Bracketology 101: February 2009

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Ranking The Bracketologists

Our friends over at The Bracket Matrix do a great job of keeping track of the weekly projections of over 50 bracketologists. They've recently added a new feature, called Ranking The Bracketologists, which ranks the top bracketology sites based on how successful their projections have been over the last three years.

The Matrix uses a scoring system - developed by our buddy Paymon at PHSports - to rank each of the bracketologists based on teams correctly selected, teams seeded exactly, and teams seeded within one seed line. After crunching all of the numbers from the past three years, The Matrix ranks Bracketology 101 as the most accurate bracketology site on the web. Based on the Paymon scoring system, we had the most accurate bracket overall in 2006 and 2008, and the second most accurate in 2007. Our 2008 bracket earned a score of 332, the second highest Paymon score ever.

In case you were wondering, Joe Lunardi ranks 12th on the Rankings The Bracketologists list (ouch), and in each of the last two years, Lunardi's bracket has been below average accuracy-wise when compared to the rest of the bracketology sites out there.

To check out Ranking The Bracketologists, click here.

B101's Top 10 (Bubble) Games To Watch This Weekend

Here's a look at the weekend's 10 most notable games that feature at least one bubble team:

Saturday's Games
Notre Dame at Connecticut
This game is obviously much bigger for Notre Dame than it is for UConn, but before we break down the Irish and their chances, we want to give a little love to (an underpaid) Jim Calhoun and his Huskies, who apparently have figured out a way to play without Jerome Dyson. The combination of A.J. Price (who Calhoun compared to Rip Hamilton and Ray Allen after his 36-point performance against Marquette on Wednesday night) and the suddenly-aggressive Stanley Robinson (how many dunks did he have the other night? 4? 5?) helped the Huskies pick up a huge road win, and helped them keep their goal of a Big East regular season title alive. A win in this game would not only make the Huskies the new No. 1 team in the country, but it would also make them the new No. 1 overall seed in our Field of 65. It might also knock the Irish out of our field after a one-week cameo. Right now, there are only three bracketolgists out there (out of the 54 listed in the Bracket Matrix) that have ND in, and we are one of them. We've had to defend their inclusion all week, and we did so by saying that a 9-9 finish and a Big East tourney win or two would be enough to get them in. What we didn't expect was that the other two Big East bubble teams - Providence and Cincinnati - would pick up ginormous wins this week. The Friars' stunning upset of Pitt almost guarantees them a 10-8 Big East record, which is something that ND likely won't have. It would also mean that the committee would have to leap-frog the Irish over the Friars for the eighth (and presumably final) Big East bid. Leap-frogging is fairly common, but it usually only happens in cases where the team being passed over has played a much softer conference schedule or has a much weaker OOC resume. That isn't the case with ND and Providence. Ultimately, the final Big East at-large is going to be decided by what the three bubble teams do in the Big East tourney, but in terms of next week's bracket, there is a chance that Providence gets in over ND.

Duke at Virginia Tech
Providence wasn't the only outside-looking-in bubble team to pick up a huge win already this week. The Hokies, who most people - including us - left for dead after they lost at home to Florida State, bounced back with a stunning win at Clemson on Wednesday to keep them very much alive in the messy ACC bubble picture. At 7-6, Virginia Tech needs to win two of its last three games to get a bid, and with the opponents they have left, two wins might be enough to get them a bid regardless of what they do in the ACC tourney. Their season-ending stretch (Duke, Carolina, at FSU) starts today with a home game against the Blue Devils, who held them to just 13 second half points in a 69-44 win back on Jan. 4. Since that game, the Hokies have been wildly inconsistent, but they have managed to compile a pretty good resume that includes road wins over Wake, Miami, and now Clemson, as well as a home win over Boston College. If Virginia Tech had done anything OOC, they'd be solidly in right now and their RPI would be a lot higher than 55. Since they didn't (their best OOC win is Fairfield), they'll have to make some noise here down the stretch. They certainly have some chances, beginning this afternoon in Blacksburg.

Temple at Dayton
This game was important anyway, but it got a whole lot more important after both of these teams lost earlier in the week. The Flyers, who have been safely in the field for what seems like forever, lost a heartbreaker at Rhode Island on Wednesday night, and as a result, they now have to adjust to life on the bubble. They have lost two straight (both were on the road, but still...), and if they were to lose at home to Temple today with a game at Xavier looming next week, a case could be made that they don't deserve an at-large bid in our next field. They might be joined on the outside looking in by Temple. We went out on a limb two weeks ago and put the Owls in our field as a bid-stealer out of the A-10, and for a couple of games, we liked how our prediction was working out. That all changed, though, on Thursday night. Temple inexplicably lost at home to lowly LaSalle (look ahead much?), and it might cost them a spot in our bracket. If the Owls can't beat the Flyers today (something URI just did), there is a good chance that the Rams replace Temple as our A-10 automatic. URI has won nine of 10 and has set itself up nicely to get the 2 seed in the A-10 tourney, which would mean avoiding top-seeded Xavier until the final.

Big XII bubble battles (Nebraska at Kansas State, Texas at Oklahoma State, Iowa State at Texas A&M)
The last few days haven't been much fun for Kansas State fans. On Tuesday, Texas A&M beat Nebraska on a ridiculous three at the buzzer to keep their at-large chances alive, and the next night, the Wildcats got destroyed at Missouri and Oklahoma State crushed Colorado. Those results made the already cloudy bubble picture in the Big XII that much harder to figure out. The biggest loser based on what's already happened this week is Kansas State. Not only were they non-competitive against the Tigers, but their RPI dropped to 76 as a result of their loss - which is more than 40 points worse than A&M's and Oklahoma State's. If the Wildcats manage to beat Nebraska today, they'll have to beat the Cowboys in Stillwater next week or they're done. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, hosts Texas tonight to begin a rough three-game stretch to end their season. They finish up with a game at Oklahoma next Saturday. If the Cowboys can win two of their next three, they'll finish 9-7, but their Big XII resume will have no real quality wins on it. They don't have much OOC either, other than wins over Siena and Rhode Island, which means even at 9-7, they might have to win two Big XII tourney games to be safe. All of this is music to the ears of Texas A&M fans, who suddenly have to like their team's chances to sneak in and grab an at-large. The Aggies have by far the best OOC resume of any of the Big XII bubble teams (they have wins over LSU and Arizona) and they have a quality win in conference over Texas. The only thing A&M will lack heading into the Big XII tourney is an above-.500 conference record. At 6-7, they need to win their next two (Iowa State and at Colorado) and then get ready to try to pull the upset over Missouri at home in their season finale. Even if they don't beat the Tigers, they'll finish at 8-8 with an RPI in the mid-to-low 30s, and with a win in the Big XII tourney, they'll probably get a bid. Two wins and they'd be a lock.

