bid, and with the opponents they have left, two wins might be enough to get them a bid regardless of what they do in the ACC tourney. Their season-ending stretch (Duke, Carolina, at FSU) starts today with a home game against the Blue Devils, who held them to just 13 second half points in a 69-44 win back on Jan. 4. Since that game, the Hokies have been wildly inconsistent, but they have managed to compile a pretty good resume that includes road wins over Wake, Miami, and now Clemson, as well as a home win over Boston College. If Virginia Tech had done anything OOC, they'd be solidly in right now and their RPI would be a lot higher than 55. Since they didn't (their best OOC win is Fairfield), they'll have to make some noise here down the stretch. They certainly have some chances, beginning this afternoon in Blacksburg.

Temple at Dayton
This game was important anyway, but it got a whole lot more important after both of these teams lost earlier in the week. The Flyers, who have been safely in the field for what seems like forever, lost a heartbreaker at Rhode Island on Wednesday night, and as a result, they now have to adjust to life on the bubble. They have lost two straight (both were on the road, but still...), and if they were to lose at home to Temple today with a game at Xavier looming next week, a case could be made that they don't deserve an at-large bid in our next field. They might be joined on the outside looking in by Temple. We went out on a limb two weeks ago and put the Owls in our field as a bid-stealer out of the A-10, and for a couple of games, we liked how our prediction was working out. That all changed, though, on Thursday night. Temple inexplicably lost at home to lowly LaSalle (look ahead much?), and it might cost them a spot in our bracket. If the Owls can't beat the Flyers today (something URI just did), there is a good chance that the Rams replace Temple as our A-10 automatic. URI has won nine of 10 and has set itself up nicely to get the 2 seed in the A-10 tourney, which would mean avoiding top-seeded Xavier until the final.

Big XII bubble battles (Nebraska at Kansas State, Texas at Oklahoma State, Iowa State at Texas A&M)
The last few days haven't been much fun for Kansas State fans. On Tuesday, Texas A&M beat Nebraska on a ridiculous three at the buzzer to keep their at-large chances alive, and the next night, the Wildcats got destroyed at Missouri and Oklahoma State crushed Colorado. Those results made the already cloudy bubble picture in the Big XII that much harder to figure out. The biggest loser based on what's already happened this week is Kansas State. Not only were they non-competitive against the Tigers, but their RPI dropped to 76 as a result of their loss - which is more than 40 points worse than A&M's and Oklahoma State's. If the Wildcats manage to beat Nebraska today, they'll have to beat the Cowboys in Stillwater next week or they're done. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, hosts Texas tonight to begin a rough three-game stretch to end their season. They finish up with a game at Oklahoma next Saturday. If the Cowboys can win two of their next three, they'll finish 9-7, but their Big XII resume will have no real quality wins on it. They don't have much OOC either, other than wins over Siena and Rhode Island, which means even at 9-7, they might have to win two Big XII tourney games to be safe. All of this is music to the ears of Texas A&M fans, who suddenly have to like their team's chances to sneak in and grab an at-large. The Aggies have by far the best OOC resume of any of the Big XII bubble teams (they have wins over LSU and Arizona) and they have a quality win in conference over Texas. The only thing A&M will lack heading into the Big XII tourney is an above-.500 conference record. At 6-7, they need to win their next two (Iowa State and at Colorado) and then get ready to try to pull the upset over Missouri at home in their season finale. Even if they don't beat the Tigers, they'll finish at 8-8 with an RPI in the mid-to-low 30s, and with a win in the Big XII tourney, they'll probably get a bid. Two wins and they'd be a lock.

LSU at Kentucky
When we were filling out our Field of 65 last Sunday night, we had a hard time coming up with a team that deserved the final spot on the 9 line. In the end, we decided to go with Kentucky, who had just finished up an impressive season sweep on Tennessee by beating the Vols in Lexington. How did the Wildcats repay us? They got destroyed at South Carolina on Wednesday night. That loss made the already complicated SEC bubble that much more muddled, and made this game between Kentucky and LSU that much more important for the Wildcats to win. LSU, which has kind of distanced itself from the rest of the SEC teams in the field, ran their win streak to nine by beating Florida at home on Tuesday. If the Tigers win this game, they might find themselves on the 5 line next week, which would be the highest an SEC team has been in months. A win by Kentucky would work wonders for their 62 RPI and keep them in the hunt for a potential SEC East title with two games to play. South Carolina enters this weekend with a one-game lead in the division over Kentucky, Florida, and Tennessee.

