Sunday, January 17, 2010

B101's Sunday Tweets

Our quick thoughts on Sunday's results:

We hate to say we told you so...but UConn is no longer a tournament team. For weeks we have been stunned at how many bracketologists have kept UConn a top-five seed despite the fact that the Huskies had a worse resume than most bubble teams and despite the fact that on the court, they have not looked at all worthy of a bid. Their poor play finally came to a head on Sunday, as they finished up an 0-2 week with a killer 68-63 loss in Ann Arbor to a Michigan team that hasn't been able to get out of its own way itself over the past few weeks. The Huskies were again awful from the perimeter (they hit 1-of-11 threes) and from the line (16-of-25) and they turned the ball over 17 times. As a result, they will find themselves in very unfamiliar territory on Monday morning - on the outside looking in at our Field of 65.

Was there anything more symbolic to the Huskies struggles this season than Stanley Robinson's airballed free-throw in the closing seconds? Yikes.

Note to Michigan fans: Nice rush, but save it for a good team next time.

Villanova made a very strong case to be a 1 seed this week by beating Georgetown 82-77 at the Wachovia Center. Scottie Reynolds led the way again for the Wildcats, scoring 27 points and making several key hustle plays in the second half as the Hoyas tried to made a comeback from a 15-point halftime deficit. As good as Greg Monroe was (29 points, 16 rebounds), Reynolds was even better.

As impressive as Villanova's performance was, they will remain on the 2 line this week in favor of Syracuse. Yes, the Wildcats are a game better in conference, but Syracuse still has an ever-so-slightly better OOC resume as well as a big road win over West Virginia. The Wildcats don't have a signature road win on their resume and they lost their biggest road test of the season at Temple. Both teams have a great argument for a 1, but we like the Orange just a little more.

Minnesota' spot in the bracket is on very, very thin ice after the Gophers lost another road game Sunday night at Indiana. Minnesota has now lost three of four overall and is now an atrocious 1-4 on the road, but they will still hang on to one of the final spots on our field next week for a couple of reasons. Their OOC win over Butler is nice and their win over Ohio State is looking better by the day. The Gophers also have Michigan State coming in this week. If they don't win that game they'll be out of our next bracket, but we kind of like their chances at home with their bracket lives on the line.

Of notes: Duke beat Wake Forest at home (thanks to a career-high 19 points and 14 rebounds from Miles Plumlee); Buffalo beat Akron at home.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

B101's Saturday Tweets

Our quick thoughts on Saturday's results:

There was a very realistic chance coming into this week that Ohio State could wake up Sunday morning with five conference losses. As it turns out, the only five the Buckeyes may see next to their name in the near future is a five seed in our next bracket. That's because even with Evan Turner in foul trouble, Ohio State knocked off Wisconsin 60-51 in Columbus on Saturday, evening their record in the Big Ten at 3-3. It was the Buckeyes' second win over a ranked team in five days, and looking ahead, it puts them in great shape to make a move to the top of the Big Ten standings. Their next six conference games are all very winnable, and with Wisconsin banged up, it's possible that the two best teams in the league right now are Michigan State and the Buckeyes.

Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Northwestern actually won a game over a ranked opponent (current temperature in hell - 31 degrees), handing Purdue its third straight loss, 72-64 at Welsh-Ryan Arena. The win improved the Wildcats to 2-3 in conference and will make them one of the most difficult teams for us bracket-wise tomorrow night. It's easy to put Northwestern in and cite this win as the reason why, but we also have to consider that the Wildcats' only decent OOC win (Notre Dame) looks worse today than it did a week ago, and that three of Northwestern's next four games in conference are on the road. None of those three (at Ohio State, at Minnesota, at Michigan State) are going to be easy, and there's a good chance they lose them all. For Purdue, this loss likely means a drop to the end of the 2 line next week.

Texas probably thought being number one was going to be fun. Whoops. For the second straight game, the top-ranked Longhorns had to scratch and claw their way to a victory, this time fighting off a valiant effort from Texas A&M in Austin. Texas won 72-67 in overtime, but had to come back from a 9-point halftime deficit to do so. Damion James led the Texas rally, scoring seven of his 26 points in overtime and adding 12 rebounds in the win. What's the Longhorns' reward for escaping the week unbeaten? A ginormous showdown at Kansas State on Big Monday and a trip to Storrs to face a desperate UConn team on Saturday.

