The Breakdown 
Does any bubble team want to make the tournament? The answer this past week was a resounding “no,” as a ton of teams on the 9-12 lines lost one or more games. When the dust cleared, a couple of major changes were made to the bracket, and then we were left scrounging to find teams to put on our Last Four Out and Next Four Out lists.
Even after terrible weeks, Florida and Ohio State managed to stay in this week's field, in large part because there weren't any other teams out there that could take their place. The Buckeyes and Gators were lucky, but two other major conference teams were not. After losses to Alabama and Auburn, Mississippi fell to 3-7 in the SEC and fell out of this week’s bracket. North Carolina State also dropped a pair of games – at Boston College and at home against Clemson – and was knocked out as well. Those losses left two empty spots, and stepping up to fill them was, believe it or not, the much-maligned ACC. Thanks to its upset of Duke on Sunday night, Wake Forest jumped into the field this week, as did Miami-FL (remember them?) after the ‘Canes were able to win their only game of the week at Georgia Tech. Even though Miami is still only 4-6 in conference, we think they have an excellent chance of being on the right side of the bubble come Selection Sunday. They have a very favorable schedule left, including two chances at big wins this week with Duke and Maryland coming in. Their last three games of the year (Virginia, Boston College, @ Florida State) are also very easy and should help give them a late push toward 8-8, which would get them in.
Noticeably absent from this week’s Field of 65 is Syracuse which, despite losing to South Florida early in the week, bounced back in a big way by upsetting Georgetown at the Carrier Dome on Saturday. That win almost certainly put the Orange in everyone’s field this week, but we think that including them – even off a huge win – is still extremely short-sided. Syracuse has a very good chance of going 0-2 this week as they head to Louisville and Notre Dame. Two losses would drop them to 17-11 and 7-8 in the Big East with a lot of work left to get to 9-9. Their well-documented remaining schedule is brutal, and in the end, we just don’t think the Orange are consistent enough to get it done. Winning at home against an up-and-down Georgetown team is one thing; winning the games they have left on the road is another. We’ll see what happens, but we are sticking to our guns and keeping ‘Cuse out.
A few other things to keep an eye on: Houston is shaping up to be a fascinating case come Selection Sunday. If they can win at UAB on Wednesday, and then win out but lose to Memphis in the C-USA title game, they will be one of the most debated at-large teams in recent memory. The Cougars would have no Top 50 wins but no bad losses, and would have lost to the top ranked team in the country in three of their six losses...
In the Pac-10, meanwhile, Cal and Oregon continue to fight to be the league’s seventh bid. Neither team is worthy of a spot just yet, but both have chances this week to bolster their resumes as the Ducks head to the L.A. schools and Cal travels to Stanford. Cal’s win at Arizona State last week was huge for their profile…
In the Horizon, keep an eye on streaking Wright State. The Raiders have won 10 in a row and they still have potentially resume-building road games left at Illinois State (in their BracketBuster game) and at Butler (who they already beat once). Could they steal a second bid from the Horizon again this year? Consider this a heads up...
In the MAC, Kent State continues to win games, and is creeping more and more into the at-large picture. Their resume isn’t eye-popping, and we all know the MAC’s track record for getting multiple bids is awful, but keep in mind that the Golden Flashes do have OOC victories over Illinois State and George Mason and do have a huge BracketBuster game at St. Mary’s coming up. If they could ever find a way to win that game and then make it to the MAC championship game, their RPI would be in the mid 30s, they would have an obscene amount of wins, and they would have an extremely good chance at a bid…
Finally, in the MWC – keep in mind that we have UNLV in as the automatic bid because we like their chances to win the conference tourney on their home floor. If they don’t win it, their at-large profile is not great, and they very well may not get a bid…
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Out This BracketMississippi, North Carolina State, Utah State, Pacific, UNC-Asheville, Lafayette, Sacred Heart
In This BracketWake Forest, Miami-FL, New Mexico State, CS-Fullerton, Winthrop, American, Robert Morris
Last Four InFlorida, St. Joseph’s, Miami-FL, Ohio State
Last Four Out
Syracuse, Houston, California, Oregon
Next Four OutMississippi, New Mexico, Wright State, Western Kentucky
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Conference BreakdownBig East (7), ACC (6), Big XII (6), Pac-10 (6), A-10 (4), Big Ten (5), SEC (5), MWC (2), WCC (2)
America East - UMBC
ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Maryland, Wake Forest, Miami-FL
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
A-10 - Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Joseph's
Big East - Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Big Sky - Portland State
Big South - Winthrop
Big Ten - Purdue, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
Big 12 - Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Baylor
Big West - CS-Fullerton
Colonial - VCU
C-USA - Memphis
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Morgan State
MVC - Drake
MWC - UNLV, BYU
Northeast - Robert Morris
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay
Pac-10 - UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona, USC, Arizona State
Patriot - American
SEC - Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Florida
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Stephen F. Austin
Summit - Oral Roberts
Sun Belt - South Alabama
SWAC - Alabama State
WAC - New Mexico State
WCC - St. Mary's, Gonzaga
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The SeedsThe 1sMemphis, Tennessee, Duke, Kansas
The 2sTexas, North Carolina, UCLA, Connecticut
The 3sStanford, Xavier, Purdue, Wisconsin
The 4sGeorgetown, Indiana, Butler, Louisville
The 5sDrake, Washington State, St. Mary’s, Michigan State
The 6sNotre Dame, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Clemson
The 7sMarquette, Texas A&M, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh
The 8sMississippi State, Arkansas, Arizona, BYU
The 9sRhode Island, West Virginia, Oklahoma, USC
The 10sMaryland, Baylor, Dayton, UNLV
The 11sArizona State, Kent State, Wake Forest, Florida
The 12sSt. Joseph’s, Miami-FL, Ohio State, South Alabama
The 13sDavidson, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, Oral Roberts
The 14sNew Mexico State, CS-Fullerton, Siena, Cornell
The 15sWinthrop, Portland State, Belmont, American
The 16sRobert Morris, UMBC, Morgan State, Austin Peay (Play-In Game), Alabama State (Play-In Game)
The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
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