LSU at Kentucky
When we were filling out our Field of 65 last Sunday night, we had a hard time coming up with a team that deserved the final spot on the 9 line. In the end, we decided to go with Kentucky, who had just finished up an impressive season sweep on Tennessee by beating the Vols in Lexington. How did the Wildcats repay us? They got destroyed at South Carolina on Wednesday night. That loss made the already complicated SEC bubble that much more muddled, and made this game between Kentucky and LSU that much more important for the Wildcats to win. LSU, which has kind of distanced itself from the rest of the SEC teams in the field, ran their win streak to nine by beating Florida at home on Tuesday. If the Tigers win this game, they might find themselves on the 5 line next week, which would be the highest an SEC team has been in months. A win by Kentucky would work wonders for their 62 RPI and keep them in the hunt for a potential SEC East title with two games to play. South Carolina enters this weekend with a one-game lead in the division over Kentucky, Florida, and Tennessee.

Utah at BYU
The Cougars came back from a 14-point second half deficit on Wednesday at SDSU to pick up a huge road win. The win gave them the season sweep over the Aztecs and puts them in great position for a bid. A home win over first place Utah would send them from Last Four Out in last week's bracket to a very safely in on Sunday. Even if the Cougars falter here, they will be in good shape if they can win next week's games against Wyoming and Air Force to get to 11 MWC wins. The Utes won the first matchup of the season of this in-state rivalry, which ended up being the game that started their current eight-game winning streak. Utah has a shockingly high 9 RPI, which is a little deceiving since it doesn't include their opening season loss to non-D1 Southwest Baptist. They already own a win over UNLV this week, so a win here would send their 8 seed skyrocketing to at least the 6 line.

Utah State at Nevada
Many bracketologists have already written off Utah State's at large chances, but we think it is a little early for that. If the Aggies managed to win out until the conference tourney final they would end up 29-4 in the 11th-rated WAC and they currently have a 25 RPI. History is also on their side; from 2004-2007 the regular season champ lost in the conference tourney yet still got an at large bid each year. However, they would still only have one Top 50 win and 13 of their wins have come against teams with an RPI higher than 200. A win today over the second place Wolfpack would give Aggie fans plenty off confidence for the WAC tourney, which will be back in Reno in two weeks. If the Aggies were to win out and then lose the conference final they'll need to hope that it is against Nevada since it would at least be considered a road loss.

Also receiving votes: Clemson at Florida State, Ohio State at Purdue, Indiana at Penn State, Georgetown at Villanova, Pittsburgh at Seton Hall, South Carolina at Vanderbilt, UCLA at California, Arizona at Washington, Arizona State at Washington State, USC at Stanford, Cleveland State at Butler, Gonzaga at San Diego, San Diego State at TCU

Sunday's Games
Cincinnati at Syracuse & Providence at Rutgers
Both the Bearcats and the Friars picked up huge wins this week to keep their tourney hopes alive. The Friars probably had the biggest bubble win of the week in beating Pitt. The biggest problem is that it was only their second top 50 win of the season. They actually need bubble rival Cincinnati to climb up a few spots in the RPI so they could double their top 50 win total. The Friars' season sweep of the Bearcats is huge right now since there is a good chance that the two will finish tied in the Big East standings. This road game is crucial for the Friars since they have to travel to Villanova later in the week. A win would guarantee a winning record in the Big East and they likely wouldn't have to play on day one of the Big East tourney. They would likely be pitted against a fellow Big East bubble team on day two in an elimination game. The Bearcats' win over WVU this week was their best of the season (which doesn't say much). A win in the Carrier Dome would be ginormous and would get them back into the field. They'd have a great chance to get to 11 Big East wins with games against South Florida and Seton Hall remaining. They have had a relatively easy Big East schedule, since they haven't had to play any of the top teams twice, so 10-8 won't be all that great.

Michigan at Wisconsin
This one gets the stamp for B101's bubble matchup of the weekend. The Badgers can pretty much punch their dance ticket if they can pick this one up. With lowly Indiana coming in next weekend, they would be virtually guaranteed of a winning Big Ten record. The Badgers resume isn't terribly impressive, but they do have a solid RPI, and with season sweeps over Penn State and Michigan, it would be tough for them to not get a bid. We have to admit that we left the Wolverines for dead last weekend after their loss at Iowa. With the schedule they had remaining we couldn't see a .500 conference record being possible and we didn't even include them on the next four out. Then they go out and pick up yet another top 50 win over Purdue. Their resume has plenty of nice wins, but none have come on the road and they already have 11 losses. They'll get another chance later this week for a good road win up in Minnesota. The next two will also give them a chance to improve on their 2-4 record against middle-of-the-pack/bubble Big Ten teams. The Minnesota game might actually be a little more important than this one since it would give them the season sweep over a suddenly vulnerable Gopher squad.

Maryland at North Carolina State
The Terps played Duke tough for 35 minutes but still ended up with a double-digit loss. Luckily for them, Va Tech was also unable to beat the Blue Devils at home on Saturday. They now have to travel to Raleigh to take on a N.C. State team that has already beaten Wake Forest and Miami on their home court. It likely won't be an easy one for a Maryland team whose only true road win all season came against lowly Georgia Tech. Because of that fact, this game may actually be more important then their Tuesday home matchup with Wake Forest. A .500 conference record is a must and if the Terps can manage to win out and finish 9-7 all they would need is one win in the ACC tourney to be a lock.

