A Four Pack For Thursday

A look at the four most notable games on Thursday's schedule:

Minnesota at Illinois
Minnesota hasn't fallen all the way to bubble status just yet, but they're getting pretty darn close. The Gophers are just 4-6 in their last 10 games (two of those win have come against Indiana) and they've have slipped to 8-7 in the Big Ten and down to the 9 line in our latest bracket. The biggest reason behind their slide has been their awful play on the road. They've lost their last four conference road games (at Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan) and for the season they have just one road win against a Big Ten team that is currently in the field (Wisconsin). That's not a very encouraging trend for Gopher fans, whose team will face another tough road test tonight in Champaign. Before last week's hideous showing against Penn State, the Illini had won six straight conference home games - over the likes of Purdue, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. They enter this game fresh off a nice road win over the Buckeyes on Sunday, and a victory here would keep their slim chance at winning a Big Ten title alive. Illinois sits a game and half back of Michigan State with three games to play. They host the Spartans this weekend before finishing up at Penn State next Thursday. Minnesota would drop to at least a 10 seed with a loss here and will slip closer to the bubble, but we are not of the opinion that they will fall apart and miss the tourney altogether. They have played well at home and they finish with home games against Wisconsin and Michigan; a 1-1 split and one Big Ten tourney win should be enough to get the Gophers a bid.

Purdue at Michigan
We still have no clue why John Beilein benched Manny Harris in overtime against Iowa on Sunday, but we do know this: Michigan's loss to the Hawkeyes may prove crippling to their already slim at-large hopes. The Wolverines are probably going to have to win out to get a bid, and that will be next to impossible given their remaining schedule and their season-long road woes. They host red-hot Purdue, winners of four in a row and 10 of their last 12, tonight and then hit the road for games at Wisconsin and at Minnesota to finish up. The Wolverines have just two true road wins this season, and those wins came at Northwestern and at Indiana. We know it's probably foolish to count Michigan out considering how up-and-down they have been all year, but we find it hard to believe that they are going to play well enough down the stretch to snag one of the final at-large spots. This game is also extremely important to the Boilermakers, who are in a three-way battle for the Big Ten regular season crown. A win would keep them a game behind Michigan State, who they already beat once, with three to play. The two teams face off in East Lansing next Sunday in the regular season finale for both.

West Virginia at Cincinnati
The Bearcats haven't played a game yet this week, but their at-large hopes have already taken a serious hit. Providence's upset of top-ranked Pitt vaulted the the Friars past Cincinnati in the Big East pecking order, and made it imperative that the Bearcats counter with a win here tonight against West Virginia. Cincinnati should be able to win its last two games (at South Florida, home vs. Seton Hall), and will need to win either this game or Sunday's game at Syracuse to finish 10-8 in conference. From there, two Big East will be need for the Bearcats to be in the discussion on Selection Sunday. Cincinnati will have to shoot the ball a lot better - and do a better job on the offensive glass - than they did against Louisville over the weekend if they are going to upset a West Virginia team that has been on fire defensively. The Mountaineers have won three straight games, holding high-scoring Villanova to 72 points, Notre Dame to just 68, and Rutgers to 56. Offensively, they've been riding the hot shooting of Da'Sean Butler, who has averaged over 24 points per game over his last three. A win tonight would give West Virginia a great chance of finishing 11-7 in conference, which would likely be good for a 6 seed in our bracket heading into the Big East tourney.

Arizona State at Washington
This one is a battle for the Pac-10 title. Both teams have a good chance to win out after this game, especially Washington, which makes the result here that much more important. The Sun Devils were able to hold on against Arizona over the weekend to set up this showdown. (By the way, how stupid are ASU students? First they rush the court after beating UCLA, which was a little questionable, then they rush against unranked Arizona?) The last time the Sun Devils lost was when the Huskies visited Tempe. Their five game winning streak has helped them climb to a 4 seed. They don't have much of an OOC resume, but if they are able to win out until Selection Sunday, they will climb to a 3 seed. A win for the Huskies would clearly make them the top team in the Pac-10. Like most Pac-10 teams, their OOC resume features no wins over current tourney teams, so getting above the 4 line may be difficult.

