A Four Pack For Thursday

A look at the four most notable games on Thursday's schedule:

Minnesota at Michigan
Penn State's win over Illinois was punch in the stomach for Michigan, who was probably just starting to feel good about its at-large chances again. Now, even after their win over Northwestern last week, the Wolverines find themselves eighth in the Big Ten pecking order. There's no way the Big Ten is getting eight bids, and we aren't even confident that they end up with seven come Selection Sunday. To have any chance at an at-large, Michigan needs to get on major roll, and that roll needs to start tonight at home against the struggling Gophers. Minnesota has lost three of its last four (all on the road) and they've seen their seed fall from a 5 all the way down to an 8 as a result. The Gophers only have one quality road win in conference (at Wisconsin in OT back when the Badgers were playing awful), and overall they've lost four of their last five conference road games. That's music to Michigan's ears as they begin a tough five-game stretch to close out their season. They have three road games left, including a return date against these Gophers, and they also have to host a Purdue team that is playing some of its best ball of the season. If Michigan doesn't do better than 3-2 down the stretch, they are going to have to do some real damage in the Big Ten tournament, and hope for some other teams to start losing, to earn a bid.

Washington at UCLA
Just when we thought the Bruins were finally starting to live up to their preseason expectations, they went out and dropped two in Arizona, including a game against the Wildcats that they were never really in. They return home this week to take on the Washington schools, and tonight they need to beat the Huskies to avoid a season sweep. A win for the Bruins would keep them in the tight Pac-10 race, where five teams are currently within two games of first place. If Washington can pull off the road upset here, they would be in great shape to win the Pac-10 title. The biggest advantage the Huskies have over the other Pac-10 contenders is that this week's trip down to SoCal is their last road trip of the season. They do still have to play the Arizona schools at home, so by no means do they have an easy schedule left, but you would have to like their chances in those games since they have only dropped one game at home all season. If they go 1-1 this week against UCLA and USC, they'd have to be considered the clear favorite to win the Pac-10.

Washington State at USC
The Trojans dropped out of our bracket this week after losing three straight road contests. They are currently 6th in the Pac-10 pecking order, which is a bad place to be considering that it's the 5th rated conference and will likely not see more than half of its teams earn bids. This matchup against the middling Cougars is obviously a must-win to keep any tourney hopes alive. The Trojans did absolutely nothing OOC so a strong finish is required to get them back into the discussion. A 5-1 finish is within reason since they have four games left at home, where they have only lost once all season. If they can manage to win five of their last six, then they will be an interesting case on Selection Sunday. That scenario would give them an 11-7 conference record, which in most years would be a lock, and a top 40 RPI. Another win in their first game in the conference tourney would make them a lock. If the Trojans can manage to go 2-0 this week at home then we would have to take another look at putting them back in the bracket this weekend.

San Diego at St. Mary's
The Gaels' tournament hopes might be resting on what happens this weekend. But before they get a shot at Utah State in Moraga, they have to take care of business at home tonight against San Diego. The Toreros started off 4-0 in conference, but they have hit the skids in a big way ever since. They've lost six of their last seven games, including a 23-point home loss to the Gaels back on Jan. 22. Patty Mills had a big first half for St. Mary's in that game, but he won't be there to help out this time around. The Gaels are just 2-4 since their star guard went down, and if they don't beat the Aggies this weekend, their chance at an at-large, which is already in major trouble, will begin to look very, very bleak. If they slip up here against the Toreros, or lose any other WCC game down the stretch, those at-large chances would be near zero.

Also receiving votes: Duke at St. John's, Wisconsin at Indiana, Xavier at Charlotte, Western Kentucky at Arkansas-Little Rock

A Six Pack For Wednesday

A look at the six most notable games on Wednesday's schedule:

