A One Pack For Championship Tuesday

A look at the biggest game on Tuesday night's schedule:

Cleveland State at Butler
As the bubble holds its breath, Butler and Cleveland State square off tonight in the Horizon final. The Bulldogs, regardless of the result, are a lock for an at-large, which means Cleveland State has the opportunity to be the first true bid-stealer of the week. The Vikings, if you remember, made some early-season headlines when Cedric Jackson hit a half-court shot to beat Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. They've won 11 of their last 13 coming into this game and advanced to the final after upsetting second-seeded Wisconsin-Green Bay in the semis. Butler swept the season series between these two teams, but both games went right down to the wire. The Bulldogs won at Cleveland State on a three-pointer at the buzzer back on Dec. 4, and then let a 10-point second half lead slip away before hanging on to beat the Vikings on a late lay-up in the rematch on Feb. 28. That game, like this one, took place in Hinkle Fieldhouse, where the Bulldogs have lost just once this season and just twice in the last two years. That home court advantage should be enough to help Butler win its second straight Horizon tourney title. If it's not, the Vikings will be dancing and St. Mary's will be on the outside looking in on Wednesday. If Butler wins, they should be right around a 6 seed on Selection Sunday; a loss would drop them into the 8-9 range.

Also receiving votes: Oakland vs. North Dakota State (Summit championship), South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt championship)

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - March 9

The final weekend of the regular season and the results of some of the early conference tournaments led to a ton of changes to our bracket in a span of just 72 hours. The most notable changes big conference-wise involved Maryland and Minnesota. The Terps, who were in great shape to secure an at-large heading into this week, inexplicably lost their season finale at Virginia on Saturday to finish 7-9 in conference. They'll need to beat N.C. State in their first round ACC tournament game and then upset Wake Forest in the quarters to get back in the mix for a bid. The Gophers, meanwhile, lost at home to Michigan and were essentially replaced by the Wolverines in the bracket. We are holding firm in our season-long belief that the Big Ten will not get eight bids, and since Michigan is deserving of a bid now after finishing 9-9 in conference, one Big Ten team had to go. We don't like Minnesota's chances against Northwestern in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, while we are very confident Michigan will get past Iowa in their first round game and secure a bid.

The biggest decision we had to make when putting together this bracket was what to do with Creighton. The Bluejays fell to Illinois State in the MVC semis, and in the process, became the latest in a long line of mid-major bubble teams that is going to have to wait around and pray that the selection committee rewards the "little guy." We, for one, think that this "little guy" deserves to be rewarded. For starters, the Bluejays have wins over Dayton and New Mexico on their resume (which Illinois State didn't have last year as a Valley at-large candidate), they have a top-40 RPI, and they finished tied for first place in conference. They were also on an 11-game winning streak heading into the Valley tournament, a streak that included a Bracketbuster win over George Mason. We know that things are going to have to break right in the MWC, ACC, and SEC tournaments for all of these arguments to matter come Selection Sunday, but if there's not too much craziness in those tournaments, we think Creighton should get a shot. We also know that we've been burned by our support of mid-major at-larges in the past (the Redbirds last year, Drexel in 2007, Hofstra in 2006), and we know that every season is different, but Creighton's overall resume is better than all of those teams, and as of right now, they deserve an at-large.

This weekend's results in the MWC also caused a shake-up in the bracket. UNLV's loss to SDSU dropped the Rebels to 9-7 in conference, and knocked them out of the bracket in favor of New Mexico. UNLV and SDSU face off again this Thursday in the MWC quaterfinals in what is an elimination game. New Mexico, meanwhile, gets Wyoming in their first game, and we like them to win that game and then get past Utah (who they just beat a week ago) to reach the final. An appearance in the final is all the Lobos need to get a bid. The UNLV/SDSU winner gets BYU in the semis, and if the Rebels or Aztecs were to upset the Cougars get to the final and beat New Mexico, there is a chance the Mountain West could be a 4-bid league. That would obviously be ideal. The most likely scenario, though, is that the league ends up with three teams in the tourney (Utah, BYU, and either NM, SDSU, or UNLV).

