Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - March 6

The dust has finally cleared on what was a wild four days of games, and here is how we see the bubble - and the bracket - at this point. Two teams dropped out of our field from Monday: Notre Dame (after their bubble bursting home loss to Villanova) and Florida (after their road loss to Mississippi State). They were replaced by Oklahoma State and Providence. The Cowboys were the only team on our Last Eight Out list to win a game over the last four days, and they earned a spot on the 10 line as a result. Providence lost its regular season finale at Villanova on Thursday night, but we still think that the Friars deserve a bid and that they'll be safe as long as they win one game in the Big East tournament.

The only other significant changes to the bracket were Memphis moving back up to the 2 line and Kansas falling to the 3 line, Purdue falling from a 4 to a 6 after their home loss to Northwestern, Penn State moving up to the 9 line after its thrilling win over Illinois, and South Carolina and Arizona falling down to the 12 line after home losses to Tennessee and Cal, respectively.

*Note: We will be back on Monday with our next Field of 65. In the meantime, we will provide running commentary on the weekend's games in the comments section. We will update our bracket daily starting Monday.

Bracket Breakdown
In This Week
Oklahoma State, Providence

Out This Week
Notre Dame, Florida

Last Four In
Maryland, Providence, Arizona, South Carolina

Last Four Out
Michigan, Rhode Island, Florida, New Mexico

Next Four Out
Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Northwestern, San Diego State

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Conference Breakdown
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big XII (6), Pac-10 (5), MWC (3), SEC (3), A-10 (2), WCC (2)

America East - Binghamton

ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland

Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville

A-10 - Xavier, Dayton

Big East - Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Providence

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Radford

Big Ten - Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Minnesota, Penn State, Wisconsin

Big XII - Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State

Big West - Cal State Northridge

Colonial - VCU

Conference USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Buffalo

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Creighton

MWC - Utah, BYU, UNLV

Northeast - Robert Morris

Ohio Valley - UT-Martin

Pac-10 - Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona State, Arizona

Patriot - American

SEC - LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Stephen F. Austin

Summit - North Dakota State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

SWAC - Alabama State

WAC - Utah State

WCC - St. Mary's, Gonzaga

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The Seeds
The 1s
Connecticut, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma

The 2s
Louisville, Duke, Michigan State, Memphis

The 3s
Wake Forest, Villanova, Kansas, Missouri

The 4s
Washington, Xavier, Florida State, Marquette

The 5s
Clemson, UCLA, Illinois, Gonzaga

The 6s
Purdue, Butler, California, Syracuse

The 7s
Texas, LSU, Tennessee, Arizona State

The 8s
West Virginia, Utah, BYU, Ohio State

The 9s
Minnesota, Dayton, Texas A&M, Penn State

The 10s
Boston College, Wisconsin, Creighton, Oklahoma State

The 11s
UNLV, Maryland, St. Mary's, Providence

The 12s
Arizona, South Carolina, Davidson, Utah State

The 13s
Siena, Western Kentucky, VCU, Buffalo

The 14s
Binghamton, Weber State, North Dakota State, American

The 15s
Stephen F. Austin, Cornell, UT-Martin, Robert Morris

The 16s
Cal State Northridge, Morgan State, Jacksonville, Radford (Play-In Game), Alabama State (Play-In-Game)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)













Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

Bracketology 101 On The Air

On Thursday night, we appeared on Terpcenter Radio, an ESPN Radio affiliate in Maryland, to discuss a host of bracketology-related topics with host Mike Brody. Among the topics discussed were: the ACC and Big Ten bubble picture, Maryland's at-large chances, the teams that benefited the most from Wednesday's upsets, how conference affiliation factors into a team's at-large chacnes, and the main criteria that we look at when selecting the last few tournament teams.

To listen to the full 12-minute interview, click here.

A Five Pack For Thursday

A look at the five most notable (bubble) games on Thursday's schedule:

Providence at Villanova
Who said life on the bubble was hard? Providence hasn't played a game since Sunday, but in the four days since then, the Friars have gone from the outside of the bracket looking in to pretty solidly in as the eighth and final Big East bid. The good fortune for Providence started on Monday when Notre Dame lost at home to Villanova, and it continued in a big way Tuesday night, when Georgetown choked away a double-digit second half lead to St. John's in the Garden (we still can't believe the Red Storm won that game) and Cincinnati lost on the road to lowly South Florida. Those three losses might have locked up a bid for the Friars even if they lose tonight on the road against the Wildcats. Providence will still finish 10-8 in conference with a loss here, which is a game better than Cincinnati can finish, plus the Friars beat the Bearcats twice. As long as Providence doesn't follow up a loss tonight with a first-round exit in the Big East tourney, they should be fine. If they do lose in the first round, they'll have to hope the committee sees 10 Big East wins as an automatic dance ticket, or hope that none of the other former Big East bubble teams make a miracle run to semifinals or finals of the Big East tournament.

