It's been a while since our Preseason Field of 65, and as could be expected, there are a ton of changes to our latest bracket. Putting together the field before teams have started or gotten into the teeth of conference play is still tough, but the following is how we see things bracket-wise right now.You'll notice that some teams have essentially "earned" their ranking and are seeded where they are because of one or more huge non-conference wins (see: Michigan, Minnesota), while others are hanging on to a decent seed line or are still in the field because even though their resume is weak right now (see: Louisville, Florida, Kansas), we project that once conference play starts, they will regroup and do enough damage to get in.
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Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In
Florida State, California, Kansas, Creighton
Last Four Out
Missouri, UAB, Stanford, USC
Next Four Out
Boston College, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Washington
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Conference Breakdown
Big East (9), ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big XII (5), Pac-10 (4), SEC (4), A-10 (2), MVC (2), MWC (2), WCC (2)
America East - Vermont
ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Maryland, Florida State
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State
A-10 - Xavier, Dayton
Big East - Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, Marquette, West Virginia
Big Sky - Portland State
Big South - VMI
Big Ten - Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois
Big XII - Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, Texas A&M, Kansas
Big West - Pacific
Colonial - VCU
Conference USA - Memphis
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
MAC - Buffalo
MEAC - Hampton
MVC - Illinois State, Crieghton
MWC - UNLV, BYU
Northeast - Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay
Pac-10 - UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona, California
Patriot - American
SEC - Tennessee, Florida, LSU, Kentucky
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Stephen F. Austin
Summit - North Dakota State
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
SWAC - Alabama State
WAC - Utah State
WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
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The Seeds
The 1s
North Carolina, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma
The 2s
Duke, Ohio State, Syracuse, Texas
The 3s
Michigan State, Notre Dame, UCLA, Clemson
The 4s
Tennessee, Purdue, Wake Forest, Gonzaga
The 5s
Xavier, Georgetown, Baylor, Arizona State
The 6s
Villanova, Davidson, Michigan, Louisville
The 7s
Arizona, St. Mary's, Minnesota, Texas A&M
The 8s
Florida, Memphis, Miami (FL), Marquette
The 9s
Butler, Maryland, Illinois, Wisconsin
The 10s
UNLV, LSU, West Virginia, Kentucky
The 11s
BYU, Dayton, Illinois State, Florida State
The 12s
California, Kansas, Creighton, Western Kentucky
The 13s
Utah State, VCU, Buffalo, Siena
The 14s
VMI, Pacific, Stephen F. Austin, Vermont
The 15s
North Dakota State, Portland State, East Tennessee State, American
The 16s
Cornell, Central Connecticut State, Austin Peay, Hampton (Play-In Game), Alabama State (Play-In Game)
The Bracket
Bracket coming soon...
Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com
5 comments:
I agree in general with the teams chosen; however, I take exception to some of the seedings given that you guys utilize a projection/prediction model.
Do you really think Ohio State and Syracuse are #2 seeds in March? Syracuse has zero style points in their victories and Ohio State's two best wins have been against Miami (McClinton ejected early) and Notre Dame (overrated; Harangody played well but had pneumonia)
I think Portland State deserves better than a #15 seed for winning in Spokane and for playing Washington to the buzzer.
On the flipside, I like #4 seed for Wake Forest. Many will overrate them because they are crushing inferior competition. They have loads of talent (are also young and have an inexperienced coach) but must be on fraud alert. I have a feeling that once they lose, it may be the start of a tumble.
Also, the spineless committee won't pit the MEAC and SWAC champs together in a play-in game even if they are the 2 worst teams in the field. The NCAA decides to display its cultural sensitivity in this fashion rather than influencing the hiring of qualified minority coaches.
Keep up the great work! I love what you guys do.
We aren't huge fans of Syracuse or Ohio State being on the 2 line either, but there really aren't any teams worthy of being there right now (Gonzaga was on there until last night). We ended up going with Syracuse because, despite their lack of style points, they do have wins over Florida, Kansas, and Memphis, and this year, the third place team in the stacked Big East very well could get a two seed. Ohio State made it on the two line because of the wins you mentioned and the fact that the Big Ten champ (OSU or MSU) deserves at least a two seed down the road (they might even get a one with how strong the conference has been so far).
You may be right about Portland State; they could be a 14 very easily. Their conference RPI is holding them back though, and when it comes down to seeding the 13-16 seeds in March, conference RPI proves to be very important.
We're with you on the MEAC/SWAC play-in game. It probably won't happen for the reasons you mentioned, but it should. Based on conference RPI, Central Connecticut State (Northeast) or Austin Peay (Ohio Valley) would be the likely candidates to replace the MEAC or SWAC "champ."
I would echo the previous poster's comments, especially with regard to Syracuse. While I totally agree the Big East is strong enough to end up with three teams on the top two lines, I would have to say that based on resumes and statistics, both Notre Dame (Texas) and Georgetown (Maryland, Memphis) look more like the third team than Syracuse does.
Obviously we'll know a lot more once the BE season gets underway, but those are just my thoughts at this point.
Looks like a tight season. I don't see Ark at 9-1 vs Ok . They should be in by your standards. Best teams this year are spread between 6 conf. That will make it tough to rate. (don't play each other)
Do you really think that their is only going to be three from the pac 10??? Give me a break one its one of the better conferences and their is no way we only get three.
Great blog guys.
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