Syracuse survived a late charge by West Virginia and managed to pull out a huge road win in Morgantown. The Orange had a 10 point lead with just over a minute remaining, but had to hang for a 72-71 victory. Still, a win's a win, and this one on the road will land Syracuse on the 1 line on Monday. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, have certainly come back down to earth after their torrid start to the season. They have now dropped three out of five games and haven't been able to pull out any games in the closing minutes like they were earlier in the year. They oddly have two OOC games this week against Marshall and Ohio State. Hmm...When is the last time a team from a BCS conference played back-to-back OOC games in late January?

Pitt was able to do what WVU could not. They stormed back at the end of regulation and were able to defeat Louisville in overtime. Pitino took the loss particularly hard saying that it was the second worst of his career (the Laettner shot tops the list). The Panthers are one of the hottest team in the country and they extended their home win streak to 31 games. They will likely find themselves on the 3 line come Monday. Louisville, on the other hand squandered, yet another great opportunity to get themselves back into the bracket discussion.

One team that is actually hotter than Pitt is Tennessee. The Volunteers picked up their sixth straight win by taking down Mississippi in overtime. Wayne Chism led the charge for Tennessee once again, pouring in 26 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. The Rebels certainly didn't do themselves any favors by turning the ball over 21 times. Things are only going to get better for the short-handed Vols, too, as Bruce Pearl announced Saturday that Melvin Goins and Cameron Tatum would return from their suspensions this week.

Things are starting to get rough for North Carolina - now they're even losing home games. The Tar Heels were unable to come back from an early 20-point deficit and ended up losing to Georgia Tech, 73-71. Before Saturday, all of their previous losses had at least come away from Chapel Hill. Carolina has now dropped 3 of 4 and is sitting at 1-2 in the ACC. The Tar Heels will at least double their seed in Monday's bracket as a result (their wins over Michigan State and Ohio State seem like a long time ago.) If the Yellow Jackets could have managed to win their "easy" games they would be a top 5 seed. As it is, they'll be at worst a 7 next week.

Virginia's win at home against Miami may knock the Hurricanes to the wrong side of the bubble in our next bracket and - who saw this coming? - it may be enough to sneak the suddenly red-hot Cavaliers in the field as their replacement. Virginia capped a 2-0 week with a convincing 75-57 win at home over the 'Canes and extended their current win streak to seven games. At 3-0 in conference, Virginia will be every "season ending today" bracketologist's field on Monday. We won't automatically put them in because they are in first place in conference; instead, we'll analyze the rest of their ACC schedule to see if we can get them to 10-6. With their weak OOC resume (their best win was UAB), it's likely going to take more than 9-7 to get the Cavs a bid.

Xavier will likely find themselves back in the bracket after their home win over Dayton. The Musketeers stand alone at 4-0 in the A-10 and have a top 20 RPI, but are still by no means safely in the field. They played a brutal OOC schedule, but the only OOC win they have that is worth anything was at home over Cincinnati. It's very difficult to pick a pecking order between the top 5 teams in the A-10 bracket-wise. Temple is clearly at the top, but it gets very difficult to rank 2-5 between Dayton, Xavier, URI, and Richmond.

We'd like to thank Washington for making us look good this week. We stuck our neck out on the line a little bit this week with our inclusion of the Huskies and their 1-3 conference mark as the lone Pac-10 representative. The repaid us with blowout wins over Stanford on Thursday and Cal today. Quincy Poindexter lead the Huskies with 25 points in a game that was never in doubt after 10 minutes into the game. Now the question is whether or not the Huskies will be able to win on the road as they travel to take on the L.A. schools next week.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, made us look pretty bad, as they lost 60-58 at Cincinnati. The Irish were unable to capitalize on 32% shooting by the Bearcats and blew a 7-point halftime lead. Cincinnati fans who are still bitter over the Irish stealing away football coach Brian Kelly can at least take solace in the fact that they just knocked ND out of next week's bracket. The Bearcats were in desperate need of a victory after dropping their last two and likely saved themselves from dropping out of Monday's bracket.

It was not a good couple of days for mid-major teams with at-large aspirations. St. Mary's lost at home to Gonzaga Thursday night and then Wichita State fell 57-56 at Creighton on Saturday. Like the Gaels, the Shockers are going to be heavily discussed tomorrow night as we put together our bracket. There's a chance that both might end up on the outside looking in, but if one of the two makes it, it will probably be Wichita. The Shockers, who haven't lost at home all season, host Northern Iowa on Tuesday and we can definitely envision them pulling the upset.

