Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.Thursday's Games
A day after the two best mid-major teams in the country stole the show, the most famous mid-major of them all headlines an interesting night of games.
Gonzaga certainly isn't used to life on the bubble, but that's exactly where they find themselves after a pair of head-scratching losses last week at Santa Clara and at San Francisco. The Zags have quietly compiled a pretty good OOC resume this season (wins over Xavier, Marquette, Oklahoma State, and Baylor), but if they can't beat St. Mary's in Moraga tonight, they'll fall three games behind the Gaels in the WCC standings. Depending on what some other bubble teams do this week, a loss tonight could knock the Zags out of our next bracket, and it would make their remaining games against Memphis and St. Mary's almost must-wins if they want to keep their at-large hopes alive going forward.
Also out West, Arizona plays host to UCLA with the temporary title of "second best team in the Pac-10" on the line. The game's big for both teams, but it's bigger for Arizona. The Wildcats have a nice RPI (24), but they have a poor OOC resume and their only notable win in conference was against a Washington State team that is barely hanging onto a bid. That's why we have UCLA a seed line better than Arizona in this week's bracket (that BYU win is looking nicer by the minute). If UCLA can win this game and then take care of Arizona State this weekend, they could be as high as a 7 on Monday. The Bruins' next four games are at home after this one, including a big OOC match-up against St. John's next weekend.
In the only other must-watch game of the night, Duke plays host to Boston College. The Blue Devils have bounced back nicely from their loss to Florida State with three straight double-digit wins, while BC is just 4-4 over its last eight games. The Eagles are safely in the field right now, but their tournament chances might ultimately depend on how they fare over the next two weeks. They play three of their next four games at home - UNC, VT, and Maryland - with a game at Clemson in between.
Also keep an eye on: Illinois at Indiana, Michigan at Michigan State, Vanderbilt at Mississippi State, Maryland at Virginia, Utah State at San Jose State, Hofstra at VCU, Kent State at Ball State
JIMMER!
ReplyDeleteSo if either BYU or SDSU run the table fron now until Selection Sunday, what are their chances of getting a 1 seed?
ReplyDeleteapproximatly 23.4592%
ReplyDeleteKemba who?
ReplyDeleteWow...talk about living up to the hype.
If either run the table, they'd have a very, very good chance at a 1 seed.
ReplyDeleteI'm not convinced either will run the table. SDSU is not a very good jump shooting team, and it almost cost them vs. IUPUI and Wisconsin-Green Bay earlier this season.
ReplyDeleteAs for BYU, well, let's just say defense isn't their specialty.
Is Cincinnati in pretty good shape to dance? Is 9-9 in the Big East good enough? Although, I think they will finish better.
ReplyDeletedoes maryland have any shot at an invite if they go on a run in the ACC?
ReplyDelete"As for BYU, well, let's just say defense isn't their specialty."
ReplyDeleteYou must not have watched last night's game against SDSU or read any of the many articles written by people who were impressed with BYU's defense last night. Even the sportscasters kept saying BYU's defense is highly underrated. Jackson Emery shut down D. J. Gay last night. 0-9, 2 points.
Also consider:
23 defensive rebounds
8 steals
9 blocks
35.5% shooting by SDSU
I'd say that's pretty good for defense not being their "specialty".
FYI, BYU likes to run a lot. They have one of the highest offensive tempos in the country. Teams that run don't have the gaudy defensive stats that teams like SDSU have. It's all in context. If you watch BYU play, you will see that their defense is actually pretty decent. Last night, it was stellar.
If Providence keeps improving and wins a couple more games, any chance of 12 in the Big East??
ReplyDeleteCincinnati's in pretty good shape right now. Their OOC win against Xavier is looking better and better and they haven't lost any bad games in conference. Their remaining schedule isn't that bad either, so they should be able to get to 10-8 in conference. If they do that, they'll be in very good shape for a bid. A 9-9 finish might be enough, but it depends on who those nine wins are against. Winning at home against West Virginia this weekend would be a huge addition to Cinci's resume and will keep them in the bracket for a while.
ReplyDeleteThe Big East's not getting 12 bids.
ReplyDelete^ unless a suprise team wins the conference tourney(LOOPHOLE) haha
ReplyDeleteIf Maryland can win its next three games (at Virginia tonight, at Georgia Tech on Sunday, and at home against Duke next Wednesday), they'll be in the bracket.
ReplyDeleteLooking long-term, Maryland might need a 10-6 finish in conference to get an at-large. Nine wins, with their poor OOC schedule, would not guarantee a bid.
Any comments or questions on the Mike Huguenin bracket:
ReplyDeletehttp://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1181701
The upset train continues with Michigan beating Michigan State. Where do you have Michigan State seeded as of now.
ReplyDeleteI guess we can have some kind of Big 10 homers like some of the people we heard from last night talk about how deep the Big 10 is now, right? ;-)
ReplyDeleteJust a terrible loss for the Spartans. They'd be on the bottom of the 9 line if we did a new bracket tonight.
ReplyDeleteWhat about George Mason chances?
ReplyDeleteHave a family dilemma of alma maters for the Bubble: my Penn State vs. my wife's George Mason. Who has the better chance of getting in at this point??
can I ask how in the world Boston College is safely in the field?
ReplyDeleteIllinois just lost to Indiana too--that's going to leave a mark. Shouldn't Arizona's win leave it looking a little better in the Pac-10, and UCLA looking a little worse?
ReplyDeleteApologies to Mrs. JP23, but Penn State is in better shape right now than George Mason. George Mason has the third best resume in the Colonial, which isn't going to be enough for a bid. If Penn State can beat Wisconsin this weekend, there's an outside chance they'll be in Monday's bracket.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that BC is fairly safe at this point tells you everything you need to know about how weak the bubble is.
MSU is in some trouble. If they finish 9-9 in conference, they'd only be 16-13 overall and probably need a good B10 tournament showing to make it. Finishing 10-8 isn't going to be easy, especially with Lucious gone from the team. The next two games (Indiana, at Iowa) are must wins.
ReplyDeleteHow does Illinois score 17 points in the second half against Indiana? Terrible...
ReplyDeleteFear the Turtle!! Don't be shocked when the baby terps knock off GT on Sunday night and then tackle Duke @ Comcast Center. Nobody plays K toughter than Gary...
ReplyDeleteI know the bubble will probably be soft this year, but better chance of missing the tournament: Gonzaga or Michigan State?
ReplyDeleteGonzaga. They have 2 brutal losses and no wins that are the quality of Washington, Minnesota or Wisconsin. They are currently mid 70s RPI and have a handful of decent but no really great wins.
ReplyDeleteGonzaga. The Zags ony have two more chances to significantly improve their resume the rest of the way (vs. Memphis and at St. Mary's). Michigan State has six more games left against teams either in the field or on the bubble.
ReplyDeleteIllinois' problem is that, when the shots aren't falling, they can't get to the free throw line. It didn't help that against Indiana, one of the most sloppy, foul-prone defenses in the Big Ten the refs swallowed the whistles in the 2nd half.
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ReplyDelete