Also receiving votes: Miami at Virginia, North Carolina State at Wake Forest, UCLA at Stanford, Arizona at Washington State, USC at California, Xavier at St. Joseph's, LaSalle at Temple, Memphis at UAB, Hawaii at Utah State, St. Mary's at Pepperdine, Gonzaga at Santa Clara

A Six Pack For Wednesday

A look at the six most notable games on Wednesday's schedule:

Connecticut at Marquette
After Pitt's loss last night, there is four-way tie in the loss column atop the Big East standings. Marquette controls its own destiny with games remaining against all the teams they are tied with. This is the only home meeting they have out of the three, so it is probably their best chance for a win. They are currently on the 3 line but have a great chance to climb up with their schedule. They don't have much on their OOC resume so they would have to win out to climb up to the 1 line. The Huskies are the only team left in the country with an undefeated road record, but they haven't fared too well since they lost starting guard Jerome Dyson for the year. His replacement, Craig Austrie, has averaged around six points a game and has only shot 28%, while A. J. Price has only averaged 12 a game and shot 32%. They will need much better guard play if they are going to win the Big East title that they expected to win this year. The loser in this one can probably forget about any chance of winning the Big East title outright.

Duke at Maryland
Terp fans are probably still celebrating the win over UNC and now they get their bitter rival Duke coming in. If the Terps can manage to pull off another upset they would be in great shape for a bid. It would get them to 7-6 in conference, and if they can finish with 9 wins they would be safe. They're going to need another big game out of Greivis Vasquez tonight if they want to get win No. 7. In their last three wins, Vasquez he has averaged almost 24 a game while hitting nearly 50% of his 3's. We expect plenty of "F___ Duke" chants out of the classy Maryland student section. We've mentioned plenty of times how difficult of a schedule Maryland and Virginia Tech have left, but Duke is in the same boat. They have two more road games left with Virginia Tech and UNC and will take on Florida State at home. The Blue Devils are still in the mix for a 1 seed but they will need to win out to get there.

Virginia Tech at Clemson
No bubble team did more damage to their at-large chances than Virginia Tech did last week. The Hokies lost at Virginia and at home to Florida State to fall from an 11 seed to off the Last Eight Out list altogether. They got passed in the ACC pecking order by Maryland and Miami, and with the brutal stretch they have left, they are going to need a minor miracle to get a bid. Their first order of business is to find a way to win at Clemson tonight. They then have the "luxury" of playing Duke and Carolina at home before finishing up with a tough roadie at FSU. Clemson beat the Hokies by four in Blacksburg the first time these two teams played, and a season sweep would just solidify the Tigers' spot on the 2 line. If Clemson can go 2-2 over their last four games (VT, at FSU, Virginia, at Wake), they should be no worse than a 3 seed on Selection Sunday. Unlike previous Clemson teams, who have played a cupcake OOC schedule, this year's team has road wins at Illinois, Miami, and South Carolina and a neutral court win over Temple, all of which the committee will like when they are placing the Tigers in their bracket.

Kentucky at South Carolina
Both of these teams enter the final two weeks of the season with the same goal - go 2-2 in their over their last four games to finish 10-6, win a game in the conference tourney, and (likely) get a bid. At 8-4, the Wildcats and Gamecocks are tied for first place in the SEC East, a half game ahead of Florida. A closer look at their resumes, though, shows that their match-up tonight means a lot more to South Carolina than it does to Kentucky. The Gamecocks have a head-to-head win over Kentucky and a better RPI (44 vs. 62), but overall, they have only one Top 50 win (a home win over the Gators) and no real quality OOC wins (their best win was at Baylor). A loss here means South Carolina would need to win two of its final three games, which are at Vandy, home against Tennessee, and at Georgia, to feel safe. A South Carolina win tonight would knock Kentucky (for the moment) back to a double-digit seed, but wouldn't put them in danger of falling out of the field. Their season sweep of Tennessee, which they completed last week, really helps their at-large chances, as does their five Top 50 wins, their OOC win over West Virginia, and their home win over Florida. After this game, Kentucky hosts LSU on Saturday, and then finishes up next week with games against Georgia at home and against the Gators in Gainesville.

