Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Jan. 29

The Breakdown
As conference play continued this week and teams continued to struggle mightily on the road (UCLA, Texas A&M, Oregon, etc.) , the amount of teams on the bubble rose to record size. The SEC and the ACC continued to be the toughest conferences to figure, and both leagues saw several teams make major movements in this week's bracket.

The SEC was the most fluid conference of the week. After weeks of being in the bracket based solely on potential and not performance, Alabama and (especially) LSU are finally on the outisde looking in. Alabama's non-existent OOC resume and its second loss this season to Arkansas knocked them out, while LSU's inability to win a game period sent them to the outer edges of the bubble. Vanderbilt continued its strong play this week and moved up two seeds lines while Georgia, fresh off wins over Kentucky and LSU, makes its bracket debut. Tennessee and Arkansas are in a virtual tie in our minds as the fifth and sixth teams out of the conference. The SEC should be a six-team league, but the Vols and Razorbacks need to pick it up to make sure that in the end they are two of the six.

The other interesting conference this week proved to be the ACC. Last week, we took Boston College out of the backet, citing Sean Williams' suspension and the Eagles' tough February stretch of conference games as reasons why. BC's win over Florida State this week, though, changed those projections. By winning that game and finishing the week at 6-2 in conference, the Eagles, we now believe, have a great chance of getting to 9-7 and earning a bid. Their end of the season stretch is tough, but needing three wins versus needing four is a huge difference. BC's game at Miami on Feb. 7 is one win, and they can definitely win two more, expecially with four games left at home. Georgia Tech's 0-2 week, and 2-5 mark in conference, knocked them out this week. The Yellow Jackets were replaced by a hot Virginia team that extended its ACC winning streak to four with victories over NC State and Clemson.

Our final major projection change came in the Colonial. After weeks of calling the CAA a one-bid league, both Hofstra and VCU are in this week's bracket. VCU finally picked up some quality road wins this week, including a huge win over at-large hopeful Drexel. Those wins, and a tough-to-ignore 10-0 mark in conference, have us believing now in their at-large hopes. VCU and Hofstra, who we still project as the tournament champ, face of in a battle for Colonial suppremacy Wednesday at Hofstra.

The other mid-major stories of note this week were in the MWC and MVC. BYU's win over Air Force earned the Cougars a spot on the Last Four Out list, and it makes their showdown with UNLV Saturday even more ginormous. With a two-win week, BYU will make the MWC a three-team league next bracket. In the MVC, parity continues to be a problem. Southern Illinois and Creighton have pulled two games clear of the rest of the league, and no one else seems to want a bid. Northern Iowa is still in - barely - despite a two loss week, while Missouri State was knocked out thanks to their home loss to Creighton, a 6-5 record in conference, and a head-to-head loss to UNI. The Bears have two road games this week (at Drake and at Indiana State), and they'll need both to get back on track and back in the bracket.

Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for Jan. 29:

Last Four In
Maryland, VCU, Northern Iowa, Syracuse

Last Four Out
Georgia Tech, Alabama, Missouri State, BYU

Conference Breakdown
ACC (8), Big East (6), Pac-10 (6), SEC (6), Big XII (5), Big Ten (4), MVC (3), Colonial (2), MWC (2), WAC (2)

America East - Vermont

ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, Boston College, Florida State, Maryland

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State

A-10 - Xavier

Big East - Pittsburgh, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State

Big 12 - Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Texas

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Hofstra, VCU

C-USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Loyola (MD)

MAC - Toledo

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - Southern Illinois, Creighton, Northern Iowa

MWC - Air Force, UNLV

Northeast - Central Connecticut State

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay

Pac-10 - UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Arizona

Patriot - Holy Cross

SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas

Southern - Appalachian State

Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

SWAC - Jackson State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

WAC - New Mexico State, Nevada

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds
The 1s
North Carolina, Wisconsin, Florida, UCLA