Of note: Clemson won at N.C. State; Michigan State beat Illinois; Missouri fell at Oklahoma; Kansas destroyed Texas Tech; Baylor beat Oklahoma State; Rhode Island won at Fordham; Temple beat UMass; Kentucky beat Auburn; Vanderbilt won at South Carolina; Florida beat LSU; Mississippi State handled Georgia; UNLV lost at home to Utah; New Mexico won at Wyoming; Richmond topped LaSalle; Northern Iowa beat Indiana State; William & Mary beat Hofstra; St. Mary's beat Portland.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

B101's Weekday Tweets - Thursday

Our quick thoughts on Thursday's results:

St. Mary's has hung around the 10-12 lines in our bracket all season, but after their home loss to Gonzaga on Thursday night, it's going to be tough to keep them in the field next week. One of the main reasons the Gaels were even in our bracket in the first place - despite a mediocre OOC resume - was our belief that they would at worst split with the Zags during the regular season. Losing to them at home, pretty convincingly, really hurts their at-large profile. If we assume St. Mary's loses at Gonzaga on Feb. 11, that leaves them no more chances to pick up a quality win the rest of the way.

Washington and Cal both won last night, over Stanford and Washington State, respectively, to set up a win-and-you're-in-next-week game Saturday afternoon in Seattle. Cal heads into the game at 3-1 in conference, thanks to their impressive road win Thursday night against the Cougars. Jerome Randle finished with a career-high 39 points and added nine assists for the Bears in the victory. Washington, meanwhile, snapped its three-game skid Thursday by crushing the Cardinal, 94-61. The winner of Saturday's game will likely be a low 9/high 10 seed in Monday's bracket.

It took Tennessee about a half to sober up from its Kansas hangover, but in the end the Vols had no problem getting past Auburn on Thursday night. Tennessee destroyed the Tigers in the second half, holding them to just 18 points in an 81-55 win. Next up for the Vols is a home game against Mississippi on Saturday, before they hit the road for two next week (at Alabama, at Georgia).

Of note: Mississippi State beat Arkansas at home (thanks to Jarvis Varnado's 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 blocks); Georgetown beat Seton Hall at home; Butler beat Cleveland State at home; William & Mary beat James Madison at home.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

B101's Weekday Tweets - Wednesday

Our quick thoughts on Wednesday's results:

Even with its awful history against North Carolina, Clemson had to feel pretty good about its chances to knock off the Tar Heels going into Wednesday night's game at Littlejohn. Not even the biggest of dreamers could have predicted this, though. Led by Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt, the Tigers flat-out dominated Carolina, leading by as many as 25 in the first half and eventually rolling to an 83-64 win. It was the Tigers' first win in six years over the Tar Heels, who are now an eye-popping 1-5 away from home this season. The win is obviously huge for Clemson's resume - if the Tigers can avoid a letdown and win at N.C. State this weekend, they'll be near the top of the 4 line next week. The Heels, on the other hand, will continue to slide in the opposite direction. If they beat Georgia Tech on Saturday, they could hang on to a 5 seed. If not, they'll likely be on the 6 line.

We'll give the Clemson court rush a solid B+. We love the fact that it came from both sides and that it was very orange, but it took just a liiiittle bit too long for the whole court to be covered. All in all, though, a job well done. (In case anyone was wondering, we're cool with Clemson rushing, even though it wasn't that big of an upset and the Tigers were actually favored by three points. As down as they may be, Carolina is still Carolina, they're the defending national champs, and they've absolutely owned Clemson over the years. Let the kids celebrate.)

Texas' first game as the number one team in the country wasn't an easy one, but it still ended just like every other Longhorns' game has so far this season. Avery Bradley (the best freshman no one ever talks about) scored 24 points and Damion James added 23 points and 14 rebounds as Texas recovered from a shaky first half to beat Iowa State 90-83 in Ames. Next up for the Longhorns is a home game against Texas A&M on Saturday, which kicks off a five-game stretch against tourney-quality teams (A&M, at Kansas State, at UConn, Texas Tech, Baylor). We have a funny feeling they won't be undefeated when the Red Raiders come to town.

