Wow, what a day/afternoon/night! The buzzer beaters, the overtimes, the comebacks, the great individual performances...that 36-33 game (ugh). Here's a recap of yesterday's events and a quick overview of how we see things with just about 36 hours to go before the Selection Show:Saturday Update
We have been waiting for the bubble teams to make their moves for a few weeks and it just never happened. Better late than never, right? Michigan State, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Richmond (and St. Mary's) all won last night, and in many cases (Michigan, Michigan State, Virginia Tech) the wins look to be bid-clinchers.
The hardest thing for us to do was pick the 37th an final at-large team from a pool of pretty ugly and very smiliar resumes. We said in our Friday notes that if Penn State beat Wisconsin, that they woud "likely" end up on the Last Four In line. The Nittany Lions held up their part of the deal, but as you can see in our bracket, we didn't hold up on our end. Clemson, not Penn State, is the final team in our field, as a result of the Tigers' blowout win over Boston College. The Nittany Lions may still be able to sneak in the field, even with a loss to Michigan State today, but we think they are still just shy of a bid heading into Saturday's action. Depending on how well they play and what Clemson does against UNC, they can get in. Right now, though, they are our last team out.
Big picture-wise, there are five teams in our bracket that we could potentially see getting left out - Alabama, Colorado, St. Mary's, Georgia, or Clemson. The three teams we think that have a chance for an at-large over any of these teams are Penn State, UAB, or USC. Obviously, if a bid- stealer comes out of the WAC or A-10 today, everything changes.
Some other important notes from Friday night:
- The Pac-10 results on Friday were a dream come true for bubble teams.
- There is still the chance for bid stealers out of the A-10 and WAC.
- Bubble teams need to pull for Memphis to beat UTEP.
- With ND losing to Louisville, there is definitely a potential opening on the 1 line. Can Duke get there if Nolan Smith is out? Can BYU climb back up? Those questions will get answered today.
This is our last bracket that will be released before our final Field of 68, which will be posted bracket on Sunday afternoon. We will answer as many questions as we can via Twitter and the comments section today and tomorrow. Enjoy Championship Weekend!
Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In
Colorado, St. Mary's, Georgia, Clemson
First Four Out
Penn State, UAB, USC, Boston College
Next Four Out
Memphis, VCU, Missouri State, Harvard
---------------------------------------------------------------
Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)
America East - Boston University
ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
A-10 - Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, Connecticut, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Marquette, Villanova
Big Sky - Northern Colorado
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State
Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri, Colorado
Big West - Long Beach State
Colonial - Old Dominion, George Mason
Conference USA - UTEP
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Princeton
MAAC - St. Peter's
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Morgan State
MVC - Indiana State
MWC - BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Morehead State
Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Patriot - Bucknell
SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia
Southern - Wofford
Southland - McNeese State
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock
SWAC - Alabama State
WAC - Utah State
WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
The 2s
Duke, BYU, North Carolina, Florida
The 3s
Louisville, San Diego State, Texas, Syracuse
The 4s
Connecticut, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Purdue
The 5s
Arizona, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgetown
The 6s
Temple, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
The 7s
Xavier, Kansas State, Old Dominion, UNLV
The 8s
Utah State, UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee
The 9s
Missouri, Marquette, Gonzaga, Illinois
The 10s
Washington, Butler, Michigan, Villanova
The 11s
Michigan State, Florida State, Richmond, Virginia Tech
The 12s
Alabama, Colorado vs. St. Mary's (FF), Georgia vs. Clemson (FF), UTEP
The 13s
Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Kent State
The 14s
Bucknell, Indiana State, St. Peter's, Wofford
The 15s
Morehead State, Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado
The 16s
Boston University, UNC-Asheville, Morgan State vs. McNeese State (FF), Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Alabama State (FF)
The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
Questions? Comments? E-mail us at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com or send us a tweet at twitter.com/Bracketology101.
Amazed their aren't 10 comments already from mad Penn St. fans. WHy does USC seem to be getting more consideration today after losing to Arizona. Both you and luinardi have them with a chance. (He has them in I believe) What happened to lose and no chance. I think UAB and Penn St. are only teams that have a case to take a spot and USC should not be this close to in.
ReplyDeleteOK, I'll be first to ask whether the broken collarbone suffered last night by Michigan's junior left wing David Wohlberg in a 5-1 win over Bowling Green seriously damages the 24-9-4 Wolverines' chances of getting a one seed.
ReplyDeleteOops. Sorry, wrong bracket.
Have a nice day and Go Blue!
Man, we were a Northwestern OT upset away from the craziest BTT semifinals ever! Crazy!
ReplyDeletePSU fan here...and surprisingly not mad. I think they need one more win to seal the deal. I'm just still not getting why USC is in the conversation. And in my pipe dream, I'd still like to see VCU, Missouri state, St. Mary's get in over USC, Georgia, Michigan, etc.
ReplyDeleteBecause of Notre Dame's loss, I'm now my wife's beer slave during PSU's spring scrimmage weekend. One time I root for the Irish...and it blows up in my face. They should still be a #1, right??
Can Saturday possibly top Friday??
Sometimes it is just a matter of you don't know what the committee is going to value most when they select teams. Will it be quality wins, will it be winning your regular season title, will it be SOS, etc. USC has quality wins in and out of conference and they finished 7-3 (picking up wins over the teams in the Pac-10 final). Maybe the committee overlooks all the bad losses. You are constantly reevaluating teams and trying analyze ways they can get in.
