Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.Thursday's Games
After a night of upsets (Kentucky, BC), buzzer beaters (Wisconsin), bubbles burst (Nebraska, UTEP, VCU), and dance cards punched (Cincinnati), Thursday night is setting up to be much less exciting.
Easily the biggest bubble battle of the night is out West, with Gonzaga visiting St. Mary's. The Gaels looked like a sure thing just two weeks ago, but since then they have dropped games to lowly San Diego and to fellow mid-major power Utah State. Their OOC win over St. John's keeps looking better and better, but other than that, there isn't too much else on their resume. A win tonight would give them the WCC regular season title, which should be enough for a bid. Gonzaga's at-large hopes have been helped by St. Mary's recent struggles, and a win for them tonight will likely lead to a share of the conference title. That very well could be their only hope for an at-large, since they will end up with double-digit losses and an RPI in the mid-70s.
Back East, the biggest games are in the Big East with West Virginia playing at Pittsburgh and Marquette playing at UConn. The Huskies will be without Jim Calhoun on the sidelines as they face a Golden Eagles team looking to solidify their spot in the bracket. Marquette has three Top 25 wins, which is more than any other bubble team can claim, but those wins all have come at home. A win at UConn would pretty much stamp their ticket and would make 11 Big East bids almost a certainty. West Virginia, meanwhile, will be looking to upset another Top 10 team after their huge home win over Notre Dame this past weekend, while Pitt will be looking to bounce back from their loss to the Red Storm. The Mountaineers need a strong finish to end up in the top eight of the Big East standings and avoid having to play on the first day of the Big East tourney.
Elsewhere in Mid-Majorville, Old Dominion visits James Madison and Milwaukee takes on Cleveland State. The Monarchs likely just need to win their final two regular season games to be an absolute lock heading into the CAA tourney. Cleveland State likely destroyed their chances for an at large in losing their BracketBuster game to ODU over the weekend, and if they want to stay in the discussion, they must win their last two and win the Horizon regular season conference title. That title is also important because it would give them home court advantage throughout the conference tourney.
Also keep an eye on: Georgia at Florida, Penn State at Northwestern, Northeastern at George Mason, Arizona State at UCLA, Arizona at USC
No coverage on the Georgia-Florida game??
ReplyDeleteWhy no mention of penn state @ northwestern not even in the others to keep an eye on?
ReplyDeletemaryland vs. unc; terps win that one and we are back in
ReplyDeleteHow bad was the Georgetown loss at home? They drop to the 4 line?
ReplyDeleteGeorgetown will likely be a 4 next week.
ReplyDeleteThat's a big if for Maryland.
ReplyDeleteBoth Georgia and Florida are safe at this point, so their match-up only gets "keep an eye on" treatment.
ReplyDeletePenn State-Northwestern is on the "keep an eye on" list now (it was left off by accident before). The Nittany Lions still have a chance at an at-large, but it's kind of a long shot. They need to win tonight, beat Ohio State this weekend, and then win at Minnesota next week to get a bid. Given their road record this season (they're 1-8), we're not so sure they'll get past the Wildcats tonight.
BYU Fan here. I know you are anticipating SDSU beating BYU at home on Saturday...I'm OK with that (you have to have an opinion, right?)
ReplyDeleteBut I would like to see some comment about what might happen if BYU can pull out a W @ SDSU.
If BYU beats SDSU and wins the MWC tournament they could get a 1 seed. At worst, they'll be a 2.
ReplyDeletedid you happen to see how Garyland dismantled FSU....Stoglin is playing like an upperclassman...and Gary owns Roy no matter where the game is.
ReplyDeleteWinning at North Carolina is a different animal than beating Florida State at home. The Terps will be very alive in the at-large hunt if they can beat the Heels, but we have to see it to believe it.
ReplyDeleteDoes Cincinnati jump to the 7 line after winning @Georgetown?
ReplyDeleteI find it interesting that people think Nebraskas bubble has burst... they lost a close game to a team that will make the tourney. They still have 3 games left that are all winnable... Going 3-0 adds 2 more road wins and win over a ranked Mizzou... that puts them @ 21-9 and 9-7 in the BIG12...to me that spells in especially if they win the BIG 12 tourney opening rd... no way a 22 win power conference team gets left out when the bubble is so weak this year..
ReplyDeleteduke, ohio st and pitt now are near locks as 1 seeds. the last 1 seed will go to either kansas, texas, sd st or byu, with kansas the front runner. sd st and byu need kansas and texas to get tossed early from the B12T and 1 will be eliminated after their rematch.