Also receiving votes: Marquette at Louisville, Michigan State at Illinois, Missouri at Kansas, Tennessee at Florida, West Virginia at South Florida

Thursday, February 26, 2009

A Four Pack For Thursday

A look at the four most notable games on Thursday's schedule:

Minnesota at Illinois
Minnesota hasn't fallen all the way to bubble status just yet, but they're getting pretty darn close. The Gophers are just 4-6 in their last 10 games (two of those win have come against Indiana) and they've have slipped to 8-7 in the Big Ten and down to the 9 line in our latest bracket. The biggest reason behind their slide has been their awful play on the road. They've lost their last four conference road games (at Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan) and for the season they have just one road win against a Big Ten team that is currently in the field (Wisconsin). That's not a very encouraging trend for Gopher fans, whose team will face another tough road test tonight in Champaign. Before last week's hideous showing against Penn State, the Illini had won six straight conference home games - over the likes of Purdue, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. They enter this game fresh off a nice road win over the Buckeyes on Sunday, and a victory here would keep their slim chance at winning a Big Ten title alive. Illinois sits a game and half back of Michigan State with three games to play. They host the Spartans this weekend before finishing up at Penn State next Thursday. Minnesota would drop to at least a 10 seed with a loss here and will slip closer to the bubble, but we are not of the opinion that they will fall apart and miss the tourney altogether. They have played well at home and they finish with home games against Wisconsin and Michigan; a 1-1 split and one Big Ten tourney win should be enough to get the Gophers a bid.

Purdue at Michigan
We still have no clue why John Beilein benched Manny Harris in overtime against Iowa on Sunday, but we do know this: Michigan's loss to the Hawkeyes may prove crippling to their already slim at-large hopes. The Wolverines are probably going to have to win out to get a bid, and that will be next to impossible given their remaining schedule and their season-long road woes. They host red-hot Purdue, winners of four in a row and 10 of their last 12, tonight and then hit the road for games at Wisconsin and at Minnesota to finish up. The Wolverines have just two true road wins this season, and those wins came at Northwestern and at Indiana. We know it's probably foolish to count Michigan out considering how up-and-down they have been all year, but we find it hard to believe that they are going to play well enough down the stretch to snag one of the final at-large spots. This game is also extremely important to the Boilermakers, who are in a three-way battle for the Big Ten regular season crown. A win would keep them a game behind Michigan State, who they already beat once, with three to play. The two teams face off in East Lansing next Sunday in the regular season finale for both.

West Virginia at Cincinnati
The Bearcats haven't played a game yet this week, but their at-large hopes have already taken a serious hit. Providence's upset of top-ranked Pitt vaulted the the Friars past Cincinnati in the Big East pecking order, and made it imperative that the Bearcats counter with a win here tonight against West Virginia. Cincinnati should be able to win its last two games (at South Florida, home vs. Seton Hall), and will need to win either this game or Sunday's game at Syracuse to finish 10-8 in conference. From there, two Big East will be need for the Bearcats to be in the discussion on Selection Sunday. Cincinnati will have to shoot the ball a lot better - and do a better job on the offensive glass - than they did against Louisville over the weekend if they are going to upset a West Virginia team that has been on fire defensively. The Mountaineers have won three straight games, holding high-scoring Villanova to 72 points, Notre Dame to just 68, and Rutgers to 56. Offensively, they've been riding the hot shooting of Da'Sean Butler, who has averaged over 24 points per game over his last three. A win tonight would give West Virginia a great chance of finishing 11-7 in conference, which would likely be good for a 6 seed in our bracket heading into the Big East tourney.

Arizona State at Washington
This one is a battle for the Pac-10 title. Both teams have a good chance to win out after this game, especially Washington, which makes the result here that much more important. The Sun Devils were able to hold on against Arizona over the weekend to set up this showdown. (By the way, how stupid are ASU students? First they rush the court after beating UCLA, which was a little questionable, then they rush against unranked Arizona?) The last time the Sun Devils lost was when the Huskies visited Tempe. Their five game winning streak has helped them climb to a 4 seed. They don't have much of an OOC resume, but if they are able to win out until Selection Sunday, they will climb to a 3 seed. A win for the Huskies would clearly make them the top team in the Pac-10. Like most Pac-10 teams, their OOC resume features no wins over current tourney teams, so getting above the 4 line may be difficult.

Also receiving votes: Miami at Virginia, North Carolina State at Wake Forest, UCLA at Stanford, Arizona at Washington State, USC at California, Xavier at St. Joseph's, LaSalle at Temple, Memphis at UAB, Hawaii at Utah State, St. Mary's at Pepperdine, Gonzaga at Santa Clara

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

A Six Pack For Wednesday

A look at the six most notable games on Wednesday's schedule:

Connecticut at Marquette
After Pitt's loss last night, there is four-way tie in the loss column atop the Big East standings. Marquette controls its own destiny with games remaining against all the teams they are tied with. This is the only home meeting they have out of the three, so it is probably their best chance for a win. They are currently on the 3 line but have a great chance to climb up with their schedule. They don't have much on their OOC resume so they would have to win out to climb up to the 1 line. The Huskies are the only team left in the country with an undefeated road record, but they haven't fared too well since they lost starting guard Jerome Dyson for the year. His replacement, Craig Austrie, has averaged around six points a game and has only shot 28%, while A. J. Price has only averaged 12 a game and shot 32%. They will need much better guard play if they are going to win the Big East title that they expected to win this year. The loser in this one can probably forget about any chance of winning the Big East title outright.

Duke at Maryland
Terp fans are probably still celebrating the win over UNC and now they get their bitter rival Duke coming in. If the Terps can manage to pull off another upset they would be in great shape for a bid. It would get them to 7-6 in conference, and if they can finish with 9 wins they would be safe. They're going to need another big game out of Greivis Vasquez tonight if they want to get win No. 7. In their last three wins, Vasquez he has averaged almost 24 a game while hitting nearly 50% of his 3's. We expect plenty of "F___ Duke" chants out of the classy Maryland student section. We've mentioned plenty of times how difficult of a schedule Maryland and Virginia Tech have left, but Duke is in the same boat. They have two more road games left with Virginia Tech and UNC and will take on Florida State at home. The Blue Devils are still in the mix for a 1 seed but they will need to win out to get there.