ReplyDeleteThe lack of bid stealers so far has really create somewhat of a mess in trying to choose the last few bubble teams.
If Duke and BYU lose ND should still be a 1.
ReplyDeleteA PSU loss today and I think we'll be the first team "out" like 2009, especially with the A-10/WAC/C-USA situations unfolding, along with VT and Clemson back in the fold. A lot of things have broken right for us to get back in this, but the VT and Alabama performances this weekend have hurt.
ReplyDeleteA PSU win today and not only are we in, I think we skip the "first 4" since I don't think the committee wants to take a team that plays Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun and throw them into a game again on Tue/Wed.
Honest, non-sarcastic questions follow: Why is George Mason so solidly in? They haven't even been in anyone's "last four in," at least not that I can see. Resume follows:
ReplyDeleteAccording to RPI:
Record vs. top 50: 3-2
Record vs. top 51-100: 5-2
"Bad" wins (150+): 13 (of 26)
Best non-conference win: Harvard
According to Pomeroy:
Record vs. top 50: 0-0
Record vs. top 51-100: 5-5
"Bad" wins (150+): 17 (of 26)
Best non-conference win: Duquesne
I am not saying they SHOULDN'T be in, but is that really the resume of a team that's a "lock" to get in? Would GM be so safe in everyone's eyes if their name wasn't "George Mason" and everyone didn't have 2006 in their memories? Should that be a factor?
If Duke wins the ACC tourney will they get a #1 seed? How much of that depends on Nolan Smith's health, how much of that depends on them facing UNC, and how much of that depends on if BYU wins?
ReplyDeleteDo you expect there to be more debate this year over seeding and pod placement than over who gets in and who gets left out?
ReplyDeleteAnd who do you think could be this year's Northern Iowa? Belmont seems to be the obvious favorite, but could Bucknell, Oakland or the Ivy League winner take on the Cinderella role?
How do you explain Va. Tech in and BC out? BC beat Va. Tech twice, has a better RPI and SOS.
ReplyDeleteThe ACC games had an interesting effect yesterday. It knocked both Florida State and Boston College out of the RPI top 50, while VT and Clemson are still outside of the top 50. Now Clemson is 0-5 against the top 50, Florida State is 1-5 against the top 50, Virginia Tech is 2-4 against the top 50, and BC is 1-5 against the top 50.
ReplyDeleteGreat post, J Gibson and the anonymous guy. Seems to me that if it came down to Va Tech and BC, you'd take both or neither. Va Tech 0-2 vs. BC has to count, no? And why are they on the 11 line, not even in a play-in game? Va Tech just lost to Clemson last week. I don't get it.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the love toward BYU. I don't think they can get a 1 seed without a STRONG win today, and probably Duke losing, but I love that they are at least in the conversation. Their only loss in the last long while was within 24 hours of losing a key member of the team in a way that was more devastating than I think a lot of people understand. I am not saying you should accept their stance as correct, I am just saying they were concerned about the effect on the team as well as their brother's eternal salvation.
ReplyDeleteGetting blown out, even by UNM, even at home, wasn't totally unexpeceted. And they have picked up the pieces very nicely.
Of all the Big Ten teams playing tomorrow, PSU needs the win the most. They might still need to win the automatic bid. The same goes for Alabama.
ReplyDeleteCan we *please* cut out the "Utah State could get an at-large" nonsense? That team is a house of cards and everybody *knows* they're going to lose today. That' just what they do: run away with the #1 seed and lose in the final. The committee needs to realize that Stew Morrill is seriously disrespecting other mid-majors who actually go out and schedule tough non-conference games while he's arrogantly refusing to play ball with anyone who won't come to his place. Who does he think he is, Jim Boeheim?
Virginia Tech's best three wins (Duke, FSU neutral, FSU home) are better than BC's best three wins (A&M neutral, at VT, VT). That's a big reason the Hokies have a slight edge right now.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Utah State gets left out. They have a raw RPI in the teens and have a road win over St. Mary's. If it came down to them vs. St. Mary's, I think St. Mary's would be the one in trouble.
ReplyDeleteConnecticut still a 4 seed? Come on, with their resume
ReplyDeleteI find it telling that VT was the only bubble team who did not play an RPI Top 50 team yesterday, and now they get Duke without *both* of its elite point guards.
ReplyDeleteWe think UConn could easily be a 3. Just couldn't find a team to move to the 4 line last night, though.
ReplyDeleteUtah State enters today with an 18 RPI. We can't see them getting left out if they lose tonight. Their win at St. Mary's is ginormous right now.
ReplyDeleteIf SDSU loses in the MWC final, UConn will definitely be a 3 seed.
ReplyDeleteIf Duke wins the ACCT and Smith is fine for NCAA tourney they get the last 1.
ReplyDeleteMost years there is more debate about seeding and placement in the end since there are generally more things to pick on in those areas rather than the last team in. This year will likely be the same.
#1 is going down today. GO BLUE! Would they move up to an 8 or 9 with a win over Ohio State today?
ReplyDeleteWhy does Memphis need to beat UTEP to help the other bubble teams? Won't the CUSA dance either one (CUSA final winner) or two (UAB) teams either way?
ReplyDeleteBecause Memphis has a slight chance at an at-large.
ReplyDeleteHow did Georgetown leap frog up overnight? Is the potential of Chris Wright really that promising?
ReplyDeleteI guess beating a top 15 ranked team has equal weight to beating a bubble acc team...only explanation.
