Monday, December 21, 2009

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Dec. 21

It's been a over a month since our Preseason Field of 65, and as could be expected, there are a ton of changes to our latest bracket. Putting together the field before most teams have started conference play is still tough, but the following bracket is how we see things right now.

You'll notice that some teams have essentially "earned" their ranking and are seeded where they are because of one or more big non-conference wins (see: Syracuse, Kansas State, Temple). Others are hanging on to a decent seed line or remain in the field because, even though their resume is weak right now (see: Connecticut, Tennessee, California), we project that once conference play starts, they will regroup and do enough damage to get in.

Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In

Minnesota, Missouri State, St. John's, Washington State

Last Four Out
Vanderbilt, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Xavier

Next Four Out
Maryland, UAB, Illinois, Seton Hall

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Conference Breakdown
Big East (7), ACC (7), Big Ten (6), Big XII (6), SEC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)

America East - Vermont

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL)

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Temple, Richmond, Dayton

Big East - Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Connecticut, Cincinnati, St. John's

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Radford

Big Ten - Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Northwestern, Minnesota

Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State

Big West - Pacific

Colonial - William & Mary

Conference USA - Tulsa

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Akron

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Northern Iowa, Missouri State

MWC - New Mexico, UNLV, BYU

Northeast - Robert Morris

Ohio Valley - Murray State

Pac-10 - Washington, California, Washington State

Patriot - Army

SEC - Kentucky, Mississippi, Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi State

Southern - Western Carolina

Southland - Sam Houston State

Summit - IUPUI

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

SWAC - Prairie View A&M

WAC - Louisiana Tech

WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's

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The Seeds
The 1s

Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, Syracuse

The 2s
Purdue, Duke, Villanova, West Virginia

The 3s
Georgetown, North Carolina, Kansas State, Michigan State

The 4s
Mississippi, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Gonzaga

The 5s
Butler, Connecticut, Ohio State, Florida

The 6s
Washington, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M

The 7s
Clemson, Wake Forest, Texas Tech, UNLV

The 8s
Northwestern, Florida State, Mississippi State, California

The 9s
Tulsa, Georgia Tech, Richmond, Northern Iowa

The 10s
St. Mary's, Dayton, Oklahoma State, William & Mary

The 11s
Cincinnati, BYU, Minnesota, Missouri State

The 12s
Miami (FL), St. John's, Washington State, Western Carolina

The 13s
Louisiana Tech, Siena, Western Kentucky, Cornell

The 14s
Akron, IUPUI, Pacific, Radford

The 15s
Murray State, Weber State, Vermont, Sam Houston State

The 16s
Belmont, Army, Morgan State, Robert Morris (Play-In Game), Prairie View A&M (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)




Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

Sunday, December 20, 2009

B101's Sunday Tweets

Our quick thoughts on Sunday's results:

It's impossible to look rustier than UConn did against UCF Sunday afternoon. If Stanley Robinson didn't explode in the second half, the Huskies would have been in some serious trouble.

In other UConn news, Ater Majok is not going to solve the Huskies' offensive woes anytime soon. The stats from his much-aticiapted debut: 17 miuntes, one point, three rebounds, and one loud "sit the eff down" from Jim Calhoun when he got pulled late in the second half. Welcome aboard!

Huge win for FSU at Georgia Tech in the ACC opener for both teams. The best part for 'Noles fans? Their team won with Solomon Alabi, their only reliable offensive threat thus far, scoring just nine points.

Wake Forest also won its ACC opener, beating N.C. State in Winston-Salem. They have one more tune-up (UNC-Greensboro) next week before a rough two game stretch against a dangerous Richmond team and a Xavier squad that needs a big win to stay relevant in the crowded A-10.

Saturday, December 19, 2009

B101's Saturday Tweets

Our quick thoughts on Saturday's results:

It took over a month, but the Pac-10 finally has a signature win, thanks to USC's drubbing of Tennessee. Bruce Pearl - what happened?

Remember when Michigan was good? Yikes. Give the Wolverines credit for playing a tough OOC schedule, but they're now 2-5 in their last seven games.

Any argument that Duke is the best team in the ACC right now? They made a good Gonzaga team look awful.

Texas plays pretty well against non-cupcakes, too. Damion James and Dexter Pittman were unstoppable inside against the Tar Heels, whose front line isn't too shabby, either.

Nice escape, West Virginia (they won at Cleveland State on a Da'Sean Butler layup at the buzzer). The Mountaineers were up 12 at the half.

Yes, Xavier got absolutely hosed by Butler's clock operator, but there wouldn't have been a controversial ending if the Musketeers could have grabbed a rebound on that final possession. They gave the Bulldogs way too many chances.

Speaking of Xavier, their OOC schedule was certainly tough, but still have only one good win (Cincinnati). They could really use a win at Wake on Jan. 3 for their tourney resume.

Heck of a day for the A-10 - UMass edged Memphis at home, and Richmond - who owns the SEC - won at Florida (wow). The A-10 looks like a three-bid league (at least) again this season.

It's hard to believe we're writing this, but the Pac-10's having a solid day too. First USC, now Arizona State, who beat visiting San Diego State 55-52.

Cross Georgetown off the unbeaten list - the Hoyas lost by four at home to Old Dominion in a game that wasn't nearly that close. ODU led by 18 with 14 minutes to go.

