Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Feb. 19

The Breakdown
There were several teams this week that had huge wins and now find themselves in the bracket, as well as a handful of teams that played badly enough to find themselves out or very close to being out altogether. The ACC had two teams (Clemson and Florida State) who were fairly comfortably in last week and now find themselves out. Clemson has really struggled, losing 7 of 9, and with the way they are playing and the schedule they have left it's tough to envision them getting to even 7-9 in conference. Florida State has now lost 4 in a row and have been swept by fellow ACC bubble boys Georgia Tech and Clemson. A win at streaking Maryland this week is necessary to get themselves back on the good side of the bubble. Georgia Tech picked up a huge road win against Florida State (their first in 2 years) to make a jump back into the field. They still have plenty of work to do but if they can win 3 more games this season they will get a bid. They have 3 out of their last 4 at home (Wake, @UVa, UNC, BC) and if they can pick up 2 more wins and another win the in ACC tourney it will be enough for a bid given their solid out of conference wins. Maryland had a solid week, picking up two road wins, which jumped them from a 12 seed to a 9.

In the Big 12, Texas Tech picked up a big win at Texas A&M to end their five game skid and land themselves back in the field. They have a huge home game this week with Oklahoma State which will likely be a must win game for both teams. Oklahoma State ended up being the most hotly debated team this week between Chris and Craig and even though their seed may not indicate it they were essentially the last team in. Their road troubles has killed their seed in recent weeks but losing to Missouri at home almost get them knocked out of the field. Their quality neutral court wins (Syracuse, Pitt, Missouri State) is what is keeping them in the field but they will need to pick up some road wins down the stretch to remain there. Their games coming up against Texas Tech and Kansas State are huge. Kansas State dropped out of the field because of their loss at Nebraska. Their 8-4 Big 12 record is deceiving since all but one of those wins came against teams in the bottom half of the league. They have a great chance for a resume making win with Kansas coming in Monday.

Purdue grabbed one of the last 4 bids with its win over Indiana and will need to prove itself on the road this week to remain in the field. Illinois needs to win out with the schedule they have left to feel secure about getting a bid. Michigan State faces a must win next weekend with Indiana coming in (assuming they lose to Wisconsin). Every other Big 10 bubble boy was able to beat Indiana at home so MSU needs to follow suit.

Georgia was left out this week because they lost their second leading scorer, Mike Mercer, for the season. They have some tough games left to try and prove themselves without Mercer but we don't like their chances.

BracketBusters was entertaining this weekend but it may have ended up hurting more teams then it helped. VCU's at-large chances took a major blow with the home loss to Bradley. Missouri State no longer has room for error after dropping their BracketBuster game to Winthrop (who they must cheer hard for to get the Big South auto) and Creighton really damaged their profile with a home loss to Drexel. ODU picked up a big road win against Toledo and now look the best for an at-large bid out of the CAA. Drexel has some nice wins on their resume but too many head scratching losses and 4th place out of the CAA will not get an at-large. Bradley picked up its first good OOC win but 0-4 against Missouri State and Creighton really hurt's their chances at a bid. Appalachian State picked up a big win at Wichita State but they also have too many head scratching losses to warrant an at-large bid.

Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for Feb. 19:

Last Four In
Oklahoma State, Purdue, Missouri State, Illinois

Last Four Out
Georgia, Clemson, Kansas State, Michigan State

Conference Breakdown
ACC (7), Big East (7), Pac-10 (6), Big XII (5), Big Ten (5), SEC (5), MVC (3), MWC (3), WAC (2) (Teams listed first from multiple bid conferences are automatics.)

America East - Vermont

ACC - North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Georgia Tech

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State

A-10 - Xavier

Big East - Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, West Virginia, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois

Big 12 - Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Old Dominion

C-USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Marist

MAC - Akron

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State

MWC - Air Force, BYU, UNLV

Northeast - Central Connecticut State

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay

Pac-10 - UCLA, Washington State, Stanford, USC, Arizona, Oregon

Patriot - Holy Cross

SEC - Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

SWAC - Jackson State

Sun Belt - South Alabama

WAC - New Mexico State, Nevada

WCC - Santa Clara

The Seeds
The 1s
UCLA, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio State

