Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Feb. 11

The Breakdown
Sorry it took so long to get this posted. It has been difficult lately trying to get together and make a bracket with one of us on Iraq time and the other one on East Coast time. Hopefully next week we will have it up at the normal time (early Monday morning).

There weren't too many changes to the bracket this week. Both Maryland and Mississippi State were able to get some much needed victories and thus secured their spots in the bracket for the time being. Cal got blown out at home by Oregon, which killed its hopes at making the bracket this week, while Illinois State couldn't close it out against Drake and likely destroyed their slim chances at an at-large bid. The Bears and Redbirds were replaced in this week's bracket by Arizona State and N.C. State. ASU recovered nicely from their five-game losing streak by winning at Arizona. It was a close call between ASU and Oregon for the final Pac-10 bid, but we went with the Sun Devils for a couple of reasons: despite a much worse RPI than Oregon, ASU has a better overall record and a slightly easier schedule left. Both teams will have plenty of opportunities down the stretch to pick up big wins and play their way into the field. N.C. State didn't exactly play their way into the field this week since they had another one of their typical one loss, one win weeks. But with their schedule down the stretch we think they have a good chance to get to at least .500 in the ACC and they have some great opportunities to pick up big wins (Clemson, Duke, and UNC all coming in).

UMass remains on the outside looking in. It was really a coin toss between our last team in the field, St. Joes, and the Minutemen. The Hawks hold on for now because of their season sweep over UMass. Syracuse failed in its attempt to pick up a big win against UConn this week. They have another shot at one this weekend with Georgetown coming in. After that their remaining schedule is brutal (@Louisville, @ND, Pitt, @Seton Hall, Marquette) so we don't like their chances getting to at least 10-8 in conference play, which is what it is going to take to get an at-large out of the Big East. As for the MVC, we hate to have the 8th rated conference in the country receive only one bid, but right now we'd have to take Drake over the field in the conference tourney and no one is deserving of at at-large. Creighton has a chance to get back into the at-large discussion if they can go on a run. They have the opportunity to pick up some nice wins down the stretch (@Oral Roberts, @Illinois St.) which would give a boost to their RPI and make their resume more at-large worthy. They will have to at least tie for second in conference to have any real chance.

Note: None of Monday’s results were taken into account when making this week's bracket.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Out This Bracket
California, Illinois State, Rider, Northern Arizona, Jacksonville

In This Bracket
North Carolina State, Arizona State, Siena, Portland State, Belmont

Last Four In
Ohio State, Arizona State, North Carolina State, St. Joseph's

Last Four Out
Massachusetts, Syracuse, Oregon, Houston

Next Four Out
Miami-FL, Creighton, California, George Mason

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (7), Big XII (6), Pac-10 (6), SEC (6), Big Ten (5), ACC (5), A-10 (4), MWC (2), WCC (2)

America East - UMBC

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Maryland, N.C. State

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Joseph's

Big East - Georgetown, Connecticut, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Louisville, West Virginia

Big Sky - Portland State

Big South - UNC-Asheville

Big Ten - Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State

Big 12 - Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Baylor

Big West - Pacific

Colonial - VCU

C-USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Drake

MWC - UNLV, BYU

Northeast - Sacred Heart

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay

Pac-10 - UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona, USC, Arizona State

Patriot - Lafayette

SEC - Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi Mississippi State

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Stephen F. Austin

Summit - Oral Roberts

Sun Belt - South Alabama

SWAC - Alabama State

WAC - Utah State

WCC - St. Mary's, Gonzaga

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s

Memphis, Duke, Kansas, Tennessee

The 2s
North Carolina, UCLA, Texas, Stanford

The 3s
Georgetown, Michigan State, Xavier, Drake

The 4s
Wisconsin, Connecticut, Kansas State, Indiana

The 5s
Butler, Texas A&M, St. Mary's, Notre Dame

The 6s
Purdue, Louisville, Washington State, Pittsburgh

The 7s
Arizona, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Gonzaga

The 8s
Rhode Island, Marquette, Baylor, Clemson

The 9s
Dayton, Florida, Mississippi, USC

The 10s
Maryland, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Oklahoma

The 11s
UNLV, BYU, Ohio State, North Carolina State

The 12s
Arizona State, St. Joseph's, Kent State, South Alabama

The 13s
VCU, Davidson, Utah State, Oral Roberts

The 14s
Stephen F. Austin, Siena, Pacific, Cornell

The 15s
UNC-Asheville, Lafayette, Portland State, Morgan State

The 16s
UMBC, Belmont, Sacred Heart, Austin Peay (Play-In Game), Alabama State (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)












Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

111 comments:

Anonymous said...

FINALLY.....someone has the guts to put Ohio St. in the last four in category. It's about time, someone understands that this team is seriously on the bubble, and needs to win some big games down the stretch. "Genious" Joe Lanardi had them going from a 10 seed to a 9 seed this week, which is an absolute joke. He also had a strugggggling Oklahoma team moving up to a 9 as well. I really hope the comittee does not even look at his bracket for guidance.

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Anonymous said...

Question....I know this is very hypothetical, but I am just very curious. If MD were to pull off the upset tonight at Cameron, which is very possible, considering they dominated them for a half a few weeks ago, only to let 2nd half turnovers and duke's ability to get offensive rebounds lose it for them, where would that put them in the bracket? Also, would this almost make them a lock for the tourney barring any MAJOR setbacks. This would give them wins at UNC and at Duke, something very few teams in the country could accomplish. I know they had a terrible start to the season, but i would say an above .500 ACC record combined with those 2 road wins, I'd have to say they're a lock. Your thoughts appreciated.

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Lunardi has made some interesting selections in the past few weeks and has seeded a few teams very oddly (like this week having Vandy a 10 and Arkansas a 7).

Purdue sure has come on strong. They will get a nice seed bump, as long as they get by Northwestern this weekend, and could end up being the highest seeded Big Ten team in the bracket.

If Maryland were able to pull off the upset at Duke tonight then it would be hard to imagine a scenario in which they do not get a tourney bid. That kind of win would also give their seed about a 3 line boost.

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