The 2s
Ohio State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Kansas

The 3s
Duke, Memphis, Oklahoma State, Marquette

The 4s
Texas A&M, Air Force, Washington State, Butler

The 5s
Nevada, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Kentucky

The 6s
Indiana, Southern Illinois, Stanford, USC

The 7s
Arizona, Clemson, UNLV, Texas Tech

The 8s
Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Texas, Georgetown

The 9s
Georgia, Creighton, Virginia, Villanova

The 10s
Tennessee, Arkansas, Boston College, Florida State

The 11s
New Mexico State, Gonzaga, VCU, Xavier

The 12s
Maryland, Hofstra, Northern Iowa, Syracuse

The 13s
Winthrop, Toledo, Western Kentucky, Appalachian State

The 14s
Oral Roberts, Vermont, Holy Cross, Penn

The 15s
Loyola (MD), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Weber State, Long Beach State

The 16s
East Tennessee State, Austin Peay, Central Connecticut State, Delaware State (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
This Week's Bracket - Jan. 29



Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Jan. 22

The Breakdown
Two heads are always better than one when compiling a bracket, and for the first time in a while, that was the case again at Bracketology 101. Craig took some time off from his Marine schedule and chipped in with his opinions and bracket expertise this week. The result, as has been the case in recent weeks, was a lot of movement on and around the bubble.

This week proved to be particularly interesting because it involved some changes to our projections of several teams and conferences. The team suffering the biggest fall this week was Boston College, who dropped out of the bracket altogether (from a 9 seed) with the news that center Sean Williams - the team's second best player and top defender - had been kicked off the team. Another factor in BC's removal was their brutal stretch of conference games at the end of February that, without Williams, could ultimately doom their tourney hopes. Overall, the ACC is getting tougher to figure out each week, as eight teams are viable options for bids. Florida State's upset win over Virginia Tech earned it the ACC's sixth bid. Maryland, at 1-4 in conference, is the league's seventh and final team in right now, and the Terps need to pick up some more good ACC wins soon to stay there.

The second biggest free-fall of the week was made by LSU, who fell from an admittedly high 4 seed to a 9 seed. Their current seed is mostly a projection, as the Tigers have too much talent to continue to play as inconsistently as they have in recent weeks. LSU was joined in this week's backet by the SEC's seventh bid, Vanderbilt. The Commodores make the field thanks to huge wins this week over Alabama and Kentucky.

The MVC continues to be a mess, as Missouri State and Creighton both lost twice (the Bluejays did win at Bradley, though). Both teams are hanging on to spots in the bracket, but more and more it looks like the MVC might end up being a 3-team league. Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois look solid right now, but all of the top- and middle-tier teams in the conference are beating each other up too much, especially on the road, for this to be a 5-team or maybe even a 4-team league as some predicted. Creighton, which already has seven losses, will be the next MVC team out if they don't beat Missouri State this week.

The Big East saw two of its teams, UConn and West Virginia, drop out of the bracket this week, while a hot Villanova team, off wins over Notre Dame and Texas, made its bracket return. The Big XII, meanwhile, picked up a bid thanks to Texas Tech's upset of Kansas.

The mid-majors also proved to be very interesting this week. Despite their loss to St. Joe's and thanks to a win over UMass last Thursday, Xavier remains our pick out of the one-bid A-10. Even though VCU finally had a semi-credible conference win in beating ODU, we still project the Colonial right now to be a one-bid league and are sticking with Hofstra as that one team. Our lone two-bid conferences remain the MWC and the WAC. We admittedly looked pretty foolish Wednesday as New Mexico State lost to pitiful Louisiana Tech, but our season-long love of the Aggies was rewarded Saturday, as they knocked off Nevada. The win not only confirmed our projection that they pose a huge threat to the Wolfpack come conference tournament time, but it also gave a serious boost to their at-large hopes. We'll see how many bracket experts jump aboard the Aggies bandwagon now...

Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for Jan. 22:

Last Four In
Syracuse, Creighton, Missouri State, Maryland

Last Four Out
Boston College, West Virginia, Michigan, Drexel

Conference Breakdown
ACC (7), SEC (7), Pac-10 (6), Big East (6), Big XII (5), MVC (4), Big Ten (4), MWC (2), WAC (2)

America East - Vermont

ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Maryland

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier

Big East - Pittsburgh, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse

Big Sky - Idaho State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State

Big 12 - Texas A&M, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Hofstra

C-USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Loyola (MD)

MAC - Ohio

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Creighton, Missouri State

MWC - Air Force, UNLV

Northeast - Sacred Heart

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay

Pac-10 - UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Washington State, USC, Stanford

Patriot - Holy Cross

SEC - Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas, Vanderbilt

Southern - Appalachian State

Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

SWAC - Jackson State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

WAC - New Mexico State, Nevada

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds
The 1s
UCLA, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin

The 2s
Oregon, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Kansas

The 3s
Pittsburgh, Duke, Memphis, Oklahoma State

The 4s
Air Force, Clemson, Alabama, Arizona

The 5s
Washington State, Marquette, Butler, Nevada

The 6s
Indiana, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Kentucky

The 7s
USC, Tennessee, UNLV, Southern Illinois

The 8s
Texas, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, Texas Tech

The 9s
Villanova, Stanford, Michigan State, LSU

The 10s
Georgia Tech, Arkansas, Florida State, Vanderbilt

The 11s
Gonzaga, Syracuse, Creighton, Missouri State

The 12s
Maryland, Xavier, New Mexico State, Hofstra

The 13s
Winthrop, Western Kentucky, Ohio, Appalachian State

The 14s
Oral Roberts, Vermont, Holy Cross, Penn

The 15s
Loyola (MD), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Idaho State, Long Beach State

The 16s
Belmont, Austin Peay, Sacred Heart, Delaware State (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
This Week's Bracket - Jan. 22



Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

Questions For The Competition - Vol. 2 - Jan. 17

After a lengthy first edition of Questions For The Competition, we debut our regular version of the weekly column this week. For now, the questions will focus on the brackets of Joe Lunardi (up to his old "season ended today" tricks again), Bracketography.com's David Mihm, and as always, ourselves. When other notable "experts" make their picks, we'll pose some questions for them as well.

Here's this week's questions. They are based on Lunardi's Jan. 17th bracket and Mihm's Jan. 14 bracket.

Joe Lunardi (ESPN.com)
Joe apparently missed the first Questions column, and once again took the easy way out with his bracket. This week's gem is his indefensible inclusion of San Francisco in his bracket (as a Play-In Game participant). The Dons are 7-11 overall, but a sweet 3-0 in the WCC (including wins over 8-10 Loyola Marymount and 4-16 Pepperdine), and because of their first place record, they get a bid - and a slew of at-large hopefuls are left out. Joe, we know you use the "season ended today" line to makes things easy for you, but this is a new low, don't you think?

But Joe didn't stop there...how can you put 11-7 Wright State in? A completely untested (unbeaten, but still) VCU team? How many easy decisions can you make in one week? Do you openly root for these stink-but-in-first-place things to happen?

How does Texas A&M get a two seed over Orgeon? Is it all of their quality wins?

How many straight wins does New Mexico State need to get a bid? That's one mid-major worth projecting in right now. I mean, they're no San Francisco, but...

How does Davidson get an 11 seed? They're a seed line better than Stanford?

Isn't a 5 seed a little high for BC?

David Mihm (Bracketography.com)
Lunardi has Texas A&M too high as a 2, but do they really deserve a 7?

How is the world is Villanova in on Jan. 14 and Georgetown and West Virginia out?

How many more losses can Florida State (0-3 in conference) rack up and still stay in your bracket?

What radar do you use that Louisville shows up on?

What's the deal with the Bracket Blog?

Bracketology 101 (Us)
What was that about UConn's upset potential again?

Does LSU really deserve a 4 seed based on what they've done so far?

How did that Creighton inclusion work out for you?

