The Big East has gone from being a relatively easy conference to try and predict to being very messy. Villanova continues to hover around .500 in conference which is not a great place to be in the Big East. They have had probably the hardest conference schedule in the Big East, so they have a good excuse. They are still fairly safe for now, and with the games they have left (@UConn, Syracuse), they have a good opportunity to get to 9-7 which would make them a virtual lock for a bid. West Virginia was one of the last teams to make it into the field this week. They were unable to pick up what would have been a nice road win at Providence last week, so now they have little room for error. Their home win over UCLA got them back into the bracket a few weeks ago and is keeping them there for the time being. They have a solid record but a borderline RPI (57). They have a great chance this week to get a resume making road win at Pitt, but should they be unable to win that, all they need is to take care of Cinci at home to get to 9-7. All they would need after that is one Big East Tourney win. Syracuse has won four in a row and already has 9 Big East wins. They are in a similar situation to WVU in that they have a gaudy record with a mediocre RPI (53). They finish up with Georgetown and @'Nova, so we expect them to end up 9-7. Without any marquee OOC wins that won't be enough to send them dancing.
Michigan State moved back into the bracket in a big way. After home wins against Wisconsin and Indiana, they were able to move up to a 6 seed. Illinois took care of business this week and if they can pick up a win in their last conference regular season game @Iowa this week then they can feel a bit more comfortable at 10-6. Purdue was unable to take some pressure off after losing @Iowa this week. They have 2 winnable home games left (Minnesota, Northwestern) which they must have and then one win in the conference tourney should be enough to stamp their ticket.
We went with two teams out of the Horizon for the first time this season. Wright State and Butler ended up tied for first in conference but Wright State won the tie-breaker so they will now have the opportunity to play on their home floor. They just recently beat Butler at home so we like their chances to do it again. Our other conference where we still like a bid to be stolen is the WAC. New Mexico State dropped their first home game of the season to Fresno State but we still like them to come out on top on their home floor next week in the conference tourney.
The Colonial conference wrapped up its regular season this week. The CAA conference tourney is wide open and should be very entertaining. We still like it to be a one bid league with ODU coming out on top, but there are definitely some scenarios that could develop to give the conference two bids. The VCU-Drexel semifinal game (if it happens) would determine who has the best chance to be the second CAA team in if they were to lose in the final to ODU. In the MWC, SDSU continued its home dominance with a blowout win over BYU. Their overall profile is mediocre, but their recent home blowouts of BYU, UNLV, and Air Force have been impressive. They now have an opportunity to finish at least tied for third with Air Force in conference and that, coupled with a MWC tourney championship appearance, would give them an outside shot at an at-large.
We will post another bracket on Thursday or Friday and starting next week we will update the bracket daily if needed.
Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for Feb. 26:
Last Four In
Illinois, Missouri State, West Virginia, Purdue
Last Four Out
Syracuse, Kansas State, San Diego State, Georgia
Conference Breakdown
ACC (7), Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Pac-10 (6), Big XII (4), SEC (4), MVC (3), MWC (3), Horizon (2), WAC (2)
(Teams listed first from multiple bid conferences are automatics.)
America East - Vermont
ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Virginia, Boston College, Georgia Tech
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State
A-10 - Xavier
Big East - Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Sky - Weber State
Big South - Winthrop
Big Ten - Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue
Big 12 - Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech
Big West - Long Beach State
Colonial - Old Dominion
C-USA - Memphis
Horizon - Wright State, Butler
Ivy - Penn
Metro Atlantic - Marist
MAC - Kent State
MCC - Oral Roberts
MEAC - Delaware State
MVC - Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC - UNLV, Air Force, BYU
Northeast - Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay
Pac-10 - UCLA, Washington State, USC, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford
Patriot - Holy Cross
SEC - Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
SWAC - Jackson State
Sun Belt - South Alabama
WAC - New Mexico State, Nevada
WCC - Gonzaga
The Seeds
The 1s
UCLA, Ohio State, Kansas, Florida
The 2s
Wisconsin, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Georgetown
The 3s
Pittsburgh, Southern Illinois, Memphis, Washington State
The 4s
Duke, Nevada, Virginia Tech, Maryland
The 5s
Virginia, USC, Vanderbilt, UNLV
The 6s
Marquette, Michigan State, Tennessee, Oregon
The 7s
Boston College, Kentucky, Arizona, Louisville
The 8s
Texas, Butler, Notre Dame, Air Force
The 9s
BYU, Indiana, Stanford, Villanova
The 10s
Xavier, Georgia Tech, Creighton, Texas Tech
The 11s
Old Dominion, Illinois, Winthrop, Missouri State
The 12s
Gonzaga, West Virginia, Purdue, Davidson
The 13s
New Mexico State, Wright State, Holy Cross, Kent State
The 14s
Vermont, Oral Roberts, Penn, Long Beach State
The 15s
South Alabama, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Marist, East Tennessee State
The 16s
Weber State, Austin Peay, Central Connecticut State, Delaware State (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)
The Bracket
This Week's Bracket - Feb. 26
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves.)
Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com