The final, and maybe the most surprising, change to the bracket came as a reult of Davidson's loss to Charleston in the Southern semis. Unlike Creighton, who has a legit at-large resume as a mid-major, Davidson's tournament hopes are now all but over. The Wildcats have just one win over the Top 100 (West Virginia), they got crushed in their Bracketbuster game by Butler (with Stephen Curry in the lineup), and they couldn't even get to the championship game of the 20th-ranked conference in the country. They are going to need a miracle to make it at this point, and if they do, it's going to entirely based on the star power of Curry and their tourney success from last year, which is a factor the committee says it doesn't consider.

Bracket Breakdown
In This Bracket
Michigan, New Mexico, Northern Iowa, Charleston, Morehead State, East Tennessee State

Out This Bracket
Minnesota, UNLV, Maryland, Davidson, UT-Martin, Jacksonville

Last Four In
Providence, South Carolina, Creighton, New Mexico

Last Four Out
Minnesota, Florida, San Diego State, Maryland

Next Four Out
Auburn, Rhode Island, Miami (FL), Davidson/UNLV

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Conference Breakdown
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big XII (6), Pac-10 (5), MWC (3), SEC (3), A-10 (2), MVC (2), WCC (2)

America East - Binghamton

ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State

A-10 - Xavier, Dayton

Big East - Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse, Marquette, West Virginia, Providence

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Radford

Big Ten - Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State

Big XII - Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State

Big West - Cal State Northridge

Colonial - VCU

Conference USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Buffalo

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Northern Iowa, Creighton

MWC - Utah, BYU, New Mexico

Northeast - Robert Morris

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California, Arizona

Patriot - American

SEC - LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina

Southern - Charleston

Southland - Stephen F. Austin

Summit - North Dakota State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

SWAC - Alabama State

WAC - Utah State

WCC - St. Mary's, Gonzaga

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The Seeds
The 1s
Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Connecticut, Oklahoma

The 2s
Louisville, Michigan State, Duke, Memphis

The 3s
Wake Forest, Villanova, Kansas, Washington

The 4s
Florida State, Missouri, Xavier, UCLA

The 5s
Syracuse, Illinois, Clemson, Gonzaga

The 6s
Marquette, Butler, Arizona State, Purdue

The 7s
California, Utah, Texas, LSU

The 8s
BYU, Tennessee, West Virginia, Ohio State

The 9s
Texas A&M, Dayton, Boston College, Wisconsin

The 10s
Michigan, Oklahoma State, Penn State, St. Mary's

The 11s
Arizona, Providence, South Carolina, Creighton

The 12s
New Mexico, Utah State, Siena, Northern Iowa

The 13s
Western Kentucky, VCU, Buffalo, Charleston

The 14s
Binghamton, Weber State, North Dakota State, American

The 15s
Stephen F. Austin, Cornell, East Tennessee State, Robert Morris

The 16s
Morgan State, Cal State Northridge, Morehead State, Radford (Play-In Game), Alabama State (Play-In-Game)

The Bracket
(Bracket coming soon...)

Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

A Three Pack For Championship Monday

A look at the three biggest conference tournament finals on Monday's schedule:

George Mason vs. VCU
The previous two Colonial conference tourney champs will face off in what should be a competitive final. These two only played once during the regular season, with the Rams winning on their home floor. For the most part, bubble team fans really don't have a rooting interest in this one since neither team has any at-large possibility. However, Creighton and Rhode Island fans actually do have a team to cheer for. URI's best win (RPI-wise) came against VCU in a home game way back in November, while Creighton picked up a BracketBuster home win against George Mason a few weeks ago. Creighton needs all the help it can get this week and every win over a tourney team will put them that much closer to a bid (that's why Bluejay fans should probably actually cheer for Dayton and New Mexico as well). Rhode Island will still need to do plenty of damage in the A-10 tourney, but a trip to the conference final would put them in contention for an at-large.