Notre Dame at West Virginia
We didn't expect the Irish to quietly fade into oblivion, but we certainly didn't expect this. Their blowout win over Louisville on Thursday was convincing enough to get them back on our Next Four Out list, and it has them back in the discussion for the final Big East at-large. Whether or not they complete a miracle comeback and sneak into the field may be decided over the next few days. ND kicks off its week tonight at West Virginia, and then they play at Providence on Saturday. Their schedule after the Providence game isn't that hard (Rutgers, at UConn, Villanova, St. John's), and if they could ever go 2-0 this week, it would likely ensure them of no worse than a 9-9 finish in conference. The Irish would probably still need to win at least two games in the Big East tournament to lock down a bid, but with their talent level and their (at times) high-powered offense, that scenario is not out of the realm of possibility. First things first, though, they'll need to find a way to upset a Mountaineers team that has played extremely well at home this season. Led by Da'Sean Butler's 43 points, West Virginia destroyed Villanova in Morgantown on Friday night, holding the high-octane 'Nova offense to just 72 points. That's 30 points fewer than the Wildcats averaged against Syracuse and Marquette in the two games prior.

Providence at Louisville
Providence is holding on to the eighth and final Big East bid for the moment, but as we've discussed at length already this week, there are several teams right on their tail. One of those teams is Cincinnati, who the Friars just replaced in our Field of 65. At 8-5 in conference, Providence has a slight edge resume-wise right now over the Bearcats, who they've beaten twice head-to-head. Unfortunately for the Friars, the schedule makers didn't make things too easy for them down the stretch. They have the toughest schedule left of any of the Big East bubble teams, and tonight they face an angry Louisville team that returns home after being embarrassed in South Bend. After this game, Providence hosts Notre Dame on Saturday in what is going to be a huge bubble battle. Then they host Pittsburgh and finish up with games at Rutgers and at Villanova. It's a daunting set of games for a team that has admittedly overachieved this year. Making things even harder tonight is the fact that, after UConn's loss to Pitt, Louisville knows it is still much alive in the race for the Big East title. We're sure Rick Pitino let his guys know this, and there are a bunch of bubble teams out there hoping his message was heard loud and clear.

Miami (FL) at Florida State
Maybe we're missing something, but we have absolutely no idea why so many bracketologists still have Miami in their brackets. There is no way, especially if the bracket is supposed to be based on the "season ending today" that a Miami team that is 4-7 in conference and that has lost five of its last six games still deserves a bid. The Hurricanes may have some good ACC wins (Wake, FSU, BC, Maryland), but three out of those four came at home, and in between those wins, Miami has lost at N.C. State and to Virginia Tech at home. Miami hasn't done much out of conference either, and their only OOC win of note - a victory at Kentucky back in December - doesn't look all that great anymore. To get a bid, Miami might have to win out, and that challenge starts tonight at Florida State. The 'Noles are coming off a 23-point beatdown at the hands of Wake over the weekend that dropped them to 6-4 in conference and from a 5 seed to a 7 seed in our latest bracket. Their remaining schedule (this game, then at VT, at BC, Clemson, at Duke, and VT) is pretty rough, which makes holding serve at home against a Miami team that has already beaten them once that much more important.

Virginia Tech at Virginia
We don't know why so many bracketologists have Virginia Tech safely in either (Lunardi has them a 9 seed ahead of BC). The Hokies were able to sneak into the bracket a few weeks ago after their road wins over Wake Forest and Miami. Since then, they have lost threeof five, including a loss at fellow bubble boy Maryland this past weekend. Their best OOC win was against Fairfield and they have a borderline 51 RPI. Getting nine wins in conference is a must for the Hokies, which makes this one a must-win with their remaining schedule (FSU twice, Clemson, Duke, and UNC). A 3-3 finish for the Hokies will have them dancing, but they better not take the Cavaliers lightly. Clemson did that this weekend and suffered an OT loss that broke Virginia's eight-game losing streak.

Penn State at Illinois
Just when we were ready to write the Nittany Lions off, they went out and snapped their three-game skid with a win over Minnesota. The win got them back over .500 in conference, but still leaves them with plenty of work to do. Penn State has already beaten the best conference team on the road and now looks to knock off the second best. It certainly won't be an easy task since the Illini have yet to drop a conference home game. Nittany Lion fans hope that Talor Battle's 21 point performance over the weekend broke him out of his slump in which he scored only 19 total points in three straight losses. He will certainly need to have a big game for Penn State to have any chance. The Illini moved up to a 4 seed this week after going 2-0 last week and are now only one game out of first after Michigan State lost to Purdue. They would probably have to win out to have a chance at first, which would likely mean at least a 3 seed on Selection Sunday.