The 2s
North Carolina, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M

The 3s
Memphis, Washington State, Southern Illinois, Georgetown

The 4s
Air Force, Nevada, Virginia, Duke

The 5s
Marquette, Butler, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

The 6s
Boston College, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Indiana

The 7s
USC, Arizona, BYU, Texas

The 8s
UNLV, Oregon, Tennessee, West Virginia

The 9s
Maryland, Louisville, Notre Dame, Xavier

The 10s
Alabama, Villanova, Texas Tech, Creighton

The 11s
Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, Winthrop, Purdue

The 12s
Oklahoma State, Missouri State, Illinois, Santa Clara

The 13s
New Mexico State, Davidson, Akron, Holy Cross

The 14s
Vermont, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Oral Roberts, Penn

The 15s
South Alabama, Marist, Long Beach State, Weber State

The 16s
East Tennessee State, Austin Peay, Central Connecticut State, Delaware State (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
This Week's Bracket - Feb. 19



(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)

Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Feb. 12

The Breakdown
It was another upset-filled week in college basketball and because of that, another week which resulted in several changes to our previous projections. The last 10-12 teams considered this week were all very close in terms of resumes, which made us really project ahead to best-case scenarios for each team's conference record. Maryland's win over Duke wasn't all that surprising considering Duke's recent free-fall, but it was extremely important for the Terps' hopes. We had previously said that the best Maryland could do is 7-9 in conference, but that win gives them a halfway-decent shot at 8-8. Two games vs. NC State will help, and if they can split their other four games (tough, but doable), they'll get a bid. Georgia Tech is at 4-6 in conference as well, but their pathetic road history (0-5 this year) and the schedule they have left (@FSU, @ Duke, Wake, @Virginia, UNC, BC) will make it very difficult to get to 7-9 in conference (nevermind 8-8) so we left them out. As it stands right now these two teams would face off in the first round of the ACC tourney and if that holds the winner of that game would likely get the bid.

For all of the bashing its taken this year, the Big Ten might actually have the biggest group of teams on the bubble that have a legit shot at earning a bid. Michigan State dropped out this week and were replaced by an Illinois team that may not have a lot of marquee wins, but has the schedule working in their favor. They have a great shot of winning out (they have Northwestern, Michigan, @ PSU, and @ Iowa left) and finishing 10-6, which would put them in. Purdue barely missed the bracket this week, but they have a great chance at a big win with Indiana coming in this week, and after that have an easy schedule remaining as well. The Big Ten in the end will definitely get four teams in, and if everything works out perfectly, they could get five.

We added Georgia to the bracket once again out of the SEC and removed Arkansas. With the schedule that Georgia has left is tough to see them going worse then 9-7 in conference, which will be enough for a bid. Arkansas suffered a devastating loss at LSU this week to give them their 6th loss out of their last 9 games. They will need to win 5 of their last 6 to get back into the field. Alabama also lost a crucial road game this week at Mississippi (who made their first ever appearance on a Chris and Craig bubble sheet) and their next three game (@Florida, Kentucky, @Tennessee) will determine their fate.

The other notable change is in the Colonial where Old Dominion replaces Hofstra, who we had in for several weeks as the CAA's automatic bid. The Colonial is tough to call right now, but here's how we see it shaping up down the stretch: VCU's loss to ODU was a huge hit to their at-large hopes, and essentially means that they must win out and lose in the conference tourney final to even be considered for an at-large. Our faith in the inconsistent Pride finally came to an end this week, thanks to their loss at home to Drexel. ODU, meanwhile, is on a roll (seven wins in a row) and hosts Hofstra Tuesday in a game they should win. Two teams is not out of the question from the CAA if things break perfectly, but right now we project ODU as the lone bid.

One small conference which we are standing firm on is the WAC, where we still have New Mexico State in as the automatic despite the fact that the Aggies lost a pair of games this week. The decision to still include them may seem ridiculous, but keep in mind that both losses this week were on the road to decent competition. We still believe their perfect home record means something, and with the WAC tourney in their gym, we think the Aggies - not Nevada - will win it. It may seem like a stretch, but mid-major tournies hardly ever go according to plan. If any WAC, Horizon, C-USA, or A-10 team is going to crash the party and steal a bid, we think it'll be New Mexico State.

Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for Feb. 12:

Last Four In
Kansas State, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland

Last Four Out
Georgia Tech, Purdue, Arkansas, Oklahoma

Conference Breakdown
ACC (8), Pac-10 (6), SEC (6), Big East (6), Big XII (5), Big Ten (4), MVC (3), MWC (3), WAC (2)
(Teams listed first from multiple bid conferences are automatics.)

America East - Vermont

ACC - North Carolina, Boston College, Virginia, Duke, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Maryland

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State

A-10 - Xavier

Big East - Pittsburgh, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia, Villanova, Notre Dame

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois

Big 12 - Kansas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas State

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Old Dominion

C-USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Marist

MAC - Akron

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State

MWC - Air Force, UNLV, BYU

Northeast - Central Connecticut State

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay

Pac-10 - UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, USC, Stanford

Patriot - Holy Cross

SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Georgia

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

SWAC - Jackson State

Sun Belt - South Alabama

WAC - New Mexico State, Nevada

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds
The 1s
Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, UCLA

The 2s
Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, Kansas

The 3s
Memphis, Marquette, Washington State, Indiana

The 4s
Southern Illinois, Boston College, Nevada, Kentucky

The 5s
Oregon, Air Force, Butler, Arizona

The 6s
Georgetown, USC, UNLV, Virginia

The 7s
Duke, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Clemson

The 8s
BYU, West Virginia, Tennessee, Stanford

The 9s
Florida State, Texas, Villanova, Vanderbilt

The 10s
Creighton, Missouri State, Xavier, Notre Dame

The 11s
Alabama, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Georgia

The 12s
Illinois, Maryland, Old Dominion, Davidson

The 13s
New Mexico State, Winthrop, Akron, Holy Cross

The 14s
Oral Roberts, Vermont, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Penn

The 15s
South Alabama, Marist, Long Beach State, Weber State

The 16s
East Tennessee State, Austin Peay, Central Connecticut State, Delaware State (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
This Week's Bracket - Feb. 12



Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

Questions For The Competition - Vol. 3 - Feb. 9

Back for a third installment, our Questions For The Competition has expanded to include questions for all five of the "expert" bracketologists and, as always, some questions for ourselves
Questions are based on the latest bracket from each "expert."

Joe Lunardi (ESPN.com)
How are teams like Gonzaga (10 seed) and Michigan State (11 seed) last four in when you have other at-large bids seeded lower than them?

Does the Big East really deserve two 2 seeds?

Is Xavier (the A-10's second bid) really the last team out of the field? Is the A-10 that close to two bids or are you whimping out and picking the team in first (Rhode Island) when you really think Xavier might be the team to beat?

David Mihm (Bracketography.com)
What year did you graduate from Providence?

A 9 seed for USC? They're four seed lines worse than Stanford?

Tennessee and Florida State belong on the same seed line?

What makes you think Georgia Tech will get to .500 in conference with the schedule they have left (@ Florida State, @ Duke, @ Virginia)?

Stewart Mandel (CNNSI.com)
We know you did your bracket before Maryland lost to Virginia, but how could you have them in with a 9 seed even then?

How is that Texas Tech 7 seed looking for you?

We may have been loving a little too much on ND last week but after the loss to South Florida we hammered them. You still have them at a 6...why?

Gary Parrish (CBS Sportsline)
How jacked up could your projected bracket possibly be? In seeding a bracket, each of the first three teams selected from a conference should be placed in different regions. You have Pitt-Marquette, Southern Illinois-Creighton-Missouri State, and Kansas-Oklahoma State all in the same region. Looks like someone needs the phone number for Matt Reeves.

Washington State a 3 seed? Southern Illinois a 4?

Can we get Mejia back?

Michael Lazarus (FOXSports.com)
We know Kentucky has a good RPI, but do they deserve a 3 seed?

More whacked out seeds…WVU a 9, Michigan State a 9, Kansas State an 8??!!

Bracketology 101
How's that Oklahoma State 4 seed looking now?

Why do you guys still have Hofstra as the CAA automatic after two head-scratching losses to Northeastern and Delaware, and considering the fact that the conference tournament is in Richmond (VCU's backyard)?

What was that projection you made not too long ago about Notre Dame? A 5-6 seed? Yeah, not so much.

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Feb. 5

The Breakdown
As the season goes on, it gets harder and harder to pick the last few teams in the field. We added 5 new at-large teams to the bracket this week and said goodbye to Georgia, Maryland, Syracuse, VCU, and Northern Iowa. We welcomed Alabama, Missouri State, Kansas State, and West Virginia back into the field and added first timers BYU.