ReplyDeleteLet's say Penn State wins 2 of their final 3...can they do something in the Big Ten tournament to get in?
ReplyDeleteYeah Mike, they can win it.
ReplyDeleteIs Kentucky a bubble team? They can't beat *anyone* on the road, except a South Carolina team that got blown out at home by Auburn.
ReplyDeleteCincinnati would be a 7 if we did a bracket today.
ReplyDeleteIf Penn State wins two of three, they'll have to make at least the Big Ten semis (maybe the final) to get an at-large.
Kentucky's a lock.
in Roy Williams career in Carolina Blue he has a career record of 6-5 against Garyland. I would hardly say that this is like going in to Cameron Indoor. Being that as it may, when MD is backed into a corner the Terps usually play well. When they had Vasquez, he basically won the game on his own against UNC...and then there was the absolute destruction of Kansas in the Final Four with Dixon, Blake and Baxter. Roy is the better recruiter....Gary is the better coach. Gary gets more done with less than Roy...history has proved it
ReplyDeleteWhat has Arizona done to be listed so highly by everyone? They've got an rpi 200+ loss on their resume!!!!!! Compare them to a team like Texas A&M. Neither team has that "Signature Win" but A&M has 3 better wins that Zona's best (Temple, Mizzou, Kansas St.) oh, and A&M beat Washington too, which is Zona's best win.
ReplyDeleteMD has won 4 of 5 vs UNC. So basically MD has won 4 of against Roy at UNC with Roys players...
ReplyDeleteJerry Palm is the worst bracketologist. Did he graduate from a Big 10 school or something? Thank God for Lunardi and this blog.
ReplyDeleteLunardi is worse, he has Virginia Tech as a 10 seed, and I'm a Tech fan. He also has Kansas State as a 9, and VCU in.
ReplyDeleteArizona has good RPI, good poll ranking, no RPI top 25 wins, bad loss to #226 Oregon St. Tell me they cannot be a top 4 seed.
ReplyDeletePalm has Florida St., VCU, UAB, Illinois, Memphis, Colo. St., Gonzaga, St. Marys, Minnesota, Boston College, Michigan and Richmond. About 3 to 4 of those teams will make it. He also has Mich St and Kansas St in, but I think they are good enough for the tourney, but still a sixth of his bracket is very iffy. Everyone that has responded to his bracket hates it for the most part. He also took St Johns from a 6 to a 7 after they beat Pitt this week and his lame excuse was so that they didnt get matched up with a big east team or something retarded like that. Jerry Palm needs to find a new profession.
ReplyDelete@ scarshoulders: roy is too stubborn to beat Maryland. You beat MD by slowing the game down and making them run sets from the halfcourt. he refuses to not run and that plays into Maryland's hands almost everytime. There's a reason why the zone gives us fits and why Duke can usually give us problems every now and again. Roy wont slow the game down and we will take it to them. Plus, Roy will refuse to double/triple down on Jordan Williams. Watch Stoglin, Jordan, and Cliff Tucker explode. UNC is the one team Cliff Tucker actually looks like a player
ReplyDelete"There's a reason why the zone gives us fits and why Duke can usually give us problems every now and again."
ReplyDeleteunc hasn't beaten duke in almost 3 years, which is a little more frequent than "every now and again [sic]."
@ MAG: i was referring to MD...i could care less how often unc beats duke...everybody knows MD gives Duke a better game most of the time.
ReplyDeleteWell and Roy knows Gary is 10x the game coach that he is. Gary took Roy’s team with Langford, Miles, Gooden, Hinrich, and Collison to the woodshed with Blake, Dixon, Baxter and Wilcox in the Final Four. Roy just rolls the ball out and Gary actually coaches. I sit in the second row right across from the opposing bench in Comcast and when MD goes on a run the clueless helpless look on Roy’s face is absolutely priceless... He looks like a 4th grader handed a calculus exam.
ReplyDeleteIt's always fun when you can beat Roy at his own game. It's kind of annoying the way Duke does it...because he makes UNC adapt and try to play Duke's game. Granted Duke gets every single call everytime down the court. But the way Maryland beats UNC is very enjoyable. Gary just simply says, go ahead and Run...I'm better at running that you are....it's like that nike commercial. "my better is better than your better".
ReplyDeleteLet me get this straight.
ReplyDeletePSU has to basically win out and as of yesterday, Michigan was almost in?