Illinois at Penn State
Doesn't it feel like every Penn State game since Christmas has been a Six Pack game or a Game To Watch? That streak continues tonight as the Nittany Lions attempt to finally lock down an at-large bid by beating the Illini at home. Everyone remembers the first meeting between these two teams because of the final score - Penn State won 38-33 in Champaign - but lost in all that ugliness was how important the win was for the Nittany Lions' at-large chances. A win tonight would give Penn State a key season sweep of Illinois and give them six Top 50 wins on the year, which is just as many as Purdue has and one more than Ohio State and Minnesota have. If the Nittany Lions don't win tonight, they will be left with some work to do if they want to end their eight-year tourney drought. They would first have to beat Iowa on the road on Saturday and then win their first game in the Big Ten tournament next week. That game (right now) looks like it will be against Wisconsin, who beat the Nittany Lions twice during the regular season. In their most recent meeting - at Penn State on Feb. 8 - the Badgers held the Nittany Lions to just 37 percent shooting in a 54-44 loss.

Tennessee at South Carolina
We're still trying to wrap our heads around the fact that Florida and Kentucky laid ginormous eggs in must-win games last night. The SEC is looking more and more like a three-bid league right now and there's almost no chance the league gets the five bids it was projected for just last week. Two of the "safest" teams - Tennessee and South Carolina - face off tonight in Columbia. The Vols are almost a lock for a bid at this point because of their strong OOC resume and their season sweep of Florida. If they can beat South Carolina tonight, and complete a season sweep of the Gamecocks, they will move their way up the 8 line - and maybe onto the 7 line - in Friday's bracket. South Carolina might be able to join Tennessee in the "lock" category if they can pick up the win tonight at home. A victory would get the Gamecocks to 10-5 in conference, and if they beat Georgia on the road on Saturday, they would win the SEC East crown. Even if they lose tonight and then beat Georgia, South Carolina would enter the SEC tourney as the third best SEC team. One win might be enough to get them in at that point.

Dayton at Xavier
This game is all about seeding for Xavier and all about confidence for Dayton. The Flyers have lost two of their last three, but they're still in the field as an at-large thanks to their 28 RPI and their wins over Xavier, Marquette, and Temple. As long as they can split their last two games - they host Duquesne in their season finale Saturday - they will be in pretty good shape going into the A-10 tournament. The only team that could prove to be a thorn in Dayton's side is Rhode Island. URI just beat the Flyers this past weekend, and if the Rams win the A-10 automatic and go through the Flyers in the semifinals to win it, Dayton could be in a little trouble. The committee could point to their third place finish in the A-10 (URI will finish second) as a negative and leave the Flyers out. On the flip side, if Dayton were to beat Xavier tonight, they would finish off a season sweep of the Muskeeters and see their 9 seed turn into a 7. That result would also knock Xavier, who has lost three of six, down another seed line; a win tonight would bump the Musketeers (who, don't forget, have OOC wins over Memphis, Missouri, and at LSU) further up the 5 line. If Xavier wins the A-10 tourney, they'll be no worse than a 4 seed on Selection Sunday.

California at Arizona
There are a lot of warts on this year's crop of bubble teams, but not many of those warts are as gross as Arizona's 2-9 record in true road games. A record like that would normally kill a team's at-large chances, but the Wildcats have been able to offset it with some huge home wins (Kansas, Washington, UCLA, SDSU) and a neutral court win over Gonzaga. The only thing standing in Arizona's way of a bid now is an above-.500 record in the Pac-10. Given the schedule they have left (and more importantly, where those games are being played) we like their chances to finish 10-8. They host Cal tonight and then welcome Stanford, who has yet to win a conference road game, on Saturday. A pair of wins would make the Wildcats a lock heading into the Pac-10 tournament. A split means Arizona would have to win one (and maybe two) games in the Pac-10 tourney to feel completely safe. Cal, meanwhile, needs to go 1-1 this week to avoid falling into the 8/9 game. The Bears, who have lost two of their last three, checked in at a 7 seed this week after losing at home to UCLA on Saturday.

