As conference play continued this week and teams continued to struggle mightily on the road (UCLA, Texas A&M, Oregon, etc.) , the amount of teams on the bubble rose to record size. The SEC and the ACC continued to be the toughest conferences to figure, and both leagues saw several teams make major movements in this week's bracket.
The SEC was the most fluid conference of the week. After weeks of being in the bracket based solely on potential and not performance, Alabama and (especially) LSU are finally on the outisde looking in. Alabama's non-existent OOC resume and its second loss this season to Arkansas knocked them out, while LSU's inability to win a game period sent them to the outer edges of the bubble. Vanderbilt continued its strong play this week and moved up two seeds lines while Georgia, fresh off wins over Kentucky and LSU, makes its bracket debut. Tennessee and Arkansas are in a virtual tie in our minds as the fifth and sixth teams out of the conference. The SEC should be a six-team league, but the Vols and Razorbacks need to pick it up to make sure that in the end they are two of the six.
The other interesting conference this week proved to be the ACC. Last week, we took Boston College out of the backet, citing Sean Williams' suspension and the Eagles' tough February stretch of conference games as reasons why. BC's win over Florida State this week, though, changed those projections. By winning that game and finishing the week at 6-2 in conference, the Eagles, we now believe, have a great chance of getting to 9-7 and earning a bid. Their end of the season stretch is tough, but needing three wins versus needing four is a huge difference. BC's game at Miami on Feb. 7 is one win, and they can definitely win two more, expecially with four games left at home. Georgia Tech's 0-2 week, and 2-5 mark in conference, knocked them out this week. The Yellow Jackets were replaced by a hot Virginia team that extended its ACC winning streak to four with victories over NC State and Clemson.
Our final major projection change came in the Colonial. After weeks of calling the CAA a one-bid league, both Hofstra and VCU are in this week's bracket. VCU finally picked up some quality road wins this week, including a huge win over at-large hopeful Drexel. Those wins, and a tough-to-ignore 10-0 mark in conference, have us believing now in their at-large hopes. VCU and Hofstra, who we still project as the tournament champ, face of in a battle for Colonial suppremacy Wednesday at Hofstra.
The other mid-major stories of note this week were in the MWC and MVC. BYU's win over Air Force earned the Cougars a spot on the Last Four Out list, and it makes their showdown with UNLV Saturday even more ginormous. With a two-win week, BYU will make the MWC a three-team league next bracket. In the MVC, parity continues to be a problem. Southern Illinois and Creighton have pulled two games clear of the rest of the league, and no one else seems to want a bid. Northern Iowa is still in - barely - despite a two loss week, while Missouri State was knocked out thanks to their home loss to Creighton, a 6-5 record in conference, and a head-to-head loss to UNI. The Bears have two road games this week (at Drake and at Indiana State), and they'll need both to get back on track and back in the bracket.
Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for Jan. 29:
Last Four In
Maryland, VCU, Northern Iowa, Syracuse
Last Four Out
Georgia Tech, Alabama, Missouri State, BYU
Conference Breakdown
ACC (8), Big East (6), Pac-10 (6), SEC (6), Big XII (5), Big Ten (4), MVC (3), Colonial (2), MWC (2), WAC (2)
America East - Vermont
ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, Boston College, Florida State, Maryland
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State
A-10 - Xavier
Big East - Pittsburgh, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse
Big Sky - Weber State
Big South - Winthrop
Big Ten - Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State
Big 12 - Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Texas
Big West - Long Beach State
Colonial - Hofstra, VCU
C-USA - Memphis
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Penn
Metro Atlantic - Loyola (MD)
MAC - Toledo
MCC - Oral Roberts
MEAC - Delaware State
MVC - Southern Illinois, Creighton, Northern Iowa
MWC - Air Force, UNLV
Northeast - Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay
Pac-10 - UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Arizona
Patriot - Holy Cross
SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas
Southern - Appalachian State
Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
SWAC - Jackson State
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WAC - New Mexico State, Nevada
WCC - Gonzaga
The Seeds
The 1s
North Carolina, Wisconsin, Florida, UCLA
The 2s
Ohio State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Kansas
The 3s
Duke, Memphis, Oklahoma State, Marquette
The 4s
Texas A&M, Air Force, Washington State, Butler
The 5s
Nevada, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Kentucky
The 6s
Indiana, Southern Illinois, Stanford, USC
The 7s
Arizona, Clemson, UNLV, Texas Tech
The 8s
Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Texas, Georgetown
The 9s
Georgia, Creighton, Virginia, Villanova
The 10s
Tennessee, Arkansas, Boston College, Florida State
The 11s
New Mexico State, Gonzaga, VCU, Xavier
The 12s
Maryland, Hofstra, Northern Iowa, Syracuse
The 13s
Winthrop, Toledo, Western Kentucky, Appalachian State
The 14s
Oral Roberts, Vermont, Holy Cross, Penn
The 15s
Loyola (MD), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Weber State, Long Beach State
The 16s
East Tennessee State, Austin Peay, Central Connecticut State, Delaware State (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)
The Bracket
This Week's Bracket - Jan. 29
Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com