One team has a top 8 SOS, better RPI and 4 top 50 wins. The other has 2 (one being Harvard). 6 top 50 wins wouldn't be enough, in the WORST bubble of all time? Kidding me, brah.
@mike if you want psu to win a heads up comparison with mich don't get swept by them. as it stands both could win out and still be on the wrong side of the bubble, so no need to get uppity, just take care of business or no room to complain!
ReplyDeleteYep, Maryland took Kansas to the woodshed. That's why it was a 4 point game with less than a minute left and Kansas had the ball. Real woodshed game.
ReplyDeleteI don't get it. Maryland is a decent school, but if it doesn't spit out the most loud mouthed and fact retardant grads, I don't know who does.
@Mike: Besides the hoards of delusional Mich fans that have been flooding the boards the last couple of weeks, NO ONE thought that Mich was almost in. Smae goes for PSU though.
ReplyDeleteAs much as everyone wants to think that the NCAA expanded the field for the benefit of the big conference teams, the committee almost always gives an at large bid to a mid major nobody saw getting in. This year, I think it could be Butler, the Gonzaga/SMC loser, a 2nd Missouri Valley team, or even a 2nd Conference USA team.
ReplyDeleteAs for Penn State, you are a whopping 2 games over .500 you're more likely to miss the NIT than get an at large bid, especially if you lose @ Northwestern tonight.
Mike - you conveniently left out the fact that Penn State lost to Michigan twice.
ReplyDeleteYou also ignored the Nittany Lions' putrid road record (1-8), which is a huge reason why they didn't make out First Eight Out list. We couldn't see Penn State winning both of its remaining road games, or winning one of them AND beating Ohio State at home.
Love the blog just wondering are your beakers based on if the season ended today or what you project the teams to do?
ReplyDeleteIt's about 80% based on what's happened and about 20% based on what we think will happen at this point. It's not done as if the season ended today.
ReplyDeleteGeorgia and Marquette have pretty solid leads @Florida and @UCconn at the half. Do these teams become locks or move close to lock if they both win?
ReplyDeleteBoth of the aforementioned teams lost their leads in spectacular fashion, how does *that* change their status?
ReplyDelete^ Looks like Marquette pulled it off. Big East is getting 11 teams.
ReplyDeleteNorthwestern players must have some hard tests tommorrow they're thinking about because they look horrible out there. 18-2 at home??? It's like over already.
ReplyDeleteScratch that comment above.
ReplyDeleteI guess Cleveland State plans on winning the Horizon League Tournament.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Butler is going to get that coveted double-bye after all. I don't know if Marquette is a lock, but a big win in the brutal Big East always helps. It's hard to see, in a year with such a pathetic bubble, how any of the top 11 teams in the BE are going to be denied, since so few other teams seem to want to be a part of the festivities (see Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Cleveland St.).
ReplyDeletePenn State looks like it wants to at least be considered as a bubble team, for now.
Penn State destroyed Northwestern. Certainly a better team than Minnesota, Michigan, etc. If they beat OSU I can't see how they aren't in.
ReplyDeleteMarquette>>>>>Penn St. from what I saw tonight
ReplyDelete"Looks like Butler is going to get that coveted double-bye after all."
ReplyDelete_____________________________
"You said, what now?"
Going to get? It's going to take a few more breaks for that to happen, and I'm a die hard Butler fan....
I can't even tell you what the tie break will be if Clev St, Mil Wisc and Butler are in a three way tie for first after the final conference games are played....???
I know that Butler beat Clev St in the tie break YET would lose the tie break to Wisc Milw...so how does Wisc Milw factor in with their split with Clev St yet they took the 2 this year vs Butler? ..and Valpo split all their games against the top 3....
...and how does Butler and Wright St have an extra conference game played than all the other Horizon teams (after checking the yahoo standings????)
I must be tired.
@ Anonymous: After tonight's games Butler, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, and Cleveland State are all tied for the Horizon lead at 12-5. Valpo is one game back at 11-6. I don't know what tie-break will be used between the teams, but all Butler needs is to be #2 or #1, which is quite possible.
ReplyDeleteSomeone has written an excellent post about the tiebreaker scenarios in the Horizon league:
http://rushthecourt.net/2011/02/23/checking-in-on-the-horizon-league-26/
It boils down to this--if Butler wins its final game it is going to be the #2 seed at worst, no matter what, because of its sweep of Cleveland State. If Wisconsin-Milwaukee wins its final game, it will be the #1 seed as a result of the sweep of Butler. Either way, if Butler wins, it gets the double-bye. I'm assuming that Butler is going to win its last regular season game, which would give it a huge advantage in the Horizon League tourney and a good chance for the auto-bid.