Utah at BYU
The Cougars came back from a 14-point second half deficit on Wednesday at SDSU to pick up a huge road win. The win gave them the season sweep over the Aztecs and puts them in great position for a bid. A home win over first place Utah would send them from Last Four Out in last week's bracket to a very safely in on Sunday. Even if the Cougars falter here, they will be in good shape if they can win next week's games against Wyoming and Air Force to get to 11 MWC wins. The Utes won the first matchup of the season of this in-state rivalry, which ended up being the game that started their current eight-game winning streak. Utah has a shockingly high 9 RPI, which is a little deceiving since it doesn't include their opening season loss to non-D1 Southwest Baptist. They already own a win over UNLV this week, so a win here would send their 8 seed skyrocketing to at least the 6 line.

Utah State at Nevada
Many bracketologists have already written off Utah State's at large chances, but we think it is a little early for that. If the Aggies managed to win out until the conference tourney final they would end up 29-4 in the 11th-rated WAC and they currently have a 25 RPI. History is also on their side; from 2004-2007 the regular season champ lost in the conference tourney yet still got an at large bid each year. However, they would still only have one Top 50 win and 13 of their wins have come against teams with an RPI higher than 200. A win today over the second place Wolfpack would give Aggie fans plenty off confidence for the WAC tourney, which will be back in Reno in two weeks. If the Aggies were to win out and then lose the conference final they'll need to hope that it is against Nevada since it would at least be considered a road loss.

Also receiving votes: Clemson at Florida State, Ohio State at Purdue, Indiana at Penn State, Georgetown at Villanova, Pittsburgh at Seton Hall, South Carolina at Vanderbilt, UCLA at California, Arizona at Washington, Arizona State at Washington State, USC at Stanford, Cleveland State at Butler, Gonzaga at San Diego, San Diego State at TCU

Sunday's Games
Cincinnati at Syracuse & Providence at Rutgers
Both the Bearcats and the Friars picked up huge wins this week to keep their tourney hopes alive. The Friars probably had the biggest bubble win of the week in beating Pitt. The biggest problem is that it was only their second top 50 win of the season. They actually need bubble rival Cincinnati to climb up a few spots in the RPI so they could double their top 50 win total. The Friars' season sweep of the Bearcats is huge right now since there is a good chance that the two will finish tied in the Big East standings. This road game is crucial for the Friars since they have to travel to Villanova later in the week. A win would guarantee a winning record in the Big East and they likely wouldn't have to play on day one of the Big East tourney. They would likely be pitted against a fellow Big East bubble team on day two in an elimination game. The Bearcats' win over WVU this week was their best of the season (which doesn't say much). A win in the Carrier Dome would be ginormous and would get them back into the field. They'd have a great chance to get to 11 Big East wins with games against South Florida and Seton Hall remaining. They have had a relatively easy Big East schedule, since they haven't had to play any of the top teams twice, so 10-8 won't be all that great.

Michigan at Wisconsin
This one gets the stamp for B101's bubble matchup of the weekend. The Badgers can pretty much punch their dance ticket if they can pick this one up. With lowly Indiana coming in next weekend, they would be virtually guaranteed of a winning Big Ten record. The Badgers resume isn't terribly impressive, but they do have a solid RPI, and with season sweeps over Penn State and Michigan, it would be tough for them to not get a bid. We have to admit that we left the Wolverines for dead last weekend after their loss at Iowa. With the schedule they had remaining we couldn't see a .500 conference record being possible and we didn't even include them on the next four out. Then they go out and pick up yet another top 50 win over Purdue. Their resume has plenty of nice wins, but none have come on the road and they already have 11 losses. They'll get another chance later this week for a good road win up in Minnesota. The next two will also give them a chance to improve on their 2-4 record against middle-of-the-pack/bubble Big Ten teams. The Minnesota game might actually be a little more important than this one since it would give them the season sweep over a suddenly vulnerable Gopher squad.

Maryland at North Carolina State
The Terps played Duke tough for 35 minutes but still ended up with a double-digit loss. Luckily for them, Va Tech was also unable to beat the Blue Devils at home on Saturday. They now have to travel to Raleigh to take on a N.C. State team that has already beaten Wake Forest and Miami on their home court. It likely won't be an easy one for a Maryland team whose only true road win all season came against lowly Georgia Tech. Because of that fact, this game may actually be more important then their Tuesday home matchup with Wake Forest. A .500 conference record is a must and if the Terps can manage to win out and finish 9-7 all they would need is one win in the ACC tourney to be a lock.

Also receiving votes: Marquette at Louisville, Michigan State at Illinois, Missouri at Kansas, Tennessee at Florida, West Virginia at South Florida

53 comments:

Bryan said...

Well B101 guys, we've hit that time of year again for FSU fans. My question to you is this: Should FSU collapse and lose its last 3 conference games, and then lose in its first game in the ACC tourney, (which would give them an 8-9 finishing conference record and a 5 game losing streak to end the year), would they still get in? Many on the FSU message boards feel like we are safely in no matter what happens, but having been left out over the last 3 years, including one year with a 9-7 record (but a cucpcake OOC sched.) has made me a bit cynical concerning FSU's chances. Should FSU beat Clemson on Sat, this is probably a moot point, but would like to hear your thoughts. As always, thanks for the great job you do for all of us NCAA hoops fans!

