Friday, February 25, 2011

B101's Questions For The Weekend

Here's what we're wondering heading into this weekend's games:

Saturday's Games
Who would have ever thought the best game of the year, based on RPI, would be between San Diego State and BYU? When was the last regular season game between two top 4 RPI teams?

If the winner of SDSU-BYU wins out, what's the percent chance they get a 1 seed?

Can Virginia Tech jump into the bracket (for good?) with a win over Duke in Blacksburg?

Can Texas avoid a second straight weekend loss to a Big XII bubble team? (Is Colorado still a bubble team...?)

Will Georgetown (vs. Syracuse) or Villanova (vs. St. John's) go 0-2 at home this week?

Can Arizona complete a season sweep of UCLA? Can Florida do the same to Kentucky?

Will Kansas State cement its spot in the bracket with a home win over Missouri?

Is Baylor done? Is there any chance the Bears upset Texas A&M in Waco to stay in the hunt for an at-large?

Did VCU and BC see their at-large bubbles burst this week? Can they bounce back with wins over James Madison and Virginia?

Does Minnesota still deserve a bid even if they beat Michigan at home? How will the Wolverines play in the wake of Wednesday's brutal buzzer-beating loss to Wisconsin?

Was Wednesday night's beatdown at Maryland a blip on the radar for Florida State, or is it a sign of things to come? Can the 'Noles take care of Miami at home?

Did Alabama really need a last second tip-in to beat Auburn? Can they shake off that awful performance and win at Mississippi?

Is Gonzaga in the bracket for good after their enormous win at St. Mary's? Can they do what the Gaels could not do and win at San Diego?

Will a trip to the WCC final be enough for St. Mary's to get in?

Should the loser of Wichita State at Missouri State start printing NIT tickets?

Is winning a share of the Horizon regular season title enough to get Butler an at-large?

Could Conference USA be more of a mess? If Memphis hands UTEP its third loss of the week, will it be hard to deny the Tigers an at-large?

Can UAB and Southern Miss stay alive in the race for the C-USA regular season title with road wins over Houston and UCF?

Can Vanderbilt and Temple win on the road and avoid 0-2 weeks?

Will Nebraska keep its slim at-large hopes alive with a road win at Iowa State?

Will a win at Air Force be enough to keep Colorado State in the bracket on Monday?

Can Utah State avoid a season sweep at the hands of Idaho?

Sunday's Games
Does Pitt need to win at Louisville to stay on the 1 line?

If Michigan State beats Purdue, is there any chance they don't get an at-large?

If UConn loses at Cincinnati, will the Bearcats have a better seed than the Huskies on Monday?

Can Maryland win at North Carolina? Will one Top 50 win be enough for them to climb into the bracket?

Can West Virginia avoid an upset at Rutgers (and the big seed drop that would follow)?

Marquette picked up a ticket-punching win at UConn this week; they couldn't possibly give their ticket back by losing at home to Providence, right?

Thursday, February 24, 2011

B101's Bracket Banter - Thursday

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

Thursday's Games
After a night of upsets (Kentucky, BC), buzzer beaters (Wisconsin), bubbles burst (Nebraska, UTEP, VCU), and dance cards punched (Cincinnati), Thursday night is setting up to be much less exciting.

Easily the biggest bubble battle of the night is out West, with Gonzaga visiting St. Mary's. The Gaels looked like a sure thing just two weeks ago, but since then they have dropped games to lowly San Diego and to fellow mid-major power Utah State. Their OOC win over St. John's keeps looking better and better, but other than that, there isn't too much else on their resume. A win tonight would give them the WCC regular season title, which should be enough for a bid. Gonzaga's at-large hopes have been helped by St. Mary's recent struggles, and a win for them tonight will likely lead to a share of the conference title. That very well could be their only hope for an at-large, since they will end up with double-digit losses and an RPI in the mid-70s.

Back East, the biggest games are in the Big East with West Virginia playing at Pittsburgh and Marquette playing at UConn. The Huskies will be without Jim Calhoun on the sidelines as they face a Golden Eagles team looking to solidify their spot in the bracket. Marquette has three Top 25 wins, which is more than any other bubble team can claim, but those wins all have come at home. A win at UConn would pretty much stamp their ticket and would make 11 Big East bids almost a certainty. West Virginia, meanwhile, will be looking to upset another Top 10 team after their huge home win over Notre Dame this past weekend, while Pitt will be looking to bounce back from their loss to the Red Storm. The Mountaineers need a strong finish to end up in the top eight of the Big East standings and avoid having to play on the first day of the Big East tourney.

Elsewhere in Mid-Majorville, Old Dominion visits James Madison and Milwaukee takes on Cleveland State. The Monarchs likely just need to win their final two regular season games to be an absolute lock heading into the CAA tourney. Cleveland State likely destroyed their chances for an at large in losing their BracketBuster game to ODU over the weekend, and if they want to stay in the discussion, they must win their last two and win the Horizon regular season conference title. That title is also important because it would give them home court advantage throughout the conference tourney.