ReplyDelete@Blind
ReplyDeleteThe George Mason numbers are interesting. However, this comment page usually isn't the best forum for that debate. Once a team has been established as a "lock" by the bracketology community, then any challenge to that status is simply disregarded as "crazy talk".
@10:32
ReplyDeleteYou say crazy talk, others say irrelevant. Debating whether or not a team that WILL be in the tournament SHOULD be in the tournament is an exercise in futility. Time could be far better spent on actual topics.
What are the chances of CUSA dancing three (UAB, Memphis, UTEP); is it UAB or Memphis but not both if UTEP wins?
ReplyDeleteAlso, If there are three dance catagories (lock, should-be-in, and work-left-to-do, i.e. not-in-right-now), In which category are VT and Clem? What effect does the series between VT, Clem, and BC have on this?
Penn state has an rpi of 43 and an SOS of 5 Why aren't in?
ReplyDelete@10:48
ReplyDelete4 Top 80 wins, 3-8 road record, home losses to Maryland and Maine.
Geeorge Mason won the Colonial by two games and they have a 26 RPI. They're safely in. No need for discussion.
ReplyDeletePenn State's 3-8 road record and two home losses to non-tounrament teams (Maryland and Maine) are their biggest issues right now.
ReplyDeleteYes Penn state is 3-8 on the road but they can play with any one on the road they lost by 3 at Ohio state and a bad call prevented them from winning at purdue but also the ncaat is played on a neutral court where psu is 2-0 I think it Isn't that Penn state can't play away from home and yes they have those two bad losses but USC has way more and way worse same with bama
ReplyDeleteGeorgetown moved up the end of the 5 line because of Wright's impending return and because we didn't like any of the 6s to move up. Even with an A-10 tourney title, we think Temple still could end up a 6.
ReplyDeleteCan someone give me an in-depth explanation of why to cheer for Memphis as a bubble team fan? It seems like only the winner of Memphis-UTEP is getting in anyway.
ReplyDelete@AG FSU was T50 before they lost today. So VT lost two T50 wins by beating them. The wonder that is the RPI.
ReplyDeleteYou have to feel for VT. For them not to play in the NCAAs at this point would be a crime. I know the committee isn't supposed to get emotional about things, but I'd be hard pressed to find a team that's had to deal with more injuries, buzzer beaters and other assorted basketball gods chicanery.
I think Penn State should be in even with a loss today.
ReplyDeleteDang, one tenth of a second (if that) drops FSU 2 seed lines. Why?
ReplyDeleteIt was a re-evaluation of FSU on our part. The 'Noles fnished with a nice ACC record (11-5), but that record masks the fact that they have just one Top 50 win. Their 1-3 record against VT and Clemson combined isn't very pretty either.
ReplyDeleteIs there any chance UConn can jump up to the 2 line? And if both UConn and SDST lose tonight does UConn jump them to the 3 line?
ReplyDeleteAny chance FSU gets left out at this point? Everyone seemed to lock them in a couple weeks ago, but their resume is definitely closer to the bubble than most would admit.
ReplyDeleteWho else wants to see Jimmer take on the whole Penn State squad?! He scored the same amount of points by himself in the first half as Wisconsin did the whole game! I thought it was a halftime score when I got that final score on my phone!
ReplyDeletePenn State doesn't deserve to be in with that win.
Wileydan as a Michigan fan, PSU does deserve to be in the dance. A win is a win, no matter the score. The Big Ten has the most success in the NCAA's because they play DEFENSE. Something the Big East and ACC and Big 12 no nothing about.
ReplyDelete@12:36
ReplyDeleteACC doesn't play defense? FSU and VT would beg to differ.
And 36-33 can't be attributed to defense alone. That's an ugly score anyway you slice it.
Jimmer is awesome...but if he played in a better conference his numbers would not be as good.
ReplyDeleteThe Mountain West is the fourth rated conference this year and San Diego State is top ten in FG% defense. A team THE JIMMER put 40+ up against
ReplyDeleteUConn can get a 2 if they win tonight and if Florida, SDSU, and Texas lose.
ReplyDeleteThe Huskies will be a 3 if SDSU loses or if both they and SDSU lose.
Michigan still a lock even with a loss to Ohio State?
ReplyDeleteYes, we think Michigan is still in even with a loss.
ReplyDeleteThis just in...Jay Bilas does not like the selection process.
ReplyDeleteIn an absolute lose/lose situation, would it do more good for Boston College if VaTech won and maybe boosted themselves into the top 50 RPI to add two more top 50 wins to BC's profile or if they lost and BC can just stand on their profile against VT?
ReplyDeleteSure Penn St. played defense, just no offense. Seriously, there is no reason a game should end 36-33. There is a difference between a good defensive game and a miserable offensive game. Penn State just looked the least impressive. Wisconsin isn't looking that good either. They were blown out by Ohio St. 93-65. Yeah, the Big 10 is so good defensively...
ReplyDeleteBC needs all bubble teams to lose today (Clemson, Va Tech, Alabama, Penn State).
ReplyDeleteSo PSU is still out and UCONN is still a 4? Guess Im not the dipshit after all.....
ReplyDeleteyes you are Dustin. B101s seeds seem just about right.
ReplyDeleteDustin, why so down on Washington?
ReplyDelete"The Big Ten has the most success in the NCAA's because they play DEFENSE. Something the Big East and ACC and Big 12 no nothing about."
ReplyDeleteYep, not being able to play D is why the ACC and Big XII have won the last 3 national titles. And we all know what a success the Big Ten has been. Who could forget the incredible one national championship in the past 23 years?