South Carolina at Mississippi State
The Gamecocks have quietly won six of seven and have solidified their spot in the bracket. They have a gaudy 18-5 record but have been unable to climb higher than the 11 line since they have no OOC resume and 10 of their wins have come against teams with RPIs greater than 150. They were able to pull off another last-second thriller at Alabama on Saturday when they came back from a 10-point halftime deficit. You also may not have noticed that the Gamecocks are tied for first in the SEC East with Tennessee and have a relatively easy schedule remaining. This game against the Bulldogs is their most difficult road game remaining, and they have the luxury of playing Kentucky and Tennessee at home. If they can win this game tonight then they would have to be viewed as the favorite to win the SEC East and they would see a dramatic rise in their current seed next week.

Also receiving votes: North Carolina State at North Carolina, Georgetown at South Florida, Alabama at Florida, Tennessee at Mississippi, Ohio State at Northwestern, Colorado at Nebraska, Butler at Milwaukee, UNLV at Wyoming, Utah at Colorado State

A Two Pack For Tuesday

A look at the two most notable games on Tuesday's schedule:

Michigan State at Purdue
Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, and Minnesota have been jockeying for position in the Big Ten behind Michigan State all season long. Tonight the Boilermakers get a chance to make a case that they're the conference's second best team as they welcome the Spartans to Mackey Arena. Purdue is coming off a 2-0 week that included win at home against Penn State and a road win at Iowa. Those wins moved them up to the 5 line in this week's bracket, which is one line behind the Illini and three lines behind frontrunner Michigan State. The Spartans won an ugly game at Michigan on Tuesday to move up to the top of the 2 line in our latest field, which is the highest they've been since the preseason. Their win over the Wolverines marked the third straight game that Michigan State has held an opponent under 50 points, and more impressively, it also kept their perfect road record intact. The Spartans are 7-0 this season away from East Lansing and 6-0 in conference road games. If they push that road win streak in conference to seven, they will move one step closer to winning their first Big Ten title since 2001. If Purdue comes out on top, they would move to within a game of the Spartans in conference and probably up to the 4 line - alongside but still behind the Illini - next week.

Maryland at Clemson
If Maryland doesn't make the tournament - which is still a very likely scenario at this point - it certainly won't because of a lack of chances. The Terps are set to embark on a five-game stretch that starts with this game and includes home games against North Carolina, Duke, and Wake Forest. A 3-2 record in those five games would put the Terps at 8-7 in the ACC heading into their very winnable season finale at Virginia. Even if they finish 8-8 in conference, Maryland would still be very alive in the at-large discussion entering the ACC tourney because of their OOC wins over Michigan State and Michigan. We know these scenarios might seem far-fetched - especially for a team that has just one road win on its resume and hasn't been above .500 in conference since they won their ACC opener - but anything is still possible at this point. Clemson, meanwhile, limps into this game after committing 21 turnovers and inexplicably losing at Virginia on Sunday. That loss, their fourth in their last eight games, dropped the slumping Tigers to 6-4 in conference and knocked them down to a 3 seed in our latest bracket. The Tigers got leap-frogged by Wake Forest and sit just behind Duke on our latest S-curve. They'll need to win this game to avoid dropping down to the 4 line next week. They haven't been that low since they were a 9 seed in our first Field Of 65 back in November.

Also receiving votes: Seton Hall at Marquette, Kentucky at Vanderbilt, New Mexico at BYU

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Feb. 16

We didn't make a lot of changes to the bracket this week in terms of new teams in, but some of the changes we did make - especially at the bottom of the bracket - were made after much debate. The first change came in the Big East, where Providence replaced Cincinnati on the 11 line. The move may seem a bit harsh considering the Bearcats didn't really do anything wrong last week, but looking big picture, Cincinnati made the bracket in the first place because of their season sweep over Georgetown. Those wins don't look that great now, and when we combined that with the fact that the Friars have beaten the Bearcats twice, Providence got the nod.