Oh, and after Gonzaga's win @ St. Mary's a chance at a tie for the regular season WCC looks quite possible for Gonzaga. St. Mary's chose a bad time to slump.
ReplyDelete"Penn St destroyed Northwestern?"
ReplyDeleteNorthwestern played one of their worst games of the year, got down 18-2, and should have won the game (they probably missed 15 wide open 3's). Penn St is just not a very good team.
Penn State is 2-8 on the road beating the two worst teams in the Big Ten. Also were swept by Michigan. If they beat Ohio State then I would consider them to be a legit threat, but to say they are better than Michigan is not true. Michigan has 2 true road wins at MSU and at Clemson.
ReplyDelete@Anon re:MD v Kansas
ReplyDeletehttp://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/college/men/recaps/2002/03/30/maj_kaa/
MD took the lead for good 15 minutes into the game led by as many as 20 and a desperation 3 with 20 seconds left made a game that was never in question a 4 point game. It was a beat down and a late rally kind of made the score respectable. So yeah, I guess you're still bitter about it which kind of proves my point. MD beat down a much more talented team just like they will on Sunday @UNC.
How have Gary's subsequent Final Four appearances gone?
ReplyDelete@Anon re:MD v Kansas
ReplyDeleteOh and Collison got t'd up for calling a timeout Kansas didn't have at the end of that game too. Great coaching Roy. KFTC...
@Anon re Gary's subsequent appearances
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely irrelevant to a Roy Williams vs Gary Williams in a head to head coaching matchup. That was the discussion at hand. Good try though.
ScarShoulders....you are jinxing us this Sunday with all this smack talk. There is not much evidence that MD will win the game on Sunday and I'm a huge Terps fan. I have a feeling it will be a tight game, but UNC will pull away at the end. Same thing we've seen all season, can't finish in the big games.
ReplyDeleteGranted Gary has had success against Roy, but I don't know how much influence that will have on Sunday if UNC shoots the ball well.
About Penn states road record yes they're two and eight but they only lost by three @ Ohio state and only lost at purdue because of a bad call on an out of bounds play that allowed purdue the ball and to make a last second shot Penn st. Should've beaten purdue on the road it isn't their fault that for some reason the NCAA doesn't review balls that go out of bounds in the final two minutes
ReplyDeleteI don't think almost won or kept it close really matters to the selection committee. Otherwise, it would mean they'd take margin of victory into account.
ReplyDelete@Matt
ReplyDeleteKenpom has MD at around a 30% chance to win but I really think this MD team is starting to turn the corner. Add in the Gary v Roy factor which his numbers don't show and you're up to about 40%. Add in the "who needs it more" and UNC could be looking ahead to FSU and Duke and I would say it's a coin flip. I just hope Jordan stays out of foul trouble. That's my biggest concern...
Enough with the crap about penn state's road record! They have the hardest schedule in the Big 10, meaning they don't get to feast of bottom dwellers like Michigan did. They only got Iowa and Indiana once (Iowa at home). So with the teams below them now, they split with Illinois, split MSU, got swept by Michigan, swept Northwestern, up 1 on Minnesota (one game left), and beat Iowa and Indiana the only time they got to play them.
ReplyDeleteIf you don't look at inter-conference schedule, then you're right to make a case for PSU not to be in. But that is something you must look at. They are 5th in the Big 10 right now. Ahead of Minnesota, Michigan St, and (for some reason's everyone's new favorite) Michigan.
As Tom Izzo said, anyone who goes .500 in the Big Ten or Big East (in conference) should go dancing.
Michigan is only michigans favorite choice. They just happen to have a lot of fans that come on the board. Of course Izzo is going to say that because his team is flirting with .500. PSU hasnt done anything impressive this year. Who cares if they split with illinois and are 1 up on Minn...Both should miss the tourny as well. If they beat OSU they can maybe start to creep towards the bubble but that is a big if.
ReplyDeleteif cliff tucker shows up like he always does against UNC...it's going to be Gary doing the fist pump when the buzzer sounds. Roy can't coach his way out of a wet paper bag. And if anyone thinks that Tyler Zeller is going to be able to handle Jordan one on one you are smoking some serious crack. Roy doesn't believe in doubling/tripling down low. sorry, but that is the only way you beat Maryland this year.