Hofstra impressed you that much in its loss to Northeastern, huh?

Can Michigan State get a little more love than a 12?

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Jan. 15

The Breakdown
Another week full of upsets meant another week full of change in the bracket. After 13 new additions last week, 11 more changes were made this week, including some mix-ups in both the big and small conferences. The ACC had the most movement, as Georgia Tech (fresh off its upset of Duke) and Boston College replace slumping Virginia and Florida State. Washington's free-fall (1-5 in conference...yikes) finally landed it out of the bracket, but the Pac-10 kept its six bids as Stanford (off a state of Washington sweep) made the field. In the Big Ten, which continues to be anyone's guess at this point, Michigan State replaces Michigan, while Creighton, the MVC's new first place team, gets the league's fifth bid.

The most interesting and toughest-to-call conference this week proved to be the Colonial. For weeks, the CAA had been a two-bid league, with Drexel - thanks to its nice OOC wins over Syracuse and Villanova - earning an at-large. The Dragons have slipped since then, though, capped by a drubbing at Old Dominion, and aren't at-large worthy anymore. Until Saturday, it looked like Hofstra (winners over both ODU and Drexel already) would get the league's lone bid, but the Pride lost to lowly Northeastern. The easiest solution would be to put unbeaten VCU in the field, but their spotless mark has come entirely against the league's bottom feeders. They'll still need to beat someone noteworthy to get a look. In the end, we decided the conference deserved only one bid (for the time being), and gave it to Hofstra (despite the NE hiccup) based on head-to-head wins over ODU and Drexel.

The CAA is one of many mid-majors who are on the two-bid bubble. The A-10 is a crowded mess at this point with UMass playing well and Xavier playing inconsistenly, and in the end the league may deserve two bids. For now, we kept the Musketeers in by themselves, based on the fact that they get a shot at the Minutemen at home Thursday. In the WAC, New Mexico State keeps winning (13 in a row) and remains in our bracket, where they have been for weeks. Will they finally make into anyone else's?

Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for Jan. 15:

Last Four In
Arkansas, UConn, Indiana State, Michigan State

Last Four Out
Virginia, Massachusetts, Texas Tech, Michigan

Conference Breakdown
ACC (7), Big East (7), Pac-10 (6), SEC (6), MVC (5), Big XII (4), Big Ten (4), MWC (2), WAC (2)

America East - Vermont

ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Georgia Tech

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier

Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia, Syracuse, UConn

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State

Big 12 - Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Hofstra

C-USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Loyola (MD)

MAC - Ohio

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Creighton, Northern Iowa, Indiana State

MWC - Air Force, UNLV

Northeast - Sacred Heart

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay

Pac-10 - UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Washington State, USC, Stanford

Patriot - Holy Cross

SEC - Florida, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas

Southern - Appalachian State

Southland - Sam Houston State

SWAC - Jackson State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

WAC - Nevada, New Mexico State

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds
The 1s
UCLA, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin

The 2s
Oregon, Kansas, Ohio State, Arizona

The 3s
Pittsburgh, Air Force, Alabama, Texas A&M

The 4s
Oklahoma State, Duke, LSU, Memphis

The 5s
Nevada, Clemson, Notre Dame, Butler

The 6s
Washington State, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Tennessee

The 7s
Texas, Marquette, Kentucky, Southern Illinois

The 8s
USC, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Missouri State

The 9s
Creighton, West Virginia, Indiana, Boston College

The 10s
Stanford, Syracuse, UNLV, Georgia Tech

The 11s
Xavier, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, UConn

The 12s
Michigan State, Indiana State, New Mexico State, Hofstra

The 13s
Winthrop, Western Kentucky, Ohio, Appalachian State

The 14s
Oral Roberts, Holy Cross, Penn, Vermont

The 15s
Loyola (MD), Sacred Heart, Weber State, Long Beach State

The 16s
Belmont, Austin Peay, Sam Houston State, Delaware State (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
This Week's Bracket - Jan. 15

Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com