Virginia Tech at Clemson
No bubble team did more damage to their at-large chances than Virginia Tech did last week. The Hokies lost at Virginia and at home to Florida State to fall from an 11 seed to off the Last Eight Out list altogether. They got passed in the ACC pecking order by Maryland and Miami, and with the brutal stretch they have left, they are going to need a minor miracle to get a bid. Their first order of business is to find a way to win at Clemson tonight. They then have the "luxury" of playing Duke and Carolina at home before finishing up with a tough roadie at FSU. Clemson beat the Hokies by four in Blacksburg the first time these two teams played, and a season sweep would just solidify the Tigers' spot on the 2 line. If Clemson can go 2-2 over their last four games (VT, at FSU, Virginia, at Wake), they should be no worse than a 3 seed on Selection Sunday. Unlike previous Clemson teams, who have played a cupcake OOC schedule, this year's team has road wins at Illinois, Miami, and South Carolina and a neutral court win over Temple, all of which the committee will like when they are placing the Tigers in their bracket.

Kentucky at South Carolina
Both of these teams enter the final two weeks of the season with the same goal - go 2-2 in their over their last four games to finish 10-6, win a game in the conference tourney, and (likely) get a bid. At 8-4, the Wildcats and Gamecocks are tied for first place in the SEC East, a half game ahead of Florida. A closer look at their resumes, though, shows that their match-up tonight means a lot more to South Carolina than it does to Kentucky. The Gamecocks have a head-to-head win over Kentucky and a better RPI (44 vs. 62), but overall, they have only one Top 50 win (a home win over the Gators) and no real quality OOC wins (their best win was at Baylor). A loss here means South Carolina would need to win two of its final three games, which are at Vandy, home against Tennessee, and at Georgia, to feel safe. A South Carolina win tonight would knock Kentucky (for the moment) back to a double-digit seed, but wouldn't put them in danger of falling out of the field. Their season sweep of Tennessee, which they completed last week, really helps their at-large chances, as does their five Top 50 wins, their OOC win over West Virginia, and their home win over Florida. After this game, Kentucky hosts LSU on Saturday, and then finishes up next week with games against Georgia at home and against the Gators in Gainesville.

Kansas State at Missouri
In most years, a team with Kansas State's resume wouldn't be in the field right now. But this year, with no one seeming to want the last few at-large spots, the Wildcats are hanging on to one of the final bids - barely. Kansas State's computer numbers aren't pretty - their RPI is 75 and their non-conference SOS is 313 - but they've managed to pick up some big wins in conference to keep themselves in the mix (at Texas, Missouri, at Texas A&M). Their win over Texas looks even nicer now that the Longhorns beat Oklahoma, and their road win at A&M is huge considering the Aggies, after their miracle win at Nebraska, are still very much alive in the Big XII bubble picture. If the Wildcats were to win this game and complete a season sweep of the Tigers, they'd be in great shape to finish 10-6 and get a bid given the schedule they have left (this game, Nebraska, at Oklahoma State, Colorado). A loss here would make their game against the Cowboys a must-win if they want to stay in the at-large discussion. For Missouri, this game is must if they have any hopes at winning the Big XII title. The Tigers, who have won six in a row, currently sit a game a half behind Kansas and a half game behind Oklahoma in the standings. They play the Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse on Sunday and then host the Sooners (and we assume Blake Griffin) next Wednesday.

UNLV at Utah
The Rebels have hung onto an at-large bid even with their MWC struggles because of their strong OOC wins. They are going to have to win a tough road game down the stretch to keep holding on. They got a huge win against BYU over the weekend and now will need to win this one or their last game at SDSU to really solidify their spot in the bracket going into the MWC tourney. The Rebels are tied for 4th in conference right now, which isn't good, and they will need to finish 3rd or better to really like their chances. The Utes, at this point, are more concerned with how high of a seed they can earn. They are two games up in the loss column, and barring a late season collapse, they will win the regular season title. They have a tough schedule left, but if they can win out they will see their seed skyrocket to no lower than a 6.

Also receiving votes: Dayton at Rhode Island, Mississippi State at Tennessee, Rutgers at Notre Dame

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

A Five Pack For Tuesday

A look at the five most notable games on Tuesday's schedule:

Penn State at Ohio State
The roller coaster ride otherwise known at the Penn State basketball season continues. After a two-week hiatus from the bracket, the Nittany Lions jumped back into the field this week after their ugly and stunning road win at Illinois. It was Penn State's second straight win over a tourney-caliber team and it padded a Big Ten resume that now includes wins over the league's top three teams (with two of those wins coming on the road). Even with that impressive conference resume, though, Penn State's bid is still not secure. The Nittany Lions' RPI is a sub-par 62, their non-conference SOS is an atrocious 321, and their best OOC win came against Mount St. Mary's. All of those numbers mean that for Penn State to get a bid, they still might need to win three of their last four games - the toughest of which comes tonight at Ohio State. A win here would almost guarantee Penn State 11 wins in conference, which would make them a lock for a bid. A loss here would put a ton of pressure on the Nittany Lions to beat Illinois on March 5. For Ohio State, this game is the start of a huge week. The Buckeyes have lost three straight, including a head-scratcher at Northwestern on Wednesday, and have fallen to the bottom of the 8 line in our latest bracket. With six Top 50 wins on their resume already, Ohio State is probably safe barring a total collapse down the stretch, but losses here and to Purdue this weekend would mean they could finish no better than 9-9 in conference.

Pittsburgh at Providence
A week ago, Providence was the most attractive Big East bubble team and was an 11 seed in our Field Of 65. Now, after their awful performance at home against Notre Dame, their at-large hopes are on life support. Their 19-point loss to the Irish on Saturday dropped them to 8-7 in conference and behind ND and Cincinnati in the Big East pecking order. To have any chance at a bid, the Friars are going to have to win out, which will be next to impossible given the schedule they have left. Sandwiched around a game at Rutgers is this game, against the new No. 1 team in the country, and a road game at red-hot Villanova. Tonight they face a Pitt team that, if it can win this game, has a good chance of winning out and maybe winning the Big East title. The Panthers host Marquette and UConn next week, and if they win those games and if Louisville (who has the tie-breaker over them) loses once down the stretch, Pitt would get the #1 seed in the Big East tourney and pretty much lock up a spot on the 1 line.