Also keep an eye on: Georgia at Florida, Penn State at Northwestern, Northeastern at George Mason, Arizona State at UCLA, Arizona at USC

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

B101's Bracket Banter - Wednesday

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

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Wednesday's Games
It's going to be a busy night in Bubbleville, as two teams on our Last Four In list and four teams on our First Eight Out list are in action.

The biggest bubble battle of the night takes place in Lincoln, where bracket newcomer Nebraska hosts Kansas State. The game is essentially a must-win for the Huskers, who will need to finish 9-7 in conference and win at least one Big XII tournament game to be position for an at-large. It's hard to see them getting to 9-7 if they don't win tonight, considering they have two tricky road games (at Iowa State and at Colorado) and a home game against Missouri left. Kansas State can probably get a bid with an 8-8 finish and one Big XII tourney win, and if they come away victorious tonight, that mark is very attainable.

The other game tonight involving a Last Four In team is Colorado State at BYU. The Rams missed out on a huge opportunity on Saturday by losing at home to UNLV, and as a result, they need to go at least 2-2 down the stretch to have any chance of an at-large. We certainly don't expect them to beat the Jimmers on the road, but we do expect them to win at Air Force on Saturday. A good showing tonight (even in a loss) would give them some much-needed momentum heading into the weekend.

Of the four games involving teams just off the bubble, the most intriguing is Wisconsin at Michigan. The Wolverine faithful have hijacked our poll questions the last couple of weeks in support of their team, but all of those mouse clicks won't mean anything if Michigan doesn't take care of business in its two remaining home games. A 3-0 finish would get Michigan on the right side of the bubble heading into the Big Ten tournament; a 2-1 mark means they'll have to win two Big Ten tourney games to be in the mix.

In other Last Eight Out action, Baylor plays at Missouri, Boston College hosts Miami, and VCU plays at Drexel. The Bears' final four games are brutal, which makes their loss over the weekend to Texas Tech all the more crushing. They'll need two wins down the stretch to stay alive for an at-large. BC has now lost five of its last seven and needs a win over the Hurricanes tonight to stay in the bracket on Monday, and VCU needs to keep winning games period to keep the Colonial's dream of three bids alive. The Rams wrap up their regular season this week with tonight's tricky road game against the Dragons and a home game against James Madison on Saturday. If they finish 2-0 and make the Colonial final, they will be one of the toughest calls to make on Selection Sunday.

The three other must-watch games of the night are Temple at Duke, Cincinnati at Georgetown, and Florida State at Maryland. The Blue Devils moved up to the 1 line in our bracket this week, and they'll remain there on Monday provided they don't slip up at home against the Owls tonight or at Virginia Tech on Saturday. Cincinnati and Florida State, meanwhile, are in pretty similar positions with to weeks to go in the regular season. The Bearcats will get an at-large if they can win two of their final four games (at Georgetown, UConn, at Marquette, Georgetown). If they go 1-3, they'll have to win two Big East tournament games to feel completely safe. The 'Noles need two wins in their final four games to be a lock, and will need two ACC tournament wins to feel totally safe if they finish 1-3.

Also keep an eye on: Notre Dame at Providence, Purdue at Indiana, Oklahoma at Texas A&M, North Carolina at North Carolina State, DePaul at St. John's, Kentucky at Arkansas, Auburn at Alabama, UNLV at New Mexico, UTEP at East Carolina, Creighton at Wichita State, Missouri State at Southern Illinois

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

B101's Bracket Banter - Tuesday

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

Tuesday's Games
The focus is on the Big Ten tonight, where there are two big bubble battles on tap. The most important bubble game of the night is the match-up between Michigan State and Minnesota. The Gophers' late season slide (they have lost five of six) needs to come to an end this week or else they won't find themselves in the bracket next week. They have a huge week ahead with the Michigan schools coming in, and they need to win three of their last four just to finish 9-9 in conference. If they can't get to 9-9 in conference, a deep Big Ten run would likely be required to lock down a bid. A win for the Spartans would do wonders for their tourney hopes as it would give them the season sweep over the Gophers and make them a virtual lock for at least a 9-9 conference finish.

The other Big Ten bubble team in action is Illinois, which travels to Ohio State. Obviously a road win over the Buckeyes isn't a requirement for the Illini to make the tournament, and at least a 9-9 conference finish looks like a certainty for them with home games against Iowa and Indiana remaining. A win here could turn the focus back towards how high of a seed the Illini could end up with instead of what they need to do to secure their bid.

The two other games of note tonight are Tennessee at Vanderbilt and Virginia Tech at Wake Forest. The Volunteers gave themselves little wiggle room by losing to Georgia over the weekend, and they now have to pick up at least two wins in their last four games to feel good about their tourney hopes heading into the SEC tournament. The Hokies had an even worse loss over the weekend in losing at Virginia, which knocked them out of our latest bracket. They are once again setting the table to be one of the most debated bubble teams come Selection Sunday, and their game at Wake Forest should just be a tune-up for their make-or-break game against Duke this weekend.

Also keep and eye on: Iowa State at Texas, Louisville at Rutgers, LaSalle at Xavier, Houston at Memphis, UNC-Asheville at Coastal Carolina