BYU followed up their home win against Air Force with a blowout win over UNLV. Their 29 RPI along with the fact that they are tied for first in a solid MWC puts them safely in the field. Alabama took care of business this week and have 5 more games remaining against lowly SEC West foes to build on their gaudy record. Picking up a quality victory along the way will be key for them to drastically improve their seed to match their strong record and RPI. Missouri State took care of business on the road this week (which is never easy in the MVC) to jump back into the field. They have a huge game Saturday @Northern Iowa which they need to pick up since they don't want to get swept in the season series against them. Kansas State made the field because of their 7 game win streak along with their huge win at Texas this week. With the schedule they have left they have a great chance to get at least 10 wins in conference which should be enough for a bid out of the Big 12.

Our last team in the field this week was West Virginia. Their 17-4 record is very superficial since they only have 3 wins over teams in the top 100 of the RPI (UConn and DePaul are 2 of those wins). They have 2 chances this week to pick up huge victories with Pitt and UCLA coming in.Georgia was the toughest team to leave out this week. They had two tough road losses this week to solid teams (Vandy and Tennessee) but at 12-8 it is difficult to include them right now. After a matchup with Florida this week, they have a soft schedule and if they can take care of business in that stretch they will find themselves back in the field. Illinois has picked up some huge home victories in the past two weeks to get them back on the top of the bubble. They will need to pick up some road victories down the stretch (4 out of 6 games remaining on the road) to get into the field. We can't see Maryland getting more then 7 wins in the ACC with their remaining schedule so we can't keep them in the field. VCU's at large hopes took a major blow with their loss at Hofstra this week. They still have an outside chance at an at-large bid if they can win out until the conference tourney.

Now for a few comments on teams still in the field. It's really almost a coin flip to try to pick between Illinois and Michigan State as to who should be the fourth team to come out of the Big 10. They have both beat each other once and have nearly identical RPIs and records. While Michigan State has better OOC wins (BYU and Texas), Illinois has a better win in conference (Indiana). Michigan State has a better chance to pick up a big victory down the stretch so we went with them. We can't figure out Texas Tech. First they win against Texas A&M and Kansas and then they lose three winnable games in a row. Surprisingly, what likely kept them in the bracket this week was their win a few weeks ago at Kansas State.

Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for Feb. 5:

Last Four In
Texas Tech, Michigan State, Kansas State, West Virginia

Last Four Out
Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Syracuse

Conference Breakdown
ACC (7), Pac-10 (6), SEC (6), Big XII (6), Big East (6), Big Ten (4), MVC (3), MWC (3), WAC (2)(Teams listed first from multiple bid conferences are automatics.)

America East - Vermont

ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State

A-10 - Xavier

Big East - Pittsburgh, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State

Big 12 - Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Hofstra

C-USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Loyola (MD)

MAC - Akron

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State

MWC - Air Force, UNLV, BYU

Northeast - Central Connecticut State

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay

Pac-10 - UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Arizona

Patriot - Holy CrossSEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

SWAC - Jackson State

Sun Belt - South Alabama

WAC - New Mexico State, Nevada

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds
The 1s
Florida, UCLA, North Carolina, Wisconsin

The 2s
Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, Kansas

The 3s
Memphis, Marquette, Oregon, Duke

The 4s
Air Force, Washington State, Butler, Oklahoma State

The 5s
Nevada, Kentucky, USC, Indiana

The 6s
Southern Illinois, Boston College, Stanford, Virginia

The 7s
Florida State, Arizona, Georgetown, UNLV

The 8s
Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Texas

The 9s
Clemson, Gonzaga, Creighton, Villanova

The 10s
BYU, Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri State

The 11s
Arkansas, Texas Tech, New Mexico State, Michigan State

The 12s
Kansas State, Xavier, West Virginia, Hofstra

The 13s
Winthrop, Davidson, Akron, Holy Cross

The 14s
Oral Roberts, Vermont, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Penn

The 15s
South Alabama, Loyola (MD), Weber State, Long Beach

The 16s
East Tennessee State, Austin Peay, Central Connecticut State, Delaware State (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
This Week's Bracket - Feb. 5



Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com