The bigger, and much more difficult decision, came when we tried to figure out the last team in. USC's two-loss week opened up a spot, and there were no big conference teams that had done enough to fill it. We gave Penn State a long look, but the Nittany Lions play at Ohio State and at Illinois this week, and we don't like their chances to win either one of those games. We didn't want to put in an ninth Big East team (which eliminated Cincinnati and Notre Dame) because we think too much has to break right for the conference, even as stacked as it is, to get nine bids. The same could be said for the ACC and its potential eight bids. We can't see the ACC getting eight in the end, which meant no bid for Miami (why are so many people still so obsessed with the Hurricanes??) or Maryland. The Terps have a ton of chances to pick up a quality win coming up, but they have yet to show they can hang with the big boys in the ACC. We didn't want to go with a fourth MWC team either (three from the MWC is even a stretch at this point), so we settled instead for one of our famous bid stealers.

We have been looking for a bid stealer to take the place of one of these mediocre big conference bubble teams for a while now, and we think we finally found one in Temple. The A-10 tournament is going to be wide open, and Xavier and Dayton have proved over the last two weeks that they aren't unbeatable. The Musketeers and Flyers are also solidly in the field as at-larges, which means Temple winning the A-10 tourney wouldn't bump one of them out. The Owls were also intriguing this week because of the road wins they picked up at St. Joseph's and Duquesne. Those wins got them to 7-3 in conference and if they were to win out (they only have one tough game left at Dayton), the Owls would have an outside chance at an at-large. Even if they lose that Dayton game and aren't at-large worthy, we think they have a good chance to win the A-10 tourney and steal a bid. They were by far our best bid-stealer option, although we did consider a second team out of the Horizon (but the conference tourney will be on Butler's home floor) and a second team out of the WAC after Utah State's loss, but we still think the Aggies are the league's best team and thus we decided against putting in Boise State or Nevada.

The only other important changes to this week's bracket were that Memphis moved up to the 2 line thanks to losses by Duke and Clemson, Missouri moved up to a season-high 3 seed, Arizona State moved up to a 5 after completing its season sweep of UCLA, Arizona moved up to a 9 after sweeping USC and UCLA, Florida slid down to a 10 after a two-loss week, and several small conferences switched their representatives.

Bracket Breakdown
In This Week
Providence, Temple, Creighton, VCU, Binghamton, Jacksonville, Cal State Northridge

Out This Week
Cincinnati, USC, Northern Iowa, Northeastern, Boston University, East Tennessee State, Long Beach State

Last Four In
Virginia Tech, Providence, Kansas State, San Diego State

Last Four Out
Penn State, BYU, Cincinnati, Maryland

Next Four Out
Miami (FL), Michigan, USC, Notre Dame

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Conference Breakdown
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big Ten (6), Big XII (5), Pac-10 (5), SEC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3)

America East - Binghamton

ACC - North Carolina, Wake Forest, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech

Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville

A-10 - Temple, Xavier, Dayton

Big East - Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Providence

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - VMI

Big Ten - Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Big XII - Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Texas, Kansas State

Big West - Cal State Northridge

Colonial - VCU

Conference USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Buffalo

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Creighton

MWC - Utah, UNLV, San Diego State

Northeast - Robert Morris

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - UCLA, Arizona State, California, Washington, Arizona

Patriot - American

SEC - LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Stephen F. Austin

Summit - North Dakota State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

SWAC - Alabama State

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga

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The Seeds
The 1s
Connecticut, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Pittsburgh

The 2s
Michigan State, Louisville, Wake Forest, Memphis

The 3s
Clemson, Duke, Marquette, Missouri

The 4s
Villanova, Kansas, Illinois, Xavier

The 5s
Arizona State, Purdue, California, Gonzaga

The 6s
Washington, Ohio State, UCLA, Butler

The 7s
Florida State, Dayton, Syracuse, Texas

The 8s
West Virginia, LSU, Minnesota, Boston College

The 9s
Utah, Arizona, Tennessee, Utah State

The 10s
Davidson, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Florida

The 11s
UNLV, South Carolina, Providence, Kansas State

The 12s
Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Temple, Siena

The 13s
Creighton, Buffalo, VCU, Western Kentucky

The 14s
Stephen F. Austin, Weber State, Binghamton, VMI

The 15s
North Dakota State, American, Cornell, Jacksonville

The 16s
Cal State Northridge, Morehead State, Robert Morris, Morgan State (Play-In Game), Alabama State (Play-In-Game)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)













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