Also receiving votes: Oregon State at UCLA

A Four Pack For Wednesday

A look at the four most notable (bubble) games on Wednesday's schedule:

North Carolina at Virginia Tech and Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech
Maryland missed out on a golden opportunity to lock up an at-large last night, and in the process, they made the already hard-to-figure ACC bubble that much more complicated. The Terps fell to 7-8 in conference by losing to Wake, and they now have to win at Virginia this weekend to keep their at-large hopes alive. In the meantime, Virginia Tech and Miami get to stake their claims to a bid. The Hokies get an opportunity tonight to do what Maryland did two weeks sgo - beat Carolina at home and gain a ton of national recognition as a result. They also get another shot at a quality win Saturday at Florida State. If they manage to split (which is probably the best they can hope for), they would have road wins over Wake Forest, Clemson, Miami (and maybe FSU) on their resume, to go along with home wins over BC (and maybe Carolina). That's pretty impressive. What's not impressive is the Hokies' OOC resume, which might come back to bite them if they finish with the same 8-8 record as Maryland. The Terps have a much better OOC resume, plus they beat VT at home in the only meeting between the two teams. And let's not forget about Miami, who has been sort of lying in the weeds a little bit lately while most of the bubble talk centers around Maryland. The Hurricanes have won two in a row and they have a good chance to make it four in a row with games left at Georgia Tech tonight and at home against N.C. State on Saturday. That would get Miami to 8-8 and put them right in the mix with the Hokies and Terps. The Hurricanes have one decent OOC win (Kentucky) and in conference, they swept BC, and beat Wake, FSU, and Maryland at home (and lost to VT at home). How will this whole mess play out? Probably not as easily as the Big East played out. VT would probably be the most likely to fade away given their tough schedule (a 7-9 finish will end their at-large chances), but if they split and all three teams finish 8-8, the final ACC at-large (or at-larges?) will come down to who beats who in the conference tourney. There is a very good chance that two of these teams face each other in the ACC tourney, and the loser of that match-up would likely be done.

Wisconsin at Minnesota
Both of these teams need just one more regular season win to feel safe. For Wisconsin, that should be pretty simple since Indiana comes to town Saturday for the Badgers' season finale. Minnesota, on the other hand, doesn't have it quite as easy. The Gophers have been in the field for months, but they've struggled mightily since the beginning of February (they've lost five of seven) and they've been especially atrocious on the road, where they've lose five straight. If they can't find a way to win one of their last two games - they host Michigan on Saturday - they'll be on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday. A Minnesota loss tonight would set up what amounts to an elimination game between the Gophers and Wolverines this weekend. If Michigan were to lose that game, they would fall to 8-10 and be done. If they were to win, they would get to 9-9 and be in the field ahead of Minnesota, since they would have swept the Gophers for the season. None of these scenarios are what Minnesota fans had in mind after such a solid start, but those fans can take comfort in the fact the Gophers (a.) already beat Wisconsin once this season and (b.) have lost just twice at home all season - to Michigan State and Purdue, the two best teams in the Big Ten.

Florida at Mississippi State and Kentucky at Georgia
The SEC is looking more and more like it is going to be a four-bid league with Florida or Kentucky being that fourth team. The Gators are clinging to that fourth bid right now, but they are going to win their last two games if they are going to hang on to it. If the Wildcats want to jump back into the field, they are going to have to win their last two games as well, which would include a win in Gainesville on Saturday. That game is shaping up to be an elimination game. The Gators would have to be favored to win that game at home, which is why we kept them in the bracket this week and took Kentucky out. Profile-wise, these teams are very similar. Florida has one "very good" OOC win (Washington) and Kentucky has two "pretty good" OOC wins (West Virginia and Kansas State). Neither has done a heck of a lot in conference either, although Kentucky can hang its hat on a season sweep of Tennessee. Florida can counter with a home win over South Carolina, a team that Kentucky lost to twice. All of this parity, in a down SEC, means that 10 wins is going to be needed for a team to feel safe entering the conference tourney. There is a chance that, in the end, both Kentucky and Florida work their way into the bracket, but come this Monday, only one will be dancing.

Texas A&M at Colorado
The Big XII bubble picture got cleared up a little bit Tuesday night with Oklahoma State's win over Kansas State. The losses by Georgetown and Cincinnati also opened the door the Big XII to perhaps be a six-bid league. The leading candidate to grab the fifth Big XII bid right now is Texas A&M. The Aggies have won four straight games to quietly creep back into the bracket this week as a 10 seed. Their OOC resume, which features wins over LSU and Arizona, is head and shoulders better than the OOC resume of any other Big XII bubble team, and in conference, the Aggies have a great chance to finish 9-7, which would make them a lock. They finish up their regular season with two games this week, beginning with what should be an easy road game at Colorado tonight. Their bigger test comes Saturday at home against Missouri. If A&M were to lose that game and finish 8-8, their fate would depend on how Oklahoma State fares this weekend, as well as how the Aggies and Cowboys do in the Big XII tourney. A&M's computers numbers are good (35 RPI, 38 SOS) but not great, and their "good win" total is good but not great. They have four Top 50 wins, but only one of those came away from home.

Also receiving votes: Marquette at Pittsburgh, Oklahoma at Missouri, Boston College at North Carolina State, Northwestern at Purdue, Vanderbilt at LSU, Memphis at Houston, BYU at Wyoming, Colorado State at San Diego State