So Im a dipshit for not being better than the person who I admitted was already better? Got it.
ReplyDeleteThats because the big 10 is the most over rated conference every single year. Mich PSU and Ill would struggle in any other conference and I think Wisc might finish middle of the pack.
ReplyDeleteMemphis!!
ReplyDeleteDoes UTEP have even an outside chance at a bid?
ReplyDeleteNo. UTEP's going to the NIT.
ReplyDeleteThat Memphis win was huge for the Georgias and PSUs of the world. UTEP probably wont make it because the committee recognizes that these were home games, and they aren't going to get much of a boost by reaching the Finals.
ReplyDeleteDoes this sound right Penn state wins they're in lose and they are squarely on the bubble?
ReplyDeleteB101 are washington's numbers better then UCLA's now?
ReplyDeleteStony Brook wants to play in a First Four game.
ReplyDeleteKentucky is destroying Alabama.
Washington has a better RPI, better record vs top 50, top 100, and top 150, and swept UCLA, but UCLA has wins vs BYU and St Johns.
ReplyDeleteI dont know what weighs more?
Heartbreaker for Stony Brook; congrats to Boston U.
ReplyDeleteb101
ReplyDeleteI am no expert but i don't see how st marys can get in..
Do they really have the resume?
St. Mary's will be much debated over the next day. They will be a tough call, but you have to figure that one of the 4 mid-major teams on the bubble (VCU, SMC, UAB, and Missouri State) will get a bid. We just like St. Mary's ahead of that group.
ReplyDeleteAlabama sure looks like an NIT team...
ReplyDeleteI'm completely on board with the St. Mary's hate. Their third-best win is against Long Beach State. And the San Diego loss is just HORRENDOUS. With only 1 top-50 win (at home) and only 3 top-100 wins, that should not be enough imo.
ReplyDeleteAlabama cannot afford to get blown out, but how are they not ahead of Georgia at this point? That alone may get them a bid.
ReplyDeleteTide is getting rolled
ReplyDeleteThe Georgia wins gave them life (and possibly knocked out Georgia), but I think Bama is done getting crushed here. People tend to overrate recent results compared to the overall view the committee takes and I think their OOC results will still kill them. See also, Colorado.
ReplyDeleteSurprised to see you have Texas A&M behind teams like Arizona (only 2 top-50 wins and a terrible loss), Cincinnati (worse RPI and SOS), and Temple (loss to A&M at neutral site, only 2 top 50 wins and a bad loss).
ReplyDeleteWhat am I missing?
A&M either has better numbers, more good wins, fewer bad losses, or straight up beat the team.
Alabama is just flat-out getting pissed on by Kentucky right now. I don't think the committee likes 30-point beatdowns.
ReplyDeleteYeah, Dustin. Only Lunardi, Glockner and Palm all have UConn a 3 and PSU in.
ReplyDeleteKnow your dipshit role.
"Yeah, Dustin. Only Lunardi, Glockner and Palm all have UConn a 3 and PSU in.
ReplyDeleteKnow your dipshit role"
Yet B101 who is better than all of them has them in the same spot I do. Hmmmmmmm.
What would likely knock St. Mary's out of the bracket would be a Boise win over Utah State tonight.
ReplyDeleteAlabama certainly didn't pass the eye test today. Kentucky called the dogs off too.
ReplyDeleteB101, any chance that Belmont can be a 12 seed, or are they for sure a 13?
ReplyDeleteWhat a choke by Clemson tie game
ReplyDeleteClemson is blowing it.
ReplyDeleteIs Alabama in or out of your beaker now b101?
ReplyDeleteWatching this OSU/UofM game and I'm not even a fan of either team...Sullinger seems to be getting every call he wants, hopefully the officiating in the tournament isn't all one way
ReplyDeleteYes, Belmont has a shot at a 12.
ReplyDeleteWhy do you like Saint Mary's over UAB?
ReplyDeleteRPI-
UAB: #31
Saint Mary's: #44
SOS-
UAB: #79
Saint Mary's: #99
vs. RPI Top 100-
UAB: 10-7
Saint Mary's: 3-6
vs. RPI Top 50-
UAB: 0-4
Saint Mary's: 1-4
RPI 101+ losses-
UAB: 1 (@ #160 Arizona State)
Saint Mary's: 2 (@ #104 Portland, @ #320 San Diego)
Record-
UAB: 22-8 (12-5 CUSA)
Saint Mary's: 23-8 (12-4 WCC)
Clemson's a joke. That 2 minute offense left in the game was putrid. Just give UNC the game, guys.
ReplyDeleteOh, and conference RPI (both were regular-season conference champs)-
ReplyDeleteC-USA: #8
WCC: #14
You kind of left off the part about St. Mary's beating St. John's and Gonzaga (at Gonzaga). What does UAB have to compare to that?
ReplyDeleteUAB has a better logo?
ReplyDeleteYeah, UAB's logo is a 3 seed. St. Mary's logo is in the First Four.
ReplyDeleteSt. John's is included in vs. Top 50.
ReplyDeleteNumbers-wise, UAB's road win @ #56 Marshall compares to @ #58 Gonzaga.
I am just amazed that a team that goes 3-6 against the 100 best teams in the nation can get an at-large.
Welcome to life in a 68-team field.
ReplyDeleteHarrison Barnes - wrecking the bubble all by himself...
ReplyDeleteMake it 0-6 against the Top 50 for Clemson.