Bracketology 101 said...

Awfully cynical Bryan...if FSU closed out on a 5 game losing streak we wouldn't like their chances. The loss in the ACC tourney would be against Virginia or N.C. State which would be a bad one. One more regular season win is all the 'Noles need to be safe.

Anonymous said...

How big is Georgetown's win today @ NOVA. I realize we have way too many losses but I still feel that 8-10 and 1 win in the BET will get us in. We have the #1 SOS, plus nobody has quality wins like us (@ UCONN, @ Nova, Memphis, Syracuse, Providence, Maryland (neutral))

Anonymous said...

Georgetown question. They're at 6-10 now with Depaul and @St John's coming up. Somewhat likely they end up at 8-10 in the Big East I think. They've won @UConn, @Nova and have beaten Memphis, destroyed Maryland, beaten Syracuse and Providence all at home. Not any terrible losses, although losing at Seton Hall and getting swept by Cincy are not great.

Do they get in by winning 3 games in the BE tourney which would mean losing in the semis? That would make them 11-11 in conference.

Anonymous said...

If fsu wins today, will they go up to a 4 or so?

Bracketology 101 said...

It's going to be fascinating to see how Georgetown gets treated by the committee if they finish 8-10 and win one Big East tourney game. If they win two or three Big East tourney games, they'll be a lock. If they only win one Big East tourney, though, they are going to have to be leap-frogged over Providence and Cincinnati to get a bid. The Hoyas will have a much better resume than the other two in terms of quality wins and SOS, but that won't guarantee them anything. If everything plays out the way it should in the Big East, they will have finished two games behind Providence in conference and two games behind Cincinnati, who they lost to twice. If the committee favors "big wins," Georgetown might get in; if they go by conference standings, they'll be NIT-bound.

Bracketology 101 said...

FSU could sneak on to the end of the 4 line with a win today, but they will most likely stay a 5. If they lose today (they're up 12 at the half right now), they'll probably be a 7.

Anonymous said...

FSU WINS!!!!!!!! 9-5 in the ACC, third place with only 2 games left!!!!!!!!

Bryan said...

I've never been so happy to be wrong! Way to go FSU! If they leave us out now, there's a conspiracy afoot =)

Anonymous said...

Do bad losses even count for the selection committee? So many of these teams you seem to think are in suffered embarrassing losses. Georgetown loses to Seton Hall, ND loses to St. Johns, VT loses to GEORGIA, Kentucky loses at home to VMI (one of MANY home losses).

On the other hand, Michigan is the only bubble team with 10 or more wins vs. the RPI Top 100.

Anonymous said...

You forgot to include Michigan losing to Iowa in the bad losses....Seton Hall RPI 102 Iowa RPI 100

Anonymous said...

With pitt losing, does memphis get thier spot on the 1 line? Please tell me they dont

Bracketology 101 said...

Pitt will still be a one seed tomorrow night. Even if Memphis wins out they will be no higher than a 2.

Bad losses are looked at and can be devastating, especially if they come late in the season.

Anonymous said...

Hey Bracketology 101....can you give us a brief rundown on how today's action affected the bubble...maybe 5 best and 5 worst days for bubble teams? Thanks

Anonymous said...

I just dont understand all the fuss about memphis... this will be a team that goes out extremly early in the tourney

Bracketology 101 said...

Wow...what a crazy day.

The 5 best days had to belong to BYU (they'll be in the bracket on Monday), all 3 Big XII bubble teams (Oklahoma State, A&M, and Kansas State) and Dayton.

The 5 worst days belonged to Kentucky, Virginia Tech (the Hokies missed out on a great chance against Duke), Notre Dame, South Carolina, and Utah State.

Anonymous said...

Its a crazy thought, i know, but if FSU Were to win out, would they be considered for a 1 or 2?

Adam said...

Hey Bracketology 101 was just curious what do you think Cincinnati needs to do to get in to the dance? If they win out that would put them at 20-10 (11-7) is that enough or do they have to win a BE tourney game or 2. What if they finish 2-1 will that be enough with a BE tourney win?

Anonymous said...

It feels like the Big Ten is on a mission to get 8 teams into the dance. Michigan State and Purdue have not shown up in a couple key games, just enough to get everyone's RPI a little better, and to have some of the mediocre big ten teams pick up quality wins.

Bracketology 101 said...

If Cincinnati wins out, and finishes 11-7 in conference, they are a lock. If they finish 10-8,they would need two Big East tourney wins to get a bid.

Anonymous said...