Niagara at Siena
All season these two were the cream of the MAAC crop, and they will settle things in the final. They split during the regular season, each winning at home, but Niagara won by 15 just 10 days ago. This one is back on Siena's home court, so you have to like their chances to return to the NCAA tourney. Despite their 24 RPI, the Saints really have no at-large profile. They have no wins over teams currently in the top 50 RPI and lost two regular season games in the 13th rated conference in the country. A loss for them here would leave them in about the same boat as Davidson, and surely behind Creighton.

Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's
This one is easily the biggest game of the night, and could end up being one of the biggest bubble games of the week. Patty Mills made his triumphant return last night against Portland, and helped the Gaels advance to the final. The star guard was a little rusty (he was 3-of-12 from the floor), but he still managed to lead St. Mary's to a 10-point win. Now the real test comes against Gonzaga, who went unbeaten in conference. We've been anticipating this matchup for a week now, and with Mills back, we think the Gaels will have enough firepower to take down Gonzaga for the first time away from Moraga since 1997. The Gaels do have some at-large potential should they fall again to the Bulldogs. They have neutral court wins over Providence and SDSU, and a BracketBuster win over Utah State that came without Mills. It would really come down to how much of a break the committee gives them for their play when Mills was out. They suffered blowout road losses to Portland and Santa Clara during that time. If they do lose, they will have another chance to show the committee that they are a tourney team in a late week matchup with Eastern Washington.

Running Weekend Commentary

Friday and Saturday's Games
*Cornell was the first team to lock up an automatic bid, for the second year in a row, with its win over Penn on Friday night.

*As we head in to the final weekend of the regular season, here are the differences between our bracket and the brackets of other bracketologists:

Joe Lunardi (ESPN.com)
He has: Michigan, New Mexico, Northern Iowa
We have: Arizona, Providence, St. Mary's

Jerry Palm (CollegeRPI.com)
He has: Michigan, Rhode Island, Northern Iowa
We have: Providence, St. Mary's, South Carolina

*R.I.P. Cincinnati...and the Big East getting 9 bids.

*Michigan picked a pretty good time to win a road game. The Wolverines will be in Monday's field, but they'll still need to win a Big Ten tourney game to be safe. Minnesota's fate for Monday will be determined by how the rest of the bubble fares today and tomorrow. Even if they hang on as the eighth Big Ten team, they'll need one (and maybe two) Big Ten wins to like their chances on Selection Sunday. Keep in mind that Minnesota did sweep Wisconsin this season.

*Rakim Sanders just saved BC's season. The Eagles probably would have been out on Monday had Sanders' fadeaway jumper not fallen.

*Albany holds on to upset Vermont. Tony Kornheiser's Binghamton Bearcats have an easier NCAA tourney path now.

*POP! goes Kentucky. The Wildcats are going to have to get to the SEC final, and maybe win it, to get a bid. Their first round game will be against Alabama, followed by LSU and (barring an upset) South Carolina.

*How does Rhode Island reward us for showing them a little Last Four Out love? They lose at home to UMass. The Rams may have to win the A-10 tourney now to get a bid.

*South Carolina avoided the upset bug, and will stay in the field Monday as a result.

*Ginormous win for Texas A&M. They're solidly in right now.

*Interesting move by St. Mary's to add a game against Eastern Washington to the schedule for later this week after the WCC tourney.

*What an absolute mess the Big Ten is. Penn State was unable to lock down its bid at Iowa. Here is what we are left with: Wisconsin swept Penn State and Michigan, Michigan swept Minnesota, Minnesota swept Wisconsin, Ohio State swept Michigan, and Penn State swept Illinois and won at Michigan State. If Northwestern can win at Ohio State today then things will get even messier. It is going to take the conference tourney to sort this all out.

*Maryland blew it at Virginia and opened up a huge door for Virginia Tech if they can win at FSU. All of our ACC posters must really love the fact that the Big Ten is looking more and more like an 8 bid league (we still won't say it is an 8 bid league yet), while the ACC is looking like a 6 bid league.