ReplyDelete(That's not good.)
b101--As a faithful (and beaten-down) VT fan for many years, with Bama getting crushed and Memphis taking care of business, is there any scenario where VT doesn't get in even if we lose to Duke?
ReplyDeleteAlso, and this might sound strange, but do you think the committee has a sympathy vote? In other words, if VT/whoever have equal resumes, is it possible they go with sympathy for VT's past woes. I know it's lame, but I'll take a sympathy vote at this point to get those seniors in the dance one time. I know the committee would never admit it, but just curious.
Forget a sympathy vote. Just play a close game against Duke and you should be fine.
ReplyDeleteWith the loss to OSU and what has unfolded so far today, does it look like Michigan will be on the 10 or 11 line when it's all said and done?
ReplyDeleteI'll take UAB tomorrow. We'll see how it goes.
ReplyDeleteImpossible to tell yet. One or the other.
ReplyDeleteclemson's in...guarantee they want leave the 4th place ACC team out with a 9-1 record against RPI 51-100, 9-7 in the ACC, and 4 -0 record against BC, VT, and FSU.
ReplyDelete95% chance they're in.
Belmont will NOT recieve a 12. That's ludicrous. The ACC should get 5, including both Clemson and VT. Any chance MSU, with a big 10 tourney win, gets the Syracuse circa-Mcnamara 5 seed?
ReplyDeleteMichigan is OUT.
ReplyDeleteRepeat: Clemson is 0-6 vs. the Top 50.
ReplyDeleteMichigan State's not gettng a 5. If they win the BTT, they would probably max out as a 7/8.
ReplyDelete3 wins over solid tourney teams, 2 wins over teams in your last 4 out... You're splitting hairs there using the top 50.
ReplyDeleteClemson's record against RPI 1-50 is arbitrary when they have 4 wins against 50-64.
ReplyDeleteyou are splitting hairs and i DARE you to leave them out of your field.
Clemson should be cheering for VT - win here might put them in the T50 of the RPI. Boston College dropping a ton due to the loss really hurt them, same as VT beating FSU and knocking them out of the T50. The RPI!
ReplyDeleteI'll bet someone 50 bucks anonymous 4:02 has the same IP as Will.
ReplyDeleteShould Illinois be worried? 6-10 in last 16 games. I'm not sure everyone is focusing on the right Big 10 teams.
ReplyDeleteRE: Clemson -- Don't forget about their iffy losses (South Carolina, Virginia, NC ST.). No top 50 wins with those bad L's could be enough to leave them out.
ReplyDeleteAlso, although I realize overall record doesn't tell the whole story, it IS interesting that Alabama, UGA, Clemson, and VA Tech (if they lose to Duke) are all 21-11.
No, they don't.
ReplyDeleteb101
ReplyDeleteWould it shock you to see all the bracketologists miss 3-5 teams this year?
Seems to me there is 10 close teams where as usually there are 5-6? agree?
I think Illinois has no reason to worry...they are pretty comfortably a 10 seed
ReplyDeleteBubble fans daily cheering schedule:
ReplyDeleteVa Tech vs. Duke: Go Blue Devils!
Michigan State vs. Penn State: Go Spartans!
Washington vs. Arizona: Go Wildcats!
Boise State vs. Utah State: Go Aggies!
Clemson should be nowhere near the field if Georgia doesn't get in. Side by side resume of those 2 favors Georgia. Better RPI, SOS, more top 50 wins and zero bad losses. Put Georgia in already!!! Please!
ReplyDeleteI am guessing even if PSU wins again. The bar for them will reset to; now they have to beat OSU. If they had the opportunity to play Iowa or Indiana twice in the regular season, there would be no discusion, they'd be in.
ReplyDeleteWE ARE......PENN STATE
ReplyDeleteIf PSU wins, I doubt they even play in the First 4 games.
ReplyDeleteAs for Utah State.. if they lose I think the committee just replaces them with Saint Mary's.
I dont see how Clemson gets in and Georgia doesnt. Clemson is out especially if PSU wins.
ReplyDeleteDamn, Penn State looks damn good!
ReplyDeleteTerrible officiating in the Duke game - shocking.
Looks like Richmond is heading to the A10 Finals.
Michigan State isn't playing very well today. I think Penn State probably needs to beat Ohio State tomorrow to get in.
ReplyDeletejust kidding
ReplyDeletewith Temple and Vandy losing today plus Chris Wright/JT3 confirming he will play. Georgetown comfortable as a 5, you think?
ReplyDeleteCBS guys ripping bracketology process not realizing SOS for Penn St is higher because they played Iowa and Indiana only once for conference play.
ReplyDeleteYes, Georgetown looks like a 5. And Penn State is going to crush them.
ReplyDeleteIvy game is better then this stupid big10 game.
ReplyDeleteFight by Ivy guys is pretty amazing. Great game
ReplyDeletethis IVY game is AMAZING. B101, pls evaluate Harvards chances if they lose in a close one. Their RPI is 32 and they have beaten BC and Colorado and barely lost to UConn and Michigan.
ReplyDeleteHopefully extra bball in the ivy, its been great so far.
ReplyDeleteWow!!!
ReplyDeletePrinceton with a buzzer beater!
ReplyDeleteHave to consider Harvard for the bubble.
UConn beat Harvard by 30.
ReplyDeleteHarvard had their shot at the tourny and they failed. If you cant win a play-in game vs Princeton I dont feel bad if you get left out.
ReplyDeleteHarvard has a decent resume but will not make NCAA's. They deserve an NIT bid tho and hopefully they take that oppurtunity and prove themselves in NIT.