Florida at LSU
Neither of these teams are in danger of falling out of the bracket, but this game is still very important in terms of seeding. LSU, which has now won eight in a row, beat Arkansas and Auburn last week to move up to the 7 line in our latest field. They've feasted on the pathetic SEC West all season en route to their 11-1 SEC record. In any other year, that conference mark would easily be worthy of a much higher seed, but in LSU's case, a non-existent OOC resume and the overall medocrity of the league has really hurt their seeding. Fortunately for the Tigers, they get a couple of chances this week to prove themselves. They host Florida tonight and then play at Kentucky on Saturday, and if they win both games, they will have beaten all four of the other tourney-worthy SEC teams - and they'd likely move up to the 5 line as a result. A win by the Gators here would be huge for their resume as well. They have been floating around the 7-10 lines for almost two months now and they are in desperate need of a marquee road win. Florida has lost its last three SEC roadies (to Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia), and for the season, they have just two true road wins (Vanderbilt and Auburn). Like LSU, the Gators have plenty of opportunities to move up (or down) the bracket over the next two weeks. They host Tennessee on Sunday, and then finish up their regular season next week with a road game at Mississippi State and a home game against Kentucky.

Florida State at Boston College
Do FSU fans know what to do with themselves right now? For the first time in what seems like a decade, the 'Noles are far from the bubble - in a good way - and have their sights on a 4 or maybe even a 3 seed if they can navigate through their tough remaining schedule. FSU won two more big games last week (Miami at home and Virginia Tech on the road) to move to 8-4 in the ACC, and in the process they added to one of the more underrated resumes in the country. Tonight they face a Boston College team that is in a little trouble after suffering a disappointing loss at Miami on Saturday. The loss was BC's third in its last four games and it dropped them down to a 9 seed this week. Unlike FSU, though, BC's remaining schedule after this game is pretty easy, and barring a total collapse, that should help them secure a spot in the field. The Eagles play at N.C. State and at home against Georgia Tech next week to close out their regular season, and if they win out (including tonight) they'll likely get back up to the 7 line. If BC were to lose this game and then lose to the Wolfpack, they would start to be evaluated against Maryland and Miami on the ACC bubble. The Eagles, remember, got swept by the Hurricanes this season, but won at Maryland in the only meeting between the two teams.

BYU at San Diego State
We are in the minority amongst bracketologists in having both of these teams currently out of the field (especially BYU), but if you look at what each team has remaining it is very difficult to come up with a scenario where both teams get an at-large. The Aztecs need to win their last four games (BYU, at TCU, CSU, and UNLV). This is definitely doable, but it got a lot harder when starting forward Billy White went down with a knee injury late weekend; he will be out for this one. If the Aztecs do manage to win out, then they will finish no worse than second place and a trip to the MWC finals would probably be enough for an at-large bid. If SDSU is able to have a 2-0 week they will likely find themselves back in the bracket next week. This is the Cougars' last chance of the season to pick up a good road win in conference. We really don't understand why so many people have the Cougars so safely in the field. All they really have OOC is a win over Utah State, and they have now been swept by UNLV in league play. This game and their next two (at home against Utah and at Wyoming) will really determine their fate. Winning tonight at SDSU would be a great start and would give them the season sweep over the Aztecs. They just need to hope that UNLV losses a couple so that they can finish a few games ahead of the Rebels and be considered second in the MWC pecking order.

Also receiving votes: Syracuse at St. John's, Texas A&M at Nebraska

Monday, February 23, 2009

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Feb. 23

As the season goes on and more games are played, the bracket tends to stabilize, which is exactly what we have seen in the past two weeks. Teams on the top 4-5 seed lines have made their case and and likely won't move more than a seed line up or down week to week. This is especially true of the 1 seeds, since three out of four lost in the last week but they all held on to their 1 seeds. Most of the changes from here on out will be teams going from the last four out line to last four in.

Just a couple of weeks ago, we could never have imagined both Notre Dame and Wisconsin playing their way back into the bracket, but that is exactly what has happened. The Irish picked up a huge road win over the weekend against Providence and ended up taking the Friars' bid. We are expecting the Irish to be able to win out at home, which would include a win over Villanova, which would get them to 9-9 and put them in the best shape of all the Big East bubble teams. Penn State also made its way back into the bracket after their ugly win at Illinois. The Nittany Lions have now beaten the top three teams in the Big Ten, and seven bids out of the Big Ten seems possible. Things still need to break right for the league, though, since four of the seven bids are an 8 seed or worse, and each of these teams could easily play their way out.

We once again downgraded the MWC to two teams. The top teams in the league beat up on each other a bit in the past week and this trend will likely continue given each team's upcoming schedule. At this point we think that it is more likely that the MWC will end up with two bids than three (four bids is insane.) New Mexico has really hurt the conference's chances of getting three bids. They have beaten all three bubble teams at the Pit, but have no chance at an at-large because of their bad losses OOC. The best chance for the conference to get three bids is to have Utah slip up and to have BYU or SDSU go on a run and share the conference title with the Utes. That would put the two teams who split the regular season crown in good shape, and UNLV should be able to at least get to the tourney championship game on their home court and earn a bid as well.