*New Mexico picked up a huge road win at Wyoming. A trip the the MWC final would put them in good position for an at-large. There are also now some plausible scenarios where the MWC gets 4 bids.

*Creighton down big early...Creighton down big at the half...and Creighton losses big in the end. The Bluejays will be talked about all week and they are definitely in the mix for an at-large bid. They have wins over fellow bubble boys Dayton and New Mexico, and they have an RPI that will likely be in the low 40s. The big problem we think the committee may have with them is that they were only able to share the regular season title with Northern Iowa and that they were unable to reach the conference final. It will be a long week for them (like it was for Illinois State last year) and they will need to have things go their way throughout the week to make it in the end.

*Big win for Auburn today. They are officially on our bubble now having won 8 of 9 and finishing with 10 wins in the SEC. If Florida gets by Arkansas they will face off with the Tigers in the quarters in what will be an elimination game with the winner being right in the mix.

*Radford, East Tennessee State, and Morehead State (wow, what a game) - welcome to the Big Dance.

*We'll be back later tonight...keeping an eye on Stanford at Arizona, Wright State at Butler, and UNLV at SDSU.

*...And we're back. Butler was able to squeeze past Wright State and into the Horizon final, where they will face potential bid-stealer Cleveland State on Tuesday night. The Bulldogs will be in the field win-or-lose come Wednesday. Arizona also held serve at home against Stanford to finish 9-9 in the Pac-10. That should be good enough for a bid, but the Wildcats might want to beat ASU in the first round of the Pac-10 tournament to feel really good about their chances.

*UNLV has the best OOC resume of any MWC team, but they finished with seven conference losses and are on the outside looking in right now after losing at SDSU. It was the second win of the season for the Aztecs over the Rebels, who ended up with the 5 seed in the MWC tourney as a result. SDSU earned the 4 seed, which means that these two will play again on Thursday in an elimination game. The loser of that game will have no at-large hopes, while the winner will need to beat BYU in the semis to like its at-large chances on Selection Sunday. Both of these teams will enter the conference tourney behind New Mexico in the MWC pecking order. The Lobos split with every good MWC team during the regular season, but they finished a game ahead of SDSU in conference and three games ahead of UNLV. They've also won eight of nine overall. The Lobos' first round match-up against Wyoming (again) in the MWC tourney is very winnable. If they beat the Cowboys, and then upset Utah to get to the final, they'll be in great shape for an at-large.

Sunday's Games
*Who would have thought a week or so ago that all three ACC bubble teams (Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Miami) would finish 7-9? The "luckiest" of these three teams is Maryland, who ended up getting the 7 seed in the ACC tourney. They'll face N.C. State in the opening round. Miami and VT will square off in the 8/9 game. The loser of that is obviously done, while the winner is going to need to upset Carolina to get an at-large. The Terps will also need two wins to get serious at-large consideration.

*Congrats to Northern Iowa for winning the Valley (and for making our lives a little harder over the next week). Creighton is going to be one of the most-discussed and most debated bubble teams all week long. We'll give our updated take on their at-large chances when we release our Monday bracket.

*Ohio State survived Northwestern's upset bid and pulled out a five-point win in Columbus. The loss ends Northwestern's at-large hopes, but we wouldn't be surprised if the still-hot Wildcats make a little noise in the Big Ten tourney.

*Wow...down goes Davidson - to Charleston in the Southern semis. Unlike Creighton, who has a legit at-large resume as a mid-major, Davidson's tournament hopes are all but over. The Wildcats have just one win over the Top 100 (West Virginia), they get crushed in their Bracketbuster game by Butler (with Stephen Curry in the lineup), and they couldn't even get to the championship game of the 20th-ranked conference in the country. Davidson may be clinging to a spot in the Next Four Out list in our bracket tomorrow, but they will need a miracle (or a lot of Steph Curry love from the committee) at this point to get a bid.