UConn is now officially on the bubble. It was upstart Pitt that got the best of the Huskies Wednesday night, handing them their first home loss of the season. Maybe this loss will finally convince fellow bracketologists that the Huskies don’t belong on the 4/5 line. UConn could actually find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble come next week if they aren’t able to pick up their first road win of the season this weekend against Michigan. Pitt, on the other hand, will only continue to climb up the bracket and could really be considered the favorite in the Big East race. Their 4-0 start has included three impressive road wins, they don’t have to play Syracuse again, and they get Villanova at home.

The only team falling faster in the bracket than UConn may be Cincinnati. Dwight Hardy was able to make two steals and four free throws in the final 10 seconds to help St. John's steal one from the Bearcats at the Garden. Cincinnati has now dropped three in a row in conference as they return home to take on Notre Dame this weekend in what amounts to an elimination game for next week’s bracket. The win was the first one in Big East play for St. John’s as they try to stay relevant after they dropped their first three conference games.

Just when we started to believe in Miami, they went out and got absolutely embarrassed at Virginia Tech. The Hokies led by double digits after five minutes and by as many as 35 in the first half. It’s easily Virginia Tech’s best win on the year and another win at Florida State this weekend will land them in next week’s bracket. The Hokies will need to win at least nine games in conference to go dancing since they have no good OOC wins to speak of and a fairly easy ACC schedule (they only face Duke, Wake Forest, and Clemson once).

Speaking of the ACC, that's not a typo at the top of the league standings. Virginia is the lone remaining unbeaten in conference after knocking off Georgia Tech 82-75 at home Wednesday night. The Cavaliers have now won seven in a row overall, and have beaten two tournament teams in the process (GT and UAB). Georgia Tech, meanwhile, looked nothing like the team that upset Duke its last time out. They shot an abysmal 3-for-11 from the line against Virginia and managed just six field goals in the last nine-plus minutes of the game. They’re now staring at a potential 0-2 week with a game at Chapel Hill looming on Saturday.

Wisconsin fared just fine in its first game without Jon Leuer. The 13th-ranked Badgers won at Northwestern 60-50, holding the Wildcats to just 23 points in the second half. Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohanon combined for 34 points in Leuer’s absence to lead the Badgers, who improved to 4-1 in conference with the win. The loss dropped Northwestern to 1-3 in the Big Ten and temporarily off the Last Four Out line. They now face a real must-win game at home against Purdue this weekend. Another loss and they can say goodbye to their spot on the bubble.

We hammered Texas Tech in our bracket this week, dropping them from the 6 line to the 12 line after they lost at Oklahoma State. As is turns out, we were being way too nice. The Red Raiders are out of the bracket altogether now, after losing 94-89 in overtime to Missouri at home Wednesday. Texas Tech actually rallied from eight down with 1:10 to play to force OT, but in OT, they missed three huge free throws, including two by Nick Okorie with 21 seconds left and the Red Raiders trailing by one. For the game, Texas Tech shot 17-of-31 from the line.

Vanderbilt passed the first of two tough road tests this week, winning 65-64 at Auburn Wednesday night. The Commodores rallied from a seven-point halftime deficit and sealed the win on a Jeffery Taylor free throw with six seconds left. Alabama had a chance to win on the game's final possession, but Alabama's Anthony Brock couldn't connect on a tough shot in traffic. The win is Vandy's seventh in a row, and if they win at South Carolina on Saturday, they will likely find themselves on the 7 line next week.

Xavier's now won 25 straight A-10 home games after beating Charlotte 86-74 on Wednesday night. If the Musketeers can make it 26 straight with a win at home over Dayton this weekend, they'll move to 4-0 in conference and they'll have an outside chance to sneak into next week's bracket. Xavier would be safely in had they just picked up one more quality OOC win earlier in the season. None of their five losses are bad, but their only real quality win (Cincinnati) doesn't look nearly as good as it once did.

Of note: Kansas won at Nebraska; Michigan State beat Minnesota at home; Syracuse won at Rutgers; Duke beat Boston College at home; West Virginia won at South Florida; Mississippi won at Georgia; Richmond beat UMass in OT at home; Rhode Island beat St. Joe’s at home; Temple won at Penn; Dayton won at Fordham; Wichita State won at Indiana State; UNLV beat San Diego State at home; BYU won at Air Force; New Mexico beat Utah at home.