B101- If you were a Georgetown fan would you root against Maryland (a fellow bubble team) or for Maryland (to make the 30 pt win on a neutral court look better on the resume)? Thanks for the input.

Anonymous said...

Will Florida be on the outside looking in in your bracket tomorrow?

Bracketology 101 said...

We are going to look long and hard at the SEC tonight, and there is a very good chance it is a 4-bid league in our next bracket. Florida or Kentucky will be on the outside looking in.

It's a tough call, but we would probably root AGAINST Maryland if we were Georgetown fans. The Hoyas have a lot of other quality wins to fall back on, and they are going to need a lot of other bubble teams to lose games if they are going to make it. Plus, if Georgetown is going to make the field, it will be because of what they do from here on out (two wins to get to 8-10 and then two Big East tourney wins). It won't be because they beat the Terps.

Anonymous said...

If "Conferences don't get bids, teams do" why would either Florida or Kentucky be in the field? Neither team deserves to be in, but it's almost like you're saying the SEC has to get at least 4 bids so we've gotta put either Kentucky or Florida in there. That makes no sense at all.

Does the SEC Commissioner being the chairman have anything to do with this decision, or do you really feel Florida/Kentucky are deserving of a bid?

Bracketology 101 said...

We hate to be cynical, but we don't believe in the committee's mantra that "conferences don't get bids, teams do." Conference affiliation is inherently involved in any team's inclusion/exclusion from the bracket, and it's especally important for bubble teams. The conference you are in affects who the bulk of your schedule is played against, and who most of your qualty wins come against, and while the committee will never admit it, we find it hard to beleve that they don't know or don't consider the fact that they are sometimes putting the seventh or eighth best team from one league in over the third, fourth, or fifth best from another league. It has to go through their mind, and it goes through ours too when we put together our bracket each week.

Being the fifth best team in a medicore league like the SEC is not a good thing to have on your resume if you want to get a bid. That's where Kentucky sits right now, and considering they did little OOC, there is a good chance they'll be on the outside looking in tomorrow when our latest bracket gets released.

Keith Bell said...

What effect does BYU's win over Utah this week have on the picture with the MWC and for BYU's chances for an at-large? Also, the top five teams (Utah, BYU, UNM, SDSU and UNLV) in the MWC figure to each pick up 20 wins, which is quite an accomplishment for the conference. The MWC is not gonna get five bids though (I would expect two or three.) Which of these teams do you project as making the tournament?

Bracketology 101 said...

We're still crunching the numbers for tomorrow's bracket, but right now, Utah is a lock out of the MWC and BYU, after their huge week, looks solid for a bid too. UNLV is right on the bubble and will be one of last teams in or last teams out, while San Diego State and New Mexico will stay on the outside looking in.

Anonymous said...

Fair enough, but just because Kentucky doesn't deserve to be in, doesn't mean Florida does.

Yes Florida has 21 wins but they also have an SOS of 88, a non-conference SOS of 228, and 15 of their 21 wins against teams ranked 100th or lower in the RPI.

They're 2-6 against the top 50.

Their only win of note is a neutral site win vs. Washington, but that's offset by one of the worst losses on any bubble team's resume (#204) UGA.

They're 2-6 on the road with their best win being against #78 Auburn. They only played 1 true road game in the non-conference (L to FSU)

They're likely to finish 9-7 in the 6th best conference.

I'm still trying to figure out a positive to their resume. There's no way they'd finish in the top 9 of the ACC.

Bracketology 101 said...

We agree that neither team looks very good on paper right now, but we have to look ahead a little bit when we do our bracket. The fact that Florida hosts Kentucky this weekend helps the Gators' chances to stay in the field (barely).

Anonymous said...

"We agree that neither team looks very good on paper right now, but we have to look ahead a little bit when we do our bracket. The fact that Florida hosts Kentucky this weekend helps the Gators' chances to stay in the field (barely)."

If they dont look good when you look at achievments... Where do they look good? Because the o-dome, today was not one of those places

Anonymous said...

how about penn state after losing to ohio st. and winning against indiana??

Adam said...

How does UC look as far as the upcoming bracket looks? And when will you release the bracket tomorrow?

Anonymous said...

U realize that there are... like... 8 UC's? Cincy, Cal, Conneticut, Clemson...

Adam said...

You are right my fault, Cincinnati. I'm just so used to it. Apologies.

Anonymous said...

Cincy did not only lose today but looked absolutely horrific. Note the committee has said it will take into account how you win and how you lose.

Lee said...

You state that MD would be a lock with a 9-7 conference record and an ACC tourney win, isn't that a bit of stating the obvious? The way I see it they should be in with 9-7 and a 1st round loss or 8-8 and a first round win. Maybe lock wouldn't be the right word for this but something like 90-95%...

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Joanne

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