Bracket Breakdown
In This Week
Maryland, Penn State, Notre Dame, Radford, Belmont, Long Beach State, UT-Martin

Out This Week
Providence, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, VMI, Jacksonville, Cal State Northridge, Morehead State

Last Four In
Maryland, Penn State, Kansas State, Notre Dame

Last Four Out
San Diego State, Cincinnati, BYU, Miami (FL)

Next Four Out
Texas A&M, St. Mary's, Providence, UAB

---------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big XII (5), Pac-10 (5), SEC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (2)

America East - Binghamton

ACC - North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Temple, Xavier, Dayton

Big East - Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Notre Dame

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Radford

Big Ten - Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State

Big XII - Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Texas, Kansas State

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - VCU

Conference USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Buffalo

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Creighton

MWC - Utah, UNLV

Northeast - Robert Morris

Ohio Valley - UT-Martin

Pac-10 - Arizona State, Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona

Patriot - American

SEC - LSU, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Stephen F. Austin

Summit - North Dakota State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

SWAC - Alabama State

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s
Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Connecticut, North Carolina

The 2s
Louisville, Clemson, Michigan State, Duke

The 3s
Memphis, Wake Forest, Marquette, Missouri

The 4s
Villanova, Kansas, Arizona State, Purdue

The 5s
Illinois, Florida State, Washington, Gonzaga

The 6s
Xavier, UCLA, Butler, California

The 7s
LSU, Texas, West Virginia, Syracuse

The 8s
Utah, Dayton, Florida, Ohio State

The 9s
Boston College, Arizona, Minnesota, Kentucky

The 10s
Wisconsin, Tennessee, South Carolina, UNLV

The 11s
Utah State, Maryland, Temple, Penn State

The 12s
Kansas State, Siena, Creighton, Notre Dame

The 13s
Davidson, Western Kentucky, VCU, Buffalo

The 14s
Binghamton, Weber State, North Dakota State, American

The 15s
Stephen F. Austin, Cornell, Radford, Belmont

The 16s
Long Beach State, Morgan State, UT-Martin, Robert Morris (Play-In Game), Alabama State (Play-In-Game)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)

Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

A Two Pack For Monday

A look at the two most notable games on Monday's schedule:

Kansas at Oklahoma
Thanks to the right hand of Dexter Pittman, this game just got a whole lot more interesting. It was Pittman's enormous paw that knocked Blake Griffin out of Saturday's game against Texas with a concussion and, despite the best efforts of Willie Warren, helped the Longhorns pick up a much-needed win. The loss dropped OU into a tie atop the Big XII standings with the Jayhawks, who pay a visit to Norman tonight. Griffin's status for the game is being called "iffy" right now, but the fact that he hasn't been ruled out yet makes us think he'll be good to go. If he does play, and if he shows no ill effects from the consussion, Oklahoma should be able to win this one at home. If Kansas were to pull the upset (Griffin or no Griffin), they would find themselves in the driver's seat to win the Big XII title and they would likely jump over Duke for the final spot on the 2 line next week. Looking forward, Kansas' schedule is a little bit easier down the stretch than Oklahoma's. The Jayhawks still have to face Missouri and Texas, but both of those games are at home, while Oklahoma has to play at Missouri next week. Even with a loss here, Oklahoma would probably hang on to their 1 seed next week. No one else really has the credentials to be a 1 seed right now, plus the Sooners would still have to be looked at as the favorite to win the Big XII tournament.

UPDATE (5 p.m.): Griffin will not play tonight against the Jayhawks.

Louisville at Georgetown
The Hoyas missed out a golden opportunity to get themselves back into the field on Saturday, going ice cold over the final eight minutes and losing at home to Marquette. The loss dropped Georgetown to 5-9 in conference and means the Hoyas will now need to win out if they want a bid. Winning out would include a win tonight against Louisville and a win at Villanova this weekend. That's not an easy task, especially considering the way the Cardinals have played since their embarrassing loss in South Bend. They've won three in a row, including two convincing wins last week over Providence at home and Cincinnati on the road, and if they can win this game, they would have to be the favorite to win the Big East regular season title (remember they beat Pitt in the teams' lone meeting.) If they win the regular season crown and then make the finals of the Big East tourney, they would be right there in the discussion for a 1 seed come Selection Sunday. To beat Georgetown, the Cardinals will need Samardo Samuels to neutralize Greg Monroe inside, and they'll need Terrence Williams to continue his brilliant play of late. Williams had 17 points, six recounds and eight assists against the Friars on Wednesday night and 20 points, eight rebounds, and five assists against the Bearcats on Saturday.

Also receiving votes: UT-Martin at Murray State

Sunday, February 22, 2009

A Quick Bracketbuster Recap

Here's how the "major" mid-major conferences fared in their Bracketbuster games:

WCC 2-0
MVC 7-3
Colonial 8-4
MAAC 6-4
WAC 5-4
Horizon 5-5
MAC 4-8

The biggest individual winners of Bracketbuster weekend were Butler, St. Mary's and Siena. The Bulldogs solidified their at-large chances - and all but locked up an at-large bid if they need it - by winning easily at Davidson. The Gaels dominated Utah State for most of their game en route to their first big Patty Mills-less victory, while the Saints stated their case by cruising past Northern Iowa at home. The Saints were up 22 at the half over the much slower Panthers, before UNI hit some 3s late to make it close.

Overall, the Valley's 7-3 record in its Bracketbuster games was perhaps the biggest surprise. That record is little deceiving, though, when you consider that only one of the league's top three teams picked up a win (Creighton beat George Mason). The league's other two postseason hopefuls lost to teams from the MAAC - UNI to Siena and Illinois State to Niagara. The top of the Colonial also didn't fare that well - VCU lost at Nevada and Mason lost to Creighton - but Northeastern, Hoftstra, and ODU all won to help the Colonial to a respectable 8-4 record.

The MAC had the worst day of all the mid-major conferences. Buffalo lost at Vermont, Miami (OH) lost at Evansville, and Akron lost at Valparaiso, a team that had won just five games coming in.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

B101's Top 12 Games To Watch This Weekend

A look at the 12 biggest games on this loaded Bracketbuster weekend:

Saturday's Games
Butler at Davidson
This is still the biggest Bracketbuster game on this weekend's schedule, but it has certainly lost some luster over the past few days. Davidson played awful against The Citadel at home on Wednesday, scoring just 46 points without an injured Stephen Curry in an 18-point loss. Butler, meanwhile, lost at Milwaukee and now enters this game riding a two-game losing streak. If Curry is unable to play, this game loses much of its appeal. If he does play, it should be a competitive game, but not a game that will do too much damage to the at-large hopes of the loser. Even if Davidson were to lose in the Southern conference tournament, they will almost certainly get a bid. There is no way the selection committee is going to leave the nation's leading scorer out of the tournament if that player's team is right on the bubble, especially if that player has the national appeal that Curry has. The committee will never admit this, but it will definitely impact their decision to include Davidson. Butler may not have a player of Curry's stature, but they do have a resume that is worthy of an at-large if they need it. The Bulldogs have a marquee win (at Xavier), a solid RPI (27) and they would be the regular season champion in the 10th-rated conference in the country. Between the two, Davidson will be sweating it out a little more on Selection Sunday if they need an at-large. In the end, though, we are very confident that the Wildcats - and the Bulldogs - will get a bid.