Kansas State at Missouri
In most years, a team with Kansas State's resume wouldn't be in the field right now. But this year, with no one seeming to want the last few at-large spots, the Wildcats are hanging on to one of the final bids - barely. Kansas State's computer numbers aren't pretty - their RPI is 75 and their non-conference SOS is 313 - but they've managed to pick up some big wins in conference to keep themselves in the mix (at Texas, Missouri, at Texas A&M). Their win over Texas looks even nicer now that the Longhorns beat Oklahoma, and their road win at A&M is huge considering the Aggies, after their miracle win at Nebraska, are still very much alive in the Big XII bubble picture. If the Wildcats were to win this game and complete a season sweep of the Tigers, they'd be in great shape to finish 10-6 and get a bid given the schedule they have left (this game, Nebraska, at Oklahoma State, Colorado). A loss here would make their game against the Cowboys a must-win if they want to stay in the at-large discussion. For Missouri, this game is must if they have any hopes at winning the Big XII title. The Tigers, who have won six in a row, currently sit a game a half behind Kansas and a half game behind Oklahoma in the standings. They play the Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse on Sunday and then host the Sooners (and we assume Blake Griffin) next Wednesday.

UNLV at Utah
The Rebels have hung onto an at-large bid even with their MWC struggles because of their strong OOC wins. They are going to have to win a tough road game down the stretch to keep holding on. They got a huge win against BYU over the weekend and now will need to win this one or their last game at SDSU to really solidify their spot in the bracket going into the MWC tourney. The Rebels are tied for 4th in conference right now, which isn't good, and they will need to finish 3rd or better to really like their chances. The Utes, at this point, are more concerned with how high of a seed they can earn. They are two games up in the loss column, and barring a late season collapse, they will win the regular season title. They have a tough schedule left, but if they can win out they will see their seed skyrocket to no lower than a 6.

Also receiving votes: Dayton at Rhode Island, Mississippi State at Tennessee, Rutgers at Notre Dame

A Five Pack For Tuesday

A look at the five most notable games on Tuesday's schedule:

Penn State at Ohio State
The roller coaster ride otherwise known at the Penn State basketball season continues. After a two-week hiatus from the bracket, the Nittany Lions jumped back into the field this week after their ugly and stunning road win at Illinois. It was Penn State's second straight win over a tourney-caliber team and it padded a Big Ten resume that now includes wins over the league's top three teams (with two of those wins coming on the road). Even with that impressive conference resume, though, Penn State's bid is still not secure. The Nittany Lions' RPI is a sub-par 62, their non-conference SOS is an atrocious 321, and their best OOC win came against Mount St. Mary's. All of those numbers mean that for Penn State to get a bid, they still might need to win three of their last four games - the toughest of which comes tonight at Ohio State. A win here would almost guarantee Penn State 11 wins in conference, which would make them a lock for a bid. A loss here would put a ton of pressure on the Nittany Lions to beat Illinois on March 5. For Ohio State, this game is the start of a huge week. The Buckeyes have lost three straight, including a head-scratcher at Northwestern on Wednesday, and have fallen to the bottom of the 8 line in our latest bracket. With six Top 50 wins on their resume already, Ohio State is probably safe barring a total collapse down the stretch, but losses here and to Purdue this weekend would mean they could finish no better than 9-9 in conference.