Head scratchers - Illinois losing at Georgia, South Carolina losing at Wofford (ouch).

Don't tell Temple the Big East is the best league in the country. First they knocked off Villanova, and tonight they went on the road and handed Seton Hall its first loss. The Pirates still may be a bubble team come March, but their OOC resume won't help them much.

The unbeatens continue to fall. This time it's Texas Tech going down at Wichita State. The Red Raiders made a furious comeback to erase a 14-point halftime deficit, but it wasn't enough.

Wichita's win is ginormous for the Valley, which could be a multiple-bid league for the first time in three years. Northern Iowa is still the favorite, but Wichita (10-1) and unbeaten Missouri State are playing like serious conference title contenders.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Breaking Down The ACC-Big Ten Challenge

The Results
Monday's Games
Penn State 69, Virginia 66

Tuesday's Games
North Carolina 89, Michigan State 82
Purdue 69, Wake Forest 58
Northwestern 65, North Carolina State 53
Maryland 80, Indiana 68
Virginia Tech 70, Iowa 64

Wednesday's Games
Wisconsin 73, Duke 69
Ohio State 77, Florida State 64
Illinois 76, Clemson 74
Boston College 62, Michigan 58
Miami (FL) 63, Minnesota 58

The Biggest Win
Wisconsin's win over Duke
Not only did this game give us the first quality court rush of the year, it was ginormous for the reputation of the Big Ten and (most importantly) huge for the Badgers' OOC resume. Wisconsin now has wins over two of the best teams in the ACC (Duke and Maryland) and one over a potential tournament team from the Pac-10 (Arizona) in the last two weeks. With apologies to Syracuse, that might be the best OOC resume in the country. Not bad for a team that most people (ourselves included) didn't have in their preseason brackets.

The Worst Loss
Clemson's loss to Illinois
The Tigers inexplicably blew a 23-point second-half lead at home to the Illini, whose furious comeback was the biggest in school history. The loss definitely takes a little luster off Clemson's big win over Butler last weekend, and makes Sunday's game against South Carolina that much bigger in terms of their OOC resume. On the other side, the win saved Illinois coach Bruce Weber from what would have been a pretty rough post-game news conference. The Illini couldn't afford a third straight defeat, after suffering two bad losses last week to Utah (a game they led by 16 at the half) and Bradley.

What We Learned About The ACC
1. North Carolina is good (and can play a little defense)
Big Ten fans would argue that the Tar Heels should have won at home against Michigan State, but anyone who watched the game had to walk away impressed with the young talent and overall depth that Roy Williams has assembled in Chapel Hill. Ed Davis and Larry Drew II each had career highs with 22 and 18 points, respectively, and the Tar Heels held Michigan State to 2-for-20 shooting from three. Both Drew and Marcus Ginyard were great with the ball, combining for 13 assists and answering the lingering "Do the Heels have any good point guards?" question with a convincing "yes."

2. Miami may actually be legit
Despite winning the Charleston Classic, Miami still hasn't been getting a lot of national love because their path to the title went through Tulane, UNC-Wilmington, and South Carolina. The 'Canes win over Minnesota Wednesday night, though, might go a long way in changing that perception. They are now the only unbeaten ACC team, and if they can win at BC on Sunday (conference play already?) there is a very, very good chance that they go 15-0 to start the season. Their NCAA tourney hopes will still depend on whether then can finish better than .500 in conference, but Miami fans couldn't have hoped for a better start.

3. The ACC is still a really good league
All the talk over the next couple of days will be about the "arrival" of the Big Ten, but the ACC is still a top-three league that is going to get a boatload of bids in March. There are 10 ACC teams that have legitimate NCAA tourney hopes at this point in the season (sorry Virginia and N.C. State) and a lot of the ACC teams on the bubble to start the year (BC, Miami, Florida State) have all picked up big OOC wins in the early-going. Give the Big Ten credit - they won their first Challenge - but don't cry for the ACC. They were just a Clemson collapse away from a 6-5 victory.

What We Learned About The Big Ten
1. Michigan and Minnesota are overrated
Both teams have now lost three in a row following Michigan's bad home loss to BC and Minnesota's loss at Miami. Minnesota's loss capped a day to forget for the Gophers - freshman Royce White pled guilty Wednesday afternoon to charges of disorderly conduct and shoplifting. Against the Hurricanes, Minnesota blew a five point lead at the half and committed three bad turnovers late in the game to help Miami pull away. Michigan, meanwhile, had an awful first half and made just 9 of 34 threes for the game in a four-point loss.

2. Northwestern is alive and well
Like many people, we left Northwestern for dead once leading scorer Kevin Coble was lost for the season, but they picked up a nice road win over N.C. State Wednesday night to add to their respectable OOC resume. The N.C. State win, coupled with a victory over Notre Dame, should go a long way in helping the Wildcats' NCAA chances come March.

3. The Big Ten may be deeper 1 through 5 than the ACC
Yes, it's just three days of games, but it's impossible to not be impressed with the Big Ten, and specifically with what the second-tier Big Ten teams were able to do in the Challenge. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Ohio State all won their games, and Northwestern and Penn State picked up quality road wins as well. Michigan losing at home to BC hurt, but other than that, the Big Ten really had no bad losses in the Challenge.