ReplyDelete@ Evan
ReplyDelete"As Tom Izzo said, anyone who goes .500 in the Big Ten or Big East (in conference) should go dancing."
Gee, not that Tom Izzo is biased or anything. And if you are fortunate enough to get Iowa twice, Indiana or Northwestern twice and the other one even once, you only need to go 4-9 against everyone else to go .500 (and of those 13, 6 or 7 will be at home). Heck, you do not even need win a single away game other than against the bottom feeders. Oh, wait, that is almost exactly what Michigan State has done so far.
Can't imagine Penn St or Michigan getting in unless they both win out in the regular season and win 1-2 games in the BTT depending on the rest of the bubble.
ReplyDeletePenn state wins vs osu they need to be in wednesday morning.
ReplyDeleteA loss there but a win at Minnesota should put penn state on the first 4 out heading into conference tourney time.
2 losses? Well psu would need a magical run in indianapolis.
It's funny a team like Penn State can be firmly on the bubble going 500 in the Big Ten which really only has one great team in OSU and a team like MD (who pounded them by 20 @ PSU) has to go 10-6 in the ACC which only has one great team in Duke. Oh perception, you cruel twisted temptress.
ReplyDelete@ScarShoulders
ReplyDeleteExcept Purdue and Wisconsin are better teams than UNC and Florida State.
Also, your argument of Maryland "needing the win more" than UNC doesn't really hold any ground. There have been plenty of teams that "needed a win" even just this past week and didn't get it. College players rarely don't try--this isn't the NBA.
@Barry
ReplyDeleteCome on man tell me UVA beating VT wasn't because VT had a let down game after a big win vs MD? Isn;t that basically the same thing?
@Scars I dont why you have the impression PSU is firmly on the bubble? I think the overall perception is that they are firmly off the bubble. MD is considered in better buble position right now then PSU.
ReplyDeleteMaryland's biggest problem is an 83 RPI with an SOS that's virtually identical to Butler's.
ReplyDeleteedgeinducedcohesion....
ReplyDeleteLike you said, Butler has to win...that's a big IF in the Horizon this year where teams are falling flat in pressure games...
GO DAWGS.
arkansas on the bubble missippi on the bubble any chance with in at large bid
ReplyDeleteLet's get that weekend guide already geez
ReplyDeleteLet's get that weekend guide already geez
ReplyDeleteThe comcast center will make an excellent host for the first round of the NIT
ReplyDeleteArkansas and Missippi on the Bubble? Maybe the CBI bubble.
ReplyDeleteweekend guy man lets goooo
ReplyDeleteWhich team has the better resume?
ReplyDeleteVS. Top 10
Team A: 0-3 (1R, 1N, 1H)
Team B: 0-3 (2R, 1H)
VS. 11-25
Team A: 0-1 (R)
Team B: 1-1 (Win: H; Loss: R)
VS. 26-50
Team A: 2-2 (Wins: 1R, 1H; Losses: 2N)
Team B: 3-2 (Wins: 3H; Losses: 2R)
VS. 51-100
Team A: 3-4 (Wins: 3H; Losses: 2R, 2H)
Team B: 4-5 (Wins: 1R, 3H; Losses: 3R, 2 H)
VS. 101-200
Team A: 4-0 (2R, 2H)
Team B: 4-1 (Wins: 1R, 3H; Loss: H)
VS. 200+
Team A: 9-0
Team B: 3-0
Overall R/N record vs. T100
Team A: 1-7 (incl. 3 Neutral court games)
Team B: 1-8 (all true Road games)
Head-to-Head
Team A beat Team B badly @Team B
Without the H2H and B's one awful loss, I'd have to give the nod to Team B for playing a much tougher schedule (if they could swap out one 11-25 game, one 26-50 and one 51-100 for 3 more 200+ opponents, I'm guess they'd have three more wins and 3 fewer losses, and they'd still have played 3 fewer 200+ garbage than Team A.
Does Team B's H2H blowout loss on their home court and a home loss to a 192-rated team that Team A beat by 30 tip the scales the other way? Yeah, probably.
But let's face it - these are two pretty sorry resumes. I, for one, will be rooting for neither to make the dance.
Penn St and Maryland above???
ReplyDeleteYa those resume's are not that good thats why both teams still have a lot of work to do to make tourney.
@Scar
ReplyDeleteYour example further proves my point. VaTech needed that win against a sorry Virginia team and couldn't get it.
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