Pittsburgh at Providence
A week ago, Providence was the most attractive Big East bubble team and was an 11 seed in our Field Of 65. Now, after their awful performance at home against Notre Dame, their at-large hopes are on life support. Their 19-point loss to the Irish on Saturday dropped them to 8-7 in conference and behind ND and Cincinnati in the Big East pecking order. To have any chance at a bid, the Friars are going to have to win out, which will be next to impossible given the schedule they have left. Sandwiched around a game at Rutgers is this game, against the new No. 1 team in the country, and a road game at red-hot Villanova. Tonight they face a Pitt team that, if it can win this game, has a good chance of winning out and maybe winning the Big East title. The Panthers host Marquette and UConn next week, and if they win those games and if Louisville (who has the tie-breaker over them) loses once down the stretch, Pitt would get the #1 seed in the Big East tourney and pretty much lock up a spot on the 1 line.

Florida at LSU
Neither of these teams are in danger of falling out of the bracket, but this game is still very important in terms of seeding. LSU, which has now won eight in a row, beat Arkansas and Auburn last week to move up to the 7 line in our latest field. They've feasted on the pathetic SEC West all season en route to their 11-1 SEC record. In any other year, that conference mark would easily be worthy of a much higher seed, but in LSU's case, a non-existent OOC resume and the overall medocrity of the league has really hurt their seeding. Fortunately for the Tigers, they get a couple of chances this week to prove themselves. They host Florida tonight and then play at Kentucky on Saturday, and if they win both games, they will have beaten all four of the other tourney-worthy SEC teams - and they'd likely move up to the 5 line as a result. A win by the Gators here would be huge for their resume as well. They have been floating around the 7-10 lines for almost two months now and they are in desperate need of a marquee road win. Florida has lost its last three SEC roadies (to Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia), and for the season, they have just two true road wins (Vanderbilt and Auburn). Like LSU, the Gators have plenty of opportunities to move up (or down) the bracket over the next two weeks. They host Tennessee on Sunday, and then finish up their regular season next week with a road game at Mississippi State and a home game against Kentucky.

Florida State at Boston College
Do FSU fans know what to do with themselves right now? For the first time in what seems like a decade, the 'Noles are far from the bubble - in a good way - and have their sights on a 4 or maybe even a 3 seed if they can navigate through their tough remaining schedule. FSU won two more big games last week (Miami at home and Virginia Tech on the road) to move to 8-4 in the ACC, and in the process they added to one of the more underrated resumes in the country. Tonight they face a Boston College team that is in a little trouble after suffering a disappointing loss at Miami on Saturday. The loss was BC's third in its last four games and it dropped them down to a 9 seed this week. Unlike FSU, though, BC's remaining schedule after this game is pretty easy, and barring a total collapse, that should help them secure a spot in the field. The Eagles play at N.C. State and at home against Georgia Tech next week to close out their regular season, and if they win out (including tonight) they'll likely get back up to the 7 line. If BC were to lose this game and then lose to the Wolfpack, they would start to be evaluated against Maryland and Miami on the ACC bubble. The Eagles, remember, got swept by the Hurricanes this season, but won at Maryland in the only meeting between the two teams.

BYU at San Diego State
We are in the minority amongst bracketologists in having both of these teams currently out of the field (especially BYU), but if you look at what each team has remaining it is very difficult to come up with a scenario where both teams get an at-large. The Aztecs need to win their last four games (BYU, at TCU, CSU, and UNLV). This is definitely doable, but it got a lot harder when starting forward Billy White went down with a knee injury late weekend; he will be out for this one. If the Aztecs do manage to win out, then they will finish no worse than second place and a trip to the MWC finals would probably be enough for an at-large bid. If SDSU is able to have a 2-0 week they will likely find themselves back in the bracket next week. This is the Cougars' last chance of the season to pick up a good road win in conference. We really don't understand why so many people have the Cougars so safely in the field. All they really have OOC is a win over Utah State, and they have now been swept by UNLV in league play. This game and their next two (at home against Utah and at Wyoming) will really determine their fate. Winning tonight at SDSU would be a great start and would give them the season sweep over the Aztecs. They just need to hope that UNLV losses a couple so that they can finish a few games ahead of the Rebels and be considered second in the MWC pecking order.