Utah State at St. Mary's
The second biggest Bracketbuster game of the day takes place in Moraga, where the WAC-leading Aggies visit the desperate Gaels. It's a must-win for St. Mary's, who needs to prove to the committee that they can beat a quality opponent without Patty Mills. It's also a ginormous game for Utah State, especially if the Aggies are unable to win the WAC tournament. If a scenario unfolds where Utah State wins this game, wins out, but loses in the WAC tourney, they would be a fascinating case come Selection Sunday. They would be an eerily similar spot to where they were after the '03-'04 season. That Utah State team, which lost in the first round of the Big West tournament, finished 24-3 overall, 17-1 in the 18th-rated Big West. They had a 43 RPI and a win over a BYU team that made the NCAA tourney on their resume - and they didn't get a bid. This year's team, if the Aggies were to win out, would finish 24-3 overall and 15-1 in the 12th-rated WAC. They'd have a mid-30s RPI (their RPI is 34 right now), and a resume that includes a win over tourney-bound Utah. Would their fate be any different than the '03-'04 squad? Is an appearance in the WAC final all they need to feel safe? In our opinion, that's all they need to do to get a bid...but then again we also thought the '03-'04 Aggies would be dancing, too.

Northern Iowa at Siena
Of all the bubble teams playing Bracketbuster games today, the team with the most to lose might be Siena. The Saints, as everyone knows, played a challenging OOC schedule, but weren't able to add a single big win to their resume. They did beat Buffalo, Boise State, Cornell, and St. Joseph's out of conference, but none of those wins are real resume-builders. Since conference play started, they've dominated the MAAC, losing just one game (at Rider) and winning most of their games by double digits. They will enter the MAAC tournament as the clear favorite, but if they don't win it, they are going to be an extremely tough call on Selection Sunday. If they can't beat UNI today, especially at home, their chances at an at-large are slim. If they do win this game, though, and then win out but lose in the finals of the MAAC tourney, strong cases could be made for and against them getting a bid. Would the NCAA reward them for a tough schedule and top-35 RPI, or would they punish them for not winning any of those games? It's a real tough call, but if you're a Siena fan and your team doesn't get the automatic bid, one thing's for sure - you better hope a lot of big conference bubble teams lose early in their conference tournaments if you want to be smiling on Selection Sunday.

Big East bubble battles (Notre Dame at Providence, Louisville at Cincinnati, Marquette at Georgetown)
Between the Big East and ACC, there are eight bubble teams who have huge games today. The bubble battle of the day may be the one between Notre Dame and Providence. We hate to use the term "must win" but that is exactly the kind of game the Irish have today. Their slim at-large hopes would be virtually destroyed with a loss, since it would give them nine conference losses with a trip to UConn coming up next weekend. The Friars have Pitt coming in on Tuesday and if they can manage to win these next two they would be sitting pretty with 10 conference wins. The Bearcats and Hoyas are in a similar position to Providence. The Bearcats play West Virginia later this week, while the Hoyas have Louisville on Big Monday. Cincinnati is 0-6 vs. Big East teams in our current bracket, while Georgetown has not beaten a top 100 RPI team in well over a month. Both teams will need to win two of their next three (Cincinnati plays at Syracuse and Georgetown plays at 'Nova next weekend) to have any chance at a bid.

ACC bubble battles (Florida State at Virginia Tech, Boston College at Miami, North Carolina at Maryland)
It is make or break today for all of these ACC home bubble teams. It's the last game in Miami's brutal six-game stretch in which they have gone 1-4. The Hurricanes need to win out to get to 8-8 in ACC play and have a chance at an at-large. A win over the Eagles would give them the season sweep and get them going back in the right direction, but we still don't like their chances down the stretch. A win for the Eagles would put them in great shape with the easy conference schedule that they have left, and their fans could start thinking more about how high a seed the team can earn. This is the first of two late season matchups between FSU and Virginia Tech. The Hokies may need to win both of the matchups with the brutal finishing stretch they have (at Clemson, Duke, UNC). The Seminoles' regular season finish isn't much easier, but a win in Blacksburg would really take a lot of the pressure off and may get them back up to the 5 line they were on last week. No one may have more to gain with a win today than Maryland, and looking ahead, no one else in the nation has more of an opportunity than the Terps do to get big wins down the stretch. They have Duke coming in on Wednesday and Wake Forest coming in the week after, and the two road games they have left are relatively easy (at N.C. State and at Virginia). If the Terps can finish up by winning four of their last five, our friends at Terpcenter Radio will get their wish. Their team will be dancing.

MWC bubble battles (San Diego State at New Mexico, BYU at UNLV)
The Aztecs made their first bracket appearance two weeks ago after upsetting UNLV in Vegas. At the time, they were tied for first with a favorable schedule remaining to at least split a regular season MWC title. The game at New Mexico is probably their toughest game left and the Aztecs need to win it to keep their MWC and at-large hopes alive. We are basically the only ones left with BYU not in our bracket. That's because we still don't think the MWC has any chances for four bids in the end and because the Cougars have such a difficult schedule remaining. Their trip to Vegas today and their trip to San Diego later this week will determine their fate. If they can manage to win either one of those games, then we would have to insert them into the bracket over whichever team they beat. The Rebels suffered a devastating road loss this week at Wyoming and continue to slide down the MWC standings. Their good OOC wins (Arizona and at Louisville) will only take them so far. With the schedule they have remaining, they are in big risk of not even getting to double-digit wins in conference. This game against the Cougars is a must win for them since it would give them the season sweep and place them clearly ahead of BYU in the MWC pecking order.

