Monday, January 15, 2007

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Jan. 15

The Breakdown
Another week full of upsets meant another week full of change in the bracket. After 13 new additions last week, 11 more changes were made this week, including some mix-ups in both the big and small conferences. The ACC had the most movement, as Georgia Tech (fresh off its upset of Duke) and Boston College replace slumping Virginia and Florida State. Washington's free-fall (1-5 in conference...yikes) finally landed it out of the bracket, but the Pac-10 kept its six bids as Stanford (off a state of Washington sweep) made the field. In the Big Ten, which continues to be anyone's guess at this point, Michigan State replaces Michigan, while Creighton, the MVC's new first place team, gets the league's fifth bid.

The most interesting and toughest-to-call conference this week proved to be the Colonial. For weeks, the CAA had been a two-bid league, with Drexel - thanks to its nice OOC wins over Syracuse and Villanova - earning an at-large. The Dragons have slipped since then, though, capped by a drubbing at Old Dominion, and aren't at-large worthy anymore. Until Saturday, it looked like Hofstra (winners over both ODU and Drexel already) would get the league's lone bid, but the Pride lost to lowly Northeastern. The easiest solution would be to put unbeaten VCU in the field, but their spotless mark has come entirely against the league's bottom feeders. They'll still need to beat someone noteworthy to get a look. In the end, we decided the conference deserved only one bid (for the time being), and gave it to Hofstra (despite the NE hiccup) based on head-to-head wins over ODU and Drexel.

The CAA is one of many mid-majors who are on the two-bid bubble. The A-10 is a crowded mess at this point with UMass playing well and Xavier playing inconsistenly, and in the end the league may deserve two bids. For now, we kept the Musketeers in by themselves, based on the fact that they get a shot at the Minutemen at home Thursday. In the WAC, New Mexico State keeps winning (13 in a row) and remains in our bracket, where they have been for weeks. Will they finally make into anyone else's?

Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for Jan. 15:

Last Four In
Arkansas, UConn, Indiana State, Michigan State

Last Four Out
Virginia, Massachusetts, Texas Tech, Michigan

Conference Breakdown
ACC (7), Big East (7), Pac-10 (6), SEC (6), MVC (5), Big XII (4), Big Ten (4), MWC (2), WAC (2)

America East - Vermont

ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Georgia Tech

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier

Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia, Syracuse, UConn

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State

Big 12 - Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Hofstra

C-USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Loyola (MD)

MAC - Ohio

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Creighton, Northern Iowa, Indiana State

MWC - Air Force, UNLV

Northeast - Sacred Heart

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay

Pac-10 - UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Washington State, USC, Stanford

Patriot - Holy Cross

SEC - Florida, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas

Southern - Appalachian State

Southland - Sam Houston State

SWAC - Jackson State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

WAC - Nevada, New Mexico State

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds
The 1s
UCLA, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin

The 2s
Oregon, Kansas, Ohio State, Arizona

The 3s
Pittsburgh, Air Force, Alabama, Texas A&M

The 4s
Oklahoma State, Duke, LSU, Memphis

The 5s
Nevada, Clemson, Notre Dame, Butler

The 6s
Washington State, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Tennessee

The 7s
Texas, Marquette, Kentucky, Southern Illinois

The 8s
USC, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Missouri State

The 9s
Creighton, West Virginia, Indiana, Boston College

The 10s
Stanford, Syracuse, UNLV, Georgia Tech

The 11s
Xavier, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, UConn

The 12s
Michigan State, Indiana State, New Mexico State, Hofstra

The 13s
Winthrop, Western Kentucky, Ohio, Appalachian State

The 14s
Oral Roberts, Holy Cross, Penn, Vermont

The 15s
Loyola (MD), Sacred Heart, Weber State, Long Beach State

The 16s
Belmont, Austin Peay, Sam Houston State, Delaware State (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
This Week's Bracket - Jan. 15

Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

Sunday, January 14, 2007

Some (Long But Important) Questions For The Competition

In the rapidly growing world of online bracketology, it seems that a new prognosticator or “expert” crops up every week, ready to proclaim that their picks are the best or most accurate or most realistic ones available for the avid college basketball fan. Each of these new additions to the bracketology pool also champion themselves as the “anti-Lunardi,” or an “underground alternative” to ESPN’s (in)famous bracketologist. Three years ago, that was our mantra as well (and it still is), as it is for most of the popular bracketology sites.

Admittedly, it’s easy to pick on Lunardi. He claims to have invented bracketology, he’s ESPN’s guy (Insider needed for most content, of course), he’s everywhere come Championship Week, and he comes across as a smug, easily-offended “genius” in a field where many know more and do better with their annual projections than he does. He also lost a ton of credibility in “the bracketology world” last season thanks to his shady, 11th hour, not-even-last-four-out-to-in-the-field George Mason inclusion.