ReplyDeleteTeams that will be sweating tommorow
ReplyDeleteUSC
UAB
MICHIGAN
BAMA
GEORGIA
COLO
Virginia Tech and Penn State are now safely in. I think there's 3 bids left.
ReplyDeleteLast 3 in: Georgia, Saint Mary's, Clemson
Last 5 out: Alabama, VCU, Boston College, Missouri State, Harvard
PENN STATE BABY!
ReplyDeleteYet again Michigan will not be sweating tomorrow. They lost by 8 to the number one team in the nation
ReplyDeleteMichigan is not sweating anything
ReplyDeleteWouldnt have even considered this a week ago, but Big Ten looks like its got seven teams with lock or at least near lock status.
ReplyDeleteKU vs. Texas! Oh yeah get ready for this one.
ReplyDeleteMusberger said horns get the 1 seed if they beat ku and ku gets a 2 hahaha.
ReplyDeleteAll CBS, ESPN and FSN commentators should be banned from talking about whos in and out. They just dont understand numbers.
ReplyDeleteEvery bubble team in the country is going to be watching the Dayton-Richmond game tomorrow. Dayton could very well kill someone's shot.
ReplyDeleteWell, I spoke yesterday how there were 3 teams fighting for 2 spots - PSU/Bama/UGA.
ReplyDeleteToday PSU solidfied their spot. Now it is a tossup between Bama and UGA for the last spot.
All other teams are clearly in or out:
Michgan: IN
Virginia Tech: IN
Clemson: IN
Boston COllege: out
Missouri St. : Out
VCU: Out
St Marys: In
Penn State: In
Michigan St: In
Colorado: In
Harvard: Out
USC: Out
UAB: Out
UTEP: Out
THese all seem rather clear to me. the only question is who gets in ALABAMA or GEORGIA? there is only room for one.
Last 4 in: Colorado, Clemson, St Mary's, Alabama. Everybody above that is safe.
ReplyDeleteGeorgia, UAB, VCU are the only other teams I think that have a chance.
Boise St and Dayton can still both steal spots away from the bubble.
Agreed anon @ 6:20
ReplyDeleteMy favorite bit of MSM ignorance today: 8 bubble teams listed on the screen (USC, VCU, Clemson, VT, etc). Clark Kellogg is asked which of these teams he has in. His answer? "Well, uh... I think you have to put all these teams in."
Somebody needs to inform these people the field hasn't expaneded to 96... yet. Seems like every time they start talking about the last 4 in/out they think all the teams should be in.
Ya they also dont want to be the jerk who says that this team or this team should be out. Anyway these stations should all hire someone to tell them what the tourney situation is like. ESPN at least has Luinardi while although he is not great he's still way better then letting the commentators talk for themselves.
ReplyDeleteDuke wins, they are the last 1, they lose, it's ND, right?
ReplyDeleteGoing to go ahead and repeat that I think FSU is the team that might surprise everyone by being supposedly off the bubble and not making it in.
ReplyDeleteLosing record against the T100 (6-9), one win against Duke (only T50 win), RPI dropped below 50, and the best win in the last month is Miami at home.
Everyone seemed to go ahead and ignore them after they beat Duke and got to 11 ACC wins w/o Singleton playing. But getting 11 ACC wins in today's ACC isn't anything special.
anon @6:32
ReplyDeleteFor the most part I think your right its just hard to say both Clemson and St.Marys are clearly in. I think if Utah State loses tonight St.Marys drops out over the other SEC teams. I think only one of those two SEC teams will get in, but find it hard to believe that they both will get left out. Also I still think UAB has a slight chance.
Miami at home is better than NCSU on the road?
ReplyDeleteFSU is a 10-loss team in a big conference who
ReplyDeleteA. Played a tough OOC schedule (3 games vs tourney teams, 1 against a 1 seed, one against a 2 seed + Baylor), didn't rack up a ton of bad losses, dominated their conference competition(11-5), has 3 wins over current tourney teams, and has a signature win. They may not look extremely impressive, but of all of the reasons you can look at the other teams and say "Yeah, they're nice but...", you can't with FSU. Their best guy got hurt, and they kept playing as well as before, and he is reportedly practicing just fine, and will be back for the tourney. No way they get left out.
Florida St is in. Worst case scenario they are a 12 seed. I'd be surprised if they were even put in the last 4 in games.
ReplyDeleteI think FSU is the "WHAT!!!" 9 seed.
ReplyDeleteAssuming that Utah State, Richmond and Ohio St. win in the remainder of the games heres how I have it.
ReplyDeleteLast 4 with bye:
Michigan
Colorado
Michigan State
Virginia Tech
Last 4 in:
Penn State
St.Marys
Alabama
Clemson
First 4 out:
UAB
Georgia
Boston College
USC
Wising it was still the begining of January: My Minnesota Gophers
No way is FSU a 9. They have one win over a team that's solidly in. Then wins over Clemson, BC and Baylor, that's pretty much it. 11-5 in the ACC is still good enough to get them in, and Auburn is their only bad loss. They'll be a 10 at best, but probably an 11, maybe a 12.
ReplyDeleteI think FSU is still out in front of the big ten wave of teams and in front of other ACC teams. Gonna look at it all later and post bracket tonight on here.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know where we can submit a bracket tommorrow before Selection Sunday?
Isn't PSU in now? The committee isn't going to want to do two brackets, one if they win and another one if they lose.