Oklahoma at Texas
After picking up early season wins over UCLA, Villanova, and Wisconsin, Texas looked like it was good enough to challenge Oklahoma for the Big XII title. Things have changed a little bit since then. The (top-ranked) Sooners have lost a grand total of once all season and are considered by many people to be the best team in the country. The Longhorns, meanwhile, have been plagued by some spotty point guard play and are now fighting just to stay off the bubble. They've lost four of their last six games, and their blowout loss at A&M on Monday dropped them to an unimpressive 6-5 in conference. They have yet to beat a Big XII team that is currently in our bracket, which is not a good sign considering the not-so-easy schedule they have left. Their toughest test comes tonight when Oklahoma pays a visit to Austin. The Sooners won by 15 the first time these two teams played, snapping a six-game losing streak to the Longhorns in the process. If Texas can't beat their Red River rivals again tonight, there's a good chance they'll be a double-digit seed come Monday. A win by Oklahoma will make them the top overall seed in our next Field Of 65.

Tennessee at Kentucky
Do either of these teams want to make the tournament? They certainly aren't playing like it. The Wildcats have now dropped four of six after their 13-point loss at Vandy on Tuesday night, and the Volunteers, who some RPI-loving bracketologists still have at a 6 seed, are just 4-4 over their last eight games following their blowout loss Wednesday night at lowly Mississippi. Kentucky's RPI is down to 65 after the Vandy loss, and they are in serious trouble bracket-wise if they don't beat the Vols at home. A loss here and they'll be no better than Last Four In next week, and there's a pretty good chance they won't be in the bracket at all. If Tennessee loses, their decent OOC resume, 2nd-ranked SOS, and 22 RPI will keep them in the field, but they'll be no better than an 11 seed. If they plan on getting a single-digit seed on Selection Sunday, they better start winning some SEC road games. They have no quality road wins in conference yet, and they still have to play at Florida and at South Carolina.

Washington at USC
If Kentucky loses to Tennessee today, the biggest beneficiary might be USC. The Trojans slipped out of the bracket last week after getting swept in Arizona, but they took care of business Thursday night against Washington State and now get a chance at a resume-building win over the Pac-10-leading Huskies. If USC wins, there's a very good chance they finish 11-7 in conference, which should get them a bid. They hit the road next week for a huge set of games at Cal and Stanford and then return home for the Oregon schools to finish up. If they can win one of those two road games, which won't be easy given their 2-6 road record, all they'll need to do is win a game in the Pac-10 tournament to feel safe. If they can't win one of those road games, they are going to have to do some damage in the conference tourney to get a bid. A 10-8 conference record and one Pac-10 tourney win won't be good enough for the Trojans, whose best OOC win came against North Dakota State.

Also receiving votes: Arkansas at South Carolina, Auburn at LSU, Vanderbilt at Florida, Nebraska at Kansas, Kansas State at Iowa State, Texas A&M at Texas Tech, Memphis at UTEP, Dayton at Saint Louis

Also receiving votes (Bracketbuster edition): George Mason at Creighton, Miami (OH) at Evansville, Hofstra at Fairfield, Wisconsin-Green Bay at Long Beach State, Liberty at Old Dominion, Boise State at Portland State, Buffalo at Vermont, Northeastern at Wright State

Sunday's Games
Wake Forest at Duke
These two teams have struggled of late with each dropping three of their last six, but with strong finishes, both teams have a chance to climb back onto the one line. We're sure everyone remembers the last time these two met, when Wake hit a last second layup to bring Duke's short reign as #1 to an end. That game was less than a month ago, but it seems like a lot longer with the way each team has played since then. Wake has been awful on the road lately having dropped three in a row to Georgia Tech, Miami, and N.C. State. For that reason alone you have to like Duke in this one. The Blue Devils need this win to stay in the hunt for second place in the ACC, especially with the difficult schedule they have remaining. The loser of this one will put itself out of the discussion for a #1 seed and will also have to worry about playing on Day 1 of the conference tourney.

Wisconsin at Michigan State
The Big Ten is the only conference where all the bubble teams have had promising results in the past week. This has led some bracketologists to give the conference a ridiculous and almost impossible eight bids in their late week brackets. The Big Ten may be strong this year, but should nearly 75% of their teams make the tourney? The Badgers are in the midst of a five-game winning streak that moved them from extended bubble to solidly in. A win in East Lansing would put them not only in 4th place in the conference standings, but also 4th in the Big Ten pecking order. The Spartans are coming off a road loss against Purdue and need the win to stay a game up on the Boilermakers in the standings. Michigan State was the top 2 seed going into the week and they will probably need to win out, with the schedule they have left, to really get any consideration for a 1 seed.

Arizona at Arizona State
The Wildcats are another team who has recently climbed off the extended bubble and into the field. Their seven-game winning streak is by far their longest of the season. The most noticeable aspect of that winning streak was the fact that five of the seven games came at home and the lone road trip was to the lowly Oregon schools. If you look at it with the glass half full, you could say that Arizona is on a seven-game win streak in which they picked up their first two road wins of the season. Now they face their longest road trip of the season, with games at the Washington schools later looking this coming week. Even if the Wildcats only come up with one victory in the three game roadie they will likely still be fine, so long as they close out the year with two wins at home against the Bay Area schools (that would give them 11 conference wins.) The Sun Devils need to keep their focus on this matchup instead of on the upcoming battle they have with first place Washington on Thursday. Their star sophomore and Pac-10 leading scorer, James Harden, will likely need to take a more active role then he has in the past few games. He has only averaged 12 points over his last three games, which is will below his 20+ point scoring average for the season. If the Sun Devils can pull off the victory, it would give them two straight season sweeps over the Wildcats, which has never happened.

Also receiving votes: Villanova at Syracuse, Illinois at Ohio State, Michigan at Iowa, Northwestern at Minnesota

Friday, February 20, 2009

Bracketology 101 On The Air

On Thursday, we appeared on Terpcenter Radio, an ESPN Radio affiliate in Maryland, to discuss a host of bracketology-related topics with host Mike Brody. Among the topics discussed were: how Bracketology 101 got its start, how our "projection-prediction" seeding method works, Maryland's tournament chances, the ACC's quest for eight bids, the state of the bubble, the big conference vs. mid-major at-large debate, and more.

To listen to the full 14-minute interview, click here.