What’s the point here? Well, last year at this point in the season, we at Bracketology 101 started a weekly “Questions For The Competition” post, which “asked” each of the major bracketology sites (ESPN, Bracketography.com, CollegeRPI.com, Bracketology 101) questions about their brackets. The questions were meant to point out glaring mistakes, omissions, inclusions, or confusing seed lines in each “expert’s” bracket. The whole concept started out of our weekly objections to Lunardi's work and the questions were an attempt for us to prove ourselves as a more reliable alternative to ESPN.com.

We planned on starting the “Questions” posts again this week, but instead, decided that in the end, there is only one question that needs to be asked to many in the bracketology world, and Lunardi specifically, before much more of the season passes:

What is the point of putting together a weekly bracket with the premise of “this is how the bracket would look if the season ended today?”

For years, this practice has bothered us. Since when did the college basketball season “end today,” when it’s mid-January, or mid-February? Are fans worried about their team today, or if come mid-March that team will be dancing?

All would prefer the latter, but many bracketologists don’t offer much of a look ahead. Their argument for an “ended today” bracket is for immediacy, and a need to make weekly sense of the crazy college basketball world. Their real reason, though, for this “ended today” way of putting together a bracket is this: By “ending a season today” current conference leaders (especially in the mid-major and low-major teams) get automatic bids, throwing everyone else in the league into the at-large pool. All that does is make life a million times easier for Joe Lunardi and Co, and makes their brackets, for lack of better terms, unreliable and fairly useless.
Take, for example, Lunardi’s handling of the A-10 in last week’s bracket. Lunardi has two teams in from the conference (Xavier and Saint Joseph’s) when there is little to no case that the A-10 deserves two teams at this point. Since Saint Joseph’s is in first place in conference (2-0), though, they get a bid, while Xavier gets the at-large bid. Seems legit right? Not exactly – especially if you are a fan of any of the teams on Lunardi’s Last Four Out list (Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Creighton, Providence) or Next Four Out list (DePaul, Missouri, Michigan, Illinois). If you are a fan of one of those eight teams, and only looked at Lunardi’s bracket, you have no clue where you stand. By taking the easy way out and putting two A-10 teams in (and justifying it by a meaningless 2-0 start to conference play), Lunardi has one less tough “bubble” decision to make each week. He’ll just put a 10-5 Saint Joseph’s team that might not be one of the four best teams in the A-10 and whose wins are against Charlotte and Temple (a combined 12-16) in the bracket instead.

These Last Four In and Last Four Out picks are the hardest for us at B101 to make each week. It takes a huge chunk of time to review all of these teams’ resumes, and decide who makes that final cut. There is, for us at least, no easy way out. There is, instead, each Monday, an accurate “bubble” and a bracket full of the teams that belong in the bracket now as well as those who will be in at the end of the year (not “today.”) The teams with the best resumes and the best projected resumes are in; those who are a phony 2-0 in conference and won’t sniff the Big Dance are not.

Now, I know the stats (and pokerplayr) will point out that we had one less team right last year than Lunardi (if we knew someone in the room we would have had 63 too), and some will say that this is a long-winded attempt to say we are the “best bracketology site ever.” That’s not the point. The point of this mini-rant is to get some insight and to pose one big Question To The Competition:

Why don’t you stop shying away from making difficult decisions and stop qualifying your easy-to-make bracket with “if the season ended today?”

Why don’t you start making brackets that reflect where teams really stand?


It’s January 14th, Joe (and Co.). Nothing’s over yet. The college basketball season “ends” in two months.

See if you can make one tough call by then.

Monday, January 08, 2007

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Jan. 8

The Breakdown
Wow...what a difference a week makes. After a crazy five days in college basketball, which included some wild finishes, a handful of top 10 teams going down, and big and small conference play really heating up, a ridiculous 13 teams are new to this week's bracket.

Seven of those teams are small conference teams that benefited from a strong first few league games, the other six teams are all from major or mid-major conferences. The Big Ten continues to be a mess, as Purdue and Michigan State are out thanks to losses, and are replaced by Michigan and Indiana. The ACC also saw a shakeup as Virginia Tech (big W at Duke) and Virginia (impressive win over Gonzaga) make an appearance, replacing tough-luck Georgia Tech (loss at buzzer to Clemson) and Boston College. The Eagles didn't lose this week, but as is the case this time of year, saw teams around them build up big enough resumes to give them a temporary boot from the bracket. Arkansas, fresh off a thrashing of Alabama, returns to the bracket this week, while Kansas State, thanks to a 0-2 week, falls out. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the bracket comes out of the MVC, where Wichita State's improbable skid has ballooned to five losses in six games, putting them on the outside looking in - for now. In instead is Indiana State, the MVC's hottest team and winners of five straight. The Sycamores host Wichita on Wednesday.

Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for Jan. 8:

Last Four In
Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Florida State, Indiana

Last Four Out
Wichita State, Michigan State, Boston College, Providence

Conference Breakdown
ACC (7), Big East (7), Pac-10 (6), SEC (6), Big XII (4), Big Ten (4), MVC (4), MWC (2), WAC (2), Colonial (2)

America East - Albany

ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Florida State

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier

Big East - Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Marquette, UConn, Syracuse

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana

Big 12 - Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Old Dominion, Drexel

C-USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Marist

MAC - Ohio

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Howard

MVC - Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Southern Illinois, Indiana State

MWC - Air Force, UNLV

Northeast - Sacred Heart

Ohio Valley - Samford

Pac-10 - UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Washington State, Washington, USC

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas

Southern - Appalachian State

Southland - Sam Houston State

SWAC - Jackson State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

WAC - Nevada, New Mexico State

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds
The 1s
North Carolina, UCLA, Florida, Wisconsin

The 2s
Arizona, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Kansas

The 3s
Oklahoma State, Butler, Oregon, Duke

The 4s
Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU, Air Force

The 5s
Nevada, Clemson, Alabama, Georgetown

The 6s
Memphis, Notre Dame, Washington State, Maryland

The 7s
Northern Iowa, Texas, Washington, Kentucky

The 8s
USC, West Virginia, Missouri State, Gonzaga

The 9s
Marquette, Southern Illinois, UNLV, Drexel

The 10s
Arkansas, Indiana State, UConn, Virginia

The 11s
Xavier, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Syracuse

The 12s
Indiana, Florida State, New Mexico State, Old Dominion

The 13s
Winthrop, Western Kentucky, Ohio, Appalachian State

The 14s
Oral Roberts, Bucknell, Penn, Marist

The 15s
Albany, Sacred Heart, Weber State, Long Beach State

The 16s
Belmont, Samford, Sam Houston State, Howard (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
This Week's Bracket - Jan. 8

Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Jan. 3

The Breakdown
First off, Happy New Year from Bracketology 101. We wish all of our readers a successful, healthy, and exciting 2007. With the new year comes the time for a new bracket, and there were a couple of interesting changes this week. Some teams (Wichita, UConn) fell several seed lines, while others (Butler, Air Force, Northern Iowa) continued to climb. The ever-impressive Pac-10, which is No. 1 in conference RPI to date, earned a sixth bid this week as USC made its bracket debut. West Virginia also cracks the bracket thanks to their blowout win at home over the Huskies. The toughest decision in this week's bracket turned out to be the selection of the fourth team from the mediocre Big Ten. The final spot came down to Purdue (L vs. Indiana State last week) or Illinois (L vs. Xavier last week), and in the end, the Boilermakers got the nod based on a couple more quality wins, the Illini's tough upcoming schedule, and the fact that Purdue hosts Illinois Jan. 27 in the team's only match-up this season. The MVC kept its same four teams in this week, albeit in a different order, and also saw Creighton step up its play enough to earn a spot on the Last Four Out list. The only other change of note was Xavier replacing Dayton as the A-10's automatic bid.

Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for Jan. 3:

Out This Week
Illinois, Texas Tech, Dayton

In This Week
West Virginia, USC, Xavier

Last Four In
Syracuse, Kansas State, Georgia Tech, Purdue

Last Four Out
Illinois, Creighton, Stanford, Texas Tech

Conference Breakdown
ACC (7), Big East (7), Pac-10 (6), Big XII (5), SEC (5), Big Ten (4), MVC (4), MWC (2), WAC (2), Colonial (2)

America East - Albany

ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Maryland, Florida State, Boston College, Georgia Tech

Atlantic Sun - Lipscomb

A-10 - Xavier

Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Marquette, UConn, Georgetown, West Virginia, Syracuse

Big Sky - Portland State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue

Big 12 - Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas State

Big West - UC-Santa Barbara

Colonial - Old Dominion, Drexel

C-USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Marist

MAC - Akron

MCC - Southern Utah

MEAC - Howard

MVC - Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Missouri State

MWC - Air Force, UNLV

Northeast - Sacred Heart

Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky

Pac-10 - UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Washington State, USC

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky

Southern - Appalachian State

Southland - SE Louisiana

SWAC - Alabama A&M

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

WAC - Nevada, New Mexico State

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds
The 1s
UCLA, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin

The 2s
Arizona, Ohio State, Duke, Pittsburgh

The 3s
Kansas, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Butler

The 4s
Tennessee, Texas A&M, Oregon, Notre Dame

The 5s
LSU, Washington, Nevada, Air Force

The 6s
Gonzaga, Memphis, Texas, Marquette

The 7s
UConn, Clemson, Georgetown, Maryland

The 8s
Northern Iowa, Washington State, Michigan State, Southern Illinois

The 9s
Wichita State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida State

The 10s
Drexel, Boston College, West Virginia, Missouri State

The 11s
USC, Syracuse, Kansas State, Xavier

The 12s
Georgia Tech, New Mexico State, Purdue, Old Dominion

The 13s
Winthrop, Western Kentucky, Akron, Southern Utah

The 14s
Bucknell, Penn, Appalachian State, Marist

The 15s
Albany, Sacred Heart, Portland State, UC-Santa Barbara

The 16s
Lipscomb, Eastern Kentucky, SE Louisiana, Howard (Play-In Game), Alabama A&M (Play-In Game)

Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com