Also receiving votes: Syracuse at St. John's, Texas A&M at Nebraska

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Feb. 23

As the season goes on and more games are played, the bracket tends to stabilize, which is exactly what we have seen in the past two weeks. Teams on the top 4-5 seed lines have made their case and and likely won't move more than a seed line up or down week to week. This is especially true of the 1 seeds, since three out of four lost in the last week but they all held on to their 1 seeds. Most of the changes from here on out will be teams going from the last four out line to last four in.

Just a couple of weeks ago, we could never have imagined both Notre Dame and Wisconsin playing their way back into the bracket, but that is exactly what has happened. The Irish picked up a huge road win over the weekend against Providence and ended up taking the Friars' bid. We are expecting the Irish to be able to win out at home, which would include a win over Villanova, which would get them to 9-9 and put them in the best shape of all the Big East bubble teams. Penn State also made its way back into the bracket after their ugly win at Illinois. The Nittany Lions have now beaten the top three teams in the Big Ten, and seven bids out of the Big Ten seems possible. Things still need to break right for the league, though, since four of the seven bids are an 8 seed or worse, and each of these teams could easily play their way out.

We once again downgraded the MWC to two teams. The top teams in the league beat up on each other a bit in the past week and this trend will likely continue given each team's upcoming schedule. At this point we think that it is more likely that the MWC will end up with two bids than three (four bids is insane.) New Mexico has really hurt the conference's chances of getting three bids. They have beaten all three bubble teams at the Pit, but have no chance at an at-large because of their bad losses OOC. The best chance for the conference to get three bids is to have Utah slip up and to have BYU or SDSU go on a run and share the conference title with the Utes. That would put the two teams who split the regular season crown in good shape, and UNLV should be able to at least get to the tourney championship game on their home court and earn a bid as well.

Bracket Breakdown
In This Week
Maryland, Penn State, Notre Dame, Radford, Belmont, Long Beach State, UT-Martin

Out This Week
Providence, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, VMI, Jacksonville, Cal State Northridge, Morehead State

Last Four In
Maryland, Penn State, Kansas State, Notre Dame

Last Four Out
San Diego State, Cincinnati, BYU, Miami (FL)

Next Four Out
Texas A&M, St. Mary's, Providence, UAB

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Conference Breakdown
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big XII (5), Pac-10 (5), SEC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (2)

America East - Binghamton

ACC - North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Temple, Xavier, Dayton

Big East - Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Notre Dame

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Radford

Big Ten - Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State

Big XII - Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Texas, Kansas State

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - VCU

Conference USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Buffalo

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Creighton

MWC - Utah, UNLV

Northeast - Robert Morris

Ohio Valley - UT-Martin

Pac-10 - Arizona State, Washington, UCLA, California, Arizona

Patriot - American

SEC - LSU, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Stephen F. Austin

Summit - North Dakota State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

SWAC - Alabama State

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga

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The Seeds
The 1s
Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Connecticut, North Carolina

The 2s
Louisville, Clemson, Michigan State, Duke

The 3s
Memphis, Wake Forest, Marquette, Missouri

The 4s
Villanova, Kansas, Arizona State, Purdue

The 5s
Illinois, Florida State, Washington, Gonzaga

The 6s
Xavier, UCLA, Butler, California

The 7s
LSU, Texas, West Virginia, Syracuse

The 8s
Utah, Dayton, Florida, Ohio State

The 9s
Boston College, Arizona, Minnesota, Kentucky

The 10s
Wisconsin, Tennessee, South Carolina, UNLV

The 11s
Utah State, Maryland, Temple, Penn State

The 12s
Kansas State, Siena, Creighton, Notre Dame

The 13s
Davidson, Western Kentucky, VCU, Buffalo

The 14s
Binghamton, Weber State, North Dakota State, American

The 15s
Stephen F. Austin, Cornell, Radford, Belmont

The 16s
Long Beach State, Morgan State, UT-Martin, Robert Morris (Play-In Game), Alabama State (Play-In-Game)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)













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