ReplyDeleteTeam A is 19-12; SOS of 20; 9-9 and tied for 4th in conference; RPI of 47; 6-10 vs. RPI top 50; four of 12 losses were to teams with RPIs 1 and 2; eight of 12 losses were to teams with RPIs of 17 or lower; 8-4 in last 12 games with two of those losses to team ranked number one in polls; one loss by two on the road to team it beat yesterday on neutral court; one loss by one at home on buzzer beater to team wiht RPI of 16.
ReplyDeleteTeam B is 21-5; SOS of 181; 12-2 and tied for first in conference; RPI of 32; 1-5 vs. RPI top 50, including loss on the road to Team A; 16 wins vs. RPI of 150 or above; 9-3 in last 12 games with two of those losses to team with 48 RPI.
Team A should be sweating tomorrow just because it has no ”signature wins” and Team B should get in over Team A just because its head coach used to coach Team A and never took Team A to the NCAA Tournament?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D58LpHBnvsI
...and now Greg Anthony is talking 1 seed for Florida. Unbelievable
ReplyDeletefirst, cbs announcers are DUMB. i agree with previous posts. the reason why psu SOS is 5 is cause they played OSU twice, Purdue twice, and wisconsin three times and on the flip indiana once+tourney and iowa once.
ReplyDeleteMSU you ask? OSU once, Purdue 3x, and Wisc 2x. MSU played the #1 team in the country once. as in...one time. and on the flip indiana 1x and iowa 2x + tourney!!!!
and with the B10 final it will be PSU playing the number 1 team 3 times....
but can anyone explain why PSU is still the low team below Michigan, MSU, and Illinois? How are we Lunardi's last 4 in???? At least vs. MSU we're 2-1 H2H and will be higher in RPI and pretty even in top 50/top 100. I'm confused!
@Coug: Non-conference play. Penn St beat nobody and lost to 3 games to teams that aren't going to the tournament. They might be ahead of MSU, but are still behind UM and Illinois. PSU is definitely in the field, though.
ReplyDeleteFSU is probably behind the Big 10 teams. They have one top 50 win, compared to 5 for PSU, 6 for MSU, and 7 for Michigan.
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ReplyDeleteSingleton was brought out for show in the ACCT, but didn't play. Who knows if he'll be back. And their SOS? It's 80 even with a nice OOC schedule. The ACC was not good this year - wins over the bottom mean little to nothing. The committee has shown before that it pretty much ignores conference records and only looks at who you beat, so I don't think 11-5 ACC means anything.
ReplyDeleteI'd put FSU below VT and maybe Clemson on the ACC's bubble list, though the Duke win probably puts them above Clemson.
Last update before tonights games end.
ReplyDelete1's: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke
2's: Notre Dame, Texas, North Carolina, BYU
3's: Florida, Syracuse, Purdue, Louisville
4's: San Diego State, Connecticut, Kentucky, Wisconsin
5's: Cincinnati, Georgetown, UNLV, St. John’s
6's: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, West Virginia
7's: Arizona, Xavier, Missouri, Temple
8's: Old Dominion, Marquette, Utah State, Florida State
9's: George Mason, Villanova, Illinois, UCLA
10's: Tennessee, Michigan, Gonzaga, Richmond
11's: Michigan State, Washington, Colorado, Clemson
12's: (Penn State vs Virginia Tech), Butler, (St. Mary’s vs Alabama), Memphis
13's: Princeton, Belmont, Oakland, Bucknell
14's: Kent St, Morehead St, Long Island, Indiana St,
15's: Long Beach St, St Peter’s, Northern Colorado, Wofford
16's: Boston, UNC-Asheville, (Hampton vs UTSA), (UALR vs Alabama St)
AVOID FIRST FOUR GAME: Richmond, Washington, Colorado, Clemson
LAST FOUR IN: Penn State, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s, Alabama
FIRST FOUR OUT: Georgia, UAB, Boston College, USC
NEXT FOUR OUT: VCU, UTEP, New Mexico, Missouri State
Here's how I see the bubble:
ReplyDeleteLast Four In:
Penn State
St. Mary's
Clemson
Alabama
First Four Out:
Georgia
USC
Boston College
UAB
Still Alive:
Missouri State
VCU
New Mexico
I think 1 (not both, and not neither) of Alabama/Georgia is going to get in, and I have yet to see a persuasive argument for Georgia being that team since Alabama just beat them twice in the past week. We shall see though, as when it comes to the last team in, my guess is as good as Bracketology101's or anyone else's.
Correctly guessing the last team in is almost entirely luck. Correctly seeding the 4-11 seeds is the skill that separates the best bracketologists from everyone else. Tomorrow should be quite a fun day, and I really hope this year's NCAA tournament is one for the ages.
and the other thing i dont understand is how its commented how bad PSU loss some games but never comment how close some other losses were (OSU, Purdue, and Michigan) were less than 3 pts....
ReplyDeleteI believe a loss is a loss regardless of score but if you're gonna mention score diff as a negative you have to give credit for close losses too....and I think an argument could be made for PSU higher than MICH and ILL too. I just dont see PSU as the #12 play-in but illinois as far as a #10. the four tied 4th place teams are much closer and but PSU is in the finals and went through 1 of those teams to get there and a top 25 wisc (albeit ugly-ly)
Ya more I look at Florida State the more scared I get for them.
ReplyDelete54 RPI
one quality win
only one decent road win
and they lost to Auburn.... I mean really Auburn???
Comparasin to other ACC bubbles
1-1 with Clemson
1-2 wih Va Tech
1-0 with BC
I might agree that they are going behind the big ten flock of teams
And I don't even know why pointing to their OOC schedule even helps. They played Florida (L), Ohio State (L), Butler (L), and Baylor (W). Besides that, two mediocre teams, and a bunch of bad teams, one of which they lost to (Auburn).
ReplyDeleteNothing about their record suggests a team that's solidly in.
Rainmaker might as well of just copied and pasted my post above... Anyway like the way your thinkin.
ReplyDelete"and I think an argument could be made for PSU higher than MICH "
ReplyDeletePlease. The same UM team that beat PSU twice should be leapfrogged despite about 10 places minimum difference between the two when PSU beat a team UM also beat twice?
PSU has a good SOS but let's not forget how many games they've lost this year and to who. They've scraped their way in to the tournament, but they'll be lucky to avoid a play-in game.
PSU has to be ahead of MSU in the Big Ten pecking order now, right? They won 2/3, have a better RPI, and now a better conference record. Also, glad to see other equally as outraged with Steve Kerr and the rest of the CBS college basketball "experts" not understanding something as simple as SOS. Also they completely forgot to mention that MSU played 2 teams with RPIs or 300+, which absolutely kills the SOS.
ReplyDeleteI'm a PSU fan and I don't think there's any way you can put PSU ahead of UM unless they beat OSU tomorrow because of those 2 H2H losses. I could see an argument for PSU to be ahead of Illinois, though.
ReplyDelete@7:42 Penn state has the same amount of losses that Michigan has so it's kinda funny that you say look at how many losses and also Penn state best wiscy twice who has Michigan beat And don't even mention the close loss to Wisconsion because Penn state was a bad call away from beating purdue on the road and three points away from winning at ohio state
ReplyDeleteThe more I think about it, the more I feel Alabama is out. I think we are underestimating the horrible non-conference schedule (ranked 296) and their performance AGAINST that non-conf. schedule (only 8-6). They finished 12-4 in conf. play (13-5 if you count the conf. tourney) but it was in the weaker division of the SEC (got to play Auburn and LSU twice).
ReplyDeleteI think bracketologists tend to incorrectly weight the end of season performances. Remember Va Tech from last year -- the committee head pointed directly to their non-conference SOS as a reason they were left out.
And for the record, Colorado's Non-Conf. SOS is ranked 329 -- just sayin'.
Penn State lost to Maine. That is a brutal loss.
ReplyDeleteOBVIOUSLY 11-5 in the ACC means nothing. That's why we're talking about them as a 9-12 seed, and not a 4. They are a very good team capable of beating every team in the country at home, and more than capable of losing to good teams on the road. They still, however, won 4 conference road games. No way they get left out.
ReplyDeleteYes, Penn State lost to Maine at home, and had those 3 OOC losses which were bad, that's why we're discussing if they're a play-in team or not. However, they finished tied for 4th with 3 other teams and had the hardest in-conference schedule in the Big Ten. If you included the tournament results so far, they have the best 4th best record in the Big Ten. I just don't see how they're not ahead of either MSU or Illinois.
ReplyDeleteMAC OT!!
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know where to go on the web to get teams non-conference SOS rankings? I can't seem to find it anywhere? Thanks in advance!
ReplyDeleteThere is no doubt Penn State is in:
ReplyDelete5 Top 50 Wins
Only 3 games played vs the RPI 200 and worse (many bubble contenders have many more games vs the dregs of the NCAA to pad win totals)
Did not have the benefit to play Iowa or Indiana twice and still finished tied with MSU/Illinois/Michigan in conference.
Also, everyone brings up Maine (RPI 213). Lets not forget Illinois lost to RPI #295 UI-Chicago, which, although was at a neutral site in Chicago was dominated by Illini fans if you saw it on TV.
Also, what do Michigan, MSU, and Illinois have in common? They all lost to a Big Ten Bottom feeder (Indiana or Iowa). Penn State did not lose to either.
I'm not saying the other 3 shouldn't be in, but Penn State is right there with them.
Another amusing point was the guys on CBS bringing up Clemson...they have ZERO Top 50 wins and have played 6 games vs teams with RPIs over 200.
I think the reason the big ten guys are on the bubble is the likelihood that they'll all finish the year with a baker's dozen losses...
ReplyDelete@royal8085
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html
That should have most of that info.
Royal,
ReplyDeleteTo answer your ? about the non-conf sos, if you go to ESPN's bracketology page (that shows Lunardi's bracket) then click on a team, their page has all the info you need (not sure how current it is though)
We don't get all the Clemson love, either. No Top 50 wins, no wins over Duke or UNC, three losses to the RPI 100-200, 3-7 true road record.
ReplyDeleteEven on this bubble, those numbers aren't pretty.
3 cheers for arbitrary endpoints... They have 5 wins over the top 61.
ReplyDeleteIf Penn State doesn't get in, I'm boycotting the tournament. That would be 2 screwjobs in 3 years.
ReplyDeleteFIGHT FIGHT in the mac final!
ReplyDeleteit all depends on how you spin the numbers...
ReplyDeleteclemson is 9-3 against RPI 5-65. that is pretty stinking impressive.
they will not be left out. vt or alabama is out before them.
Oh color me shocked..another OT game.
ReplyDeleteYeah, if we start excluding 14-loss teams with no signature wins and 11-9 conference records, paired with losses to Mississippi, Maryland, and Maine...
ReplyDelete**sorry, clemson in 10-4 against RPI 6-95.
ReplyDeletePac10 refs are and embarrassment
ReplyDelete