B101's Bracket Banter - Thursday

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

Thursday's Games
Over the last 72 hours, the bubble has gone from a fun thing to criticize to a full-blown laughingstock. Virginia Tech, Colorado, Baylor, Alabama, Penn State, Clemson, Minnesota, Maryland, Memphis, and Southern Miss all lost critical bubble battles in the past three days, making the already weak bubble weaker than ever.

Those results have had an interesting impact on the three biggest games on tonight's schedule - Tennessee at South Carolina, UCLA at Washington, and USC at Washington State. Washington's seed slipped all the way to the bottom of the 10 line after a home loss to Wazzu over the weekend, and it appeared that a 2-0 week was going to be necessary to keep the Huskies in the bracket for another week. After all the bubble craziness the past three days, though, that might not be the case. A split, plus one Pac-10 tourney win, is probably all Washington needs to go dancing at this point.

Tennessee entered the week in a similar position. The Vols laid an egg at home against Mississippi State on Saturday, which gave them 12 losses on the year and made it seem like a 2-0 week was going to be necessary to keep them in the field. Now, it looks like a split plus one SEC tournament win will be enough to get Tennessee an at-large, despite the fact that they could finish with 14 losses. That would tie Georgia's record from 2001, when the Bulldogs got an at-large at 16-14. Georgia had the No. 1 SOS in the country and eight Top 50 wins that year; Tennessee has the No. 2 SOS and seven Top 50 wins heading into tonight's game against the Gamecocks.

Finally, USC takes on Washington State in a bubble battle that could only happen in the context of a 68-team field. These two teams have a combined nine losses to teams outside the Top 100 (nine!!), yet the winner will still be very much alive for an at-large berth. The loser of this game will need to win the Pac-10 tournament to get a bid; the winner will need to get to to the final to still be in the mix on Selection Sunday.

Conference Tournaments
The Big South semifinals are tonight, with top-seeded Coastal Carolina taking on VMI and second-seeded UNC-Asheville taking on High Point. Top seed Long Island plays St. Francis (PA) in the Northeast Conference quarterfinals, the Atlantic Sun quarterfinals continue with Jacksonville facing North Florida and Lipscomb facing Mercer, and the Ohio Valley quarters continue with Austin Peay taking on SE Missouri State and Tennessee Tech taking on UT-Martin. First round play in the Missouri Valley and American East also begins tonight. Top seed Missouri State will take on the winner of tonight's Illinois State-Southern Illinois game in the MVC quarters on Friday.

Also keep an eye on: Wisconsin at Indiana, St. John's at Seton Hall, Oregon State at Arizona

B101's Bracket Banter - Wednesday

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the nights games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

Wednesday's Games
Do you think if we started a rumor that the NCAA decided to go back to a 65-team tourney because of the weak bubble that it would have any legs? After last night's performance by a few bubble teams (we're talking to you Virginia Tech, Baylor, and Alabama) we wish that rumor were true.

The games in Bubbleville tonight are not as significant as last night, but there are still some important must-win games for bubble teams. Michigan State and Colorado State must take care of business at home against teams in the bottom half of their conference standings (Iowa and Utah), while bracket newcomer Colorado has to navigate through a tricky road trip to Iowa State (just ask Nebraska). The games for Michigan State and Colorado State are warm-ups for critical road games this weekend (Michigan and SDSU), while Colorado returns home for a bubble elimination game against the Huskers.

The other focus tonight will be on teams in the Big XII, MWC, Big East, A-10, and C-USA who have the chance to clinch at least a share of the regular season crown. Kansas has Texas A&M visiting, and if the Jayhawks can pick up a win over the Aggies and then at Missouri over the weekend, they are likely a lock for a one seed. BYU will be looking to secure the top seed in the MWC tourney and avenge their only conference loss of the season in their game against New Mexico. The other important storyline to this game is how BYU will play in their first game without Brandon Davies.

Pitt and Xavier can also clinch at least a share of their conference titles with wins over bottom feeders South Florida and Charlotte. In C-USA, UAB plays at Southern Miss in another key bubble battle. If UAB can pick up the road win, they would only need a home win over East Carolina over the weekend to clinch the outright regular season title. That title could lead to an at-large bid if they need it. If Southern Miss completes a season sweep of the Blazers, they will pass them in the bunched-up C-USA pecking order.

Elsewhere in power conference action, Duke and North Carolina will look to avoid stumbles prior to their weekend showdown in Chapel Hill, which will determine the ACC title. Clemson heads to Cameron Indoor looking to pull off the huge upset that would finally catapult them into the bracket, and down in Tallahassee, Florida State looks to lock down their bid by knocking off the Tar Heels. In Big East play, UConn travels to West Virginia and Cincinnati plays at Marquette. These two games will have a major impact on the final Big East pecking order and on which teams earn first round byes in the Big East tourney.

Conference Tournaments
The Atlantic Sun, Ohio Valley, and Patriot League begin conference tourney play tonight. Heavily favored Belmont, out of the A-Sun, will start things off against a Kennesaw State team they just beat by 43 points on the road. In the Patriot, top-seeded Bucknell kicks things off against Army as the Bison look to get back to the tournament for the first time in five years.

Also keep an eye on: Providence at Louisville, LSU at Georgia, Temple at UMass, Utah State at New Mexico State, Minnesota at Northwestern, Memphis at East Carolina, Maryland at Miami

B101's Bracket Banter - Tuesday

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

Tuesday's Games
Debates about 1 seeds are fun and all, but the first week in March is all about the bubble. Tonight, a half dozen bubble teams get to stake their claim to a spot in the bracket.

The biggest and most anticipated game of the night is Ohio State at Penn State. The Nittany Lions have been one of the most talked about teams on this site over the past couple weeks, and much of that discussion has centered around their ability to win this game. If they do win, and follow up that win with a victory at Minnesota this weekend, they'll be dancing. If they lose tonight, they'll need a win over the Gophers and a trip to the Big Ten semis to be in the at-large mix. If they win tonight and then lose at Minnesota, one Big Ten tourney win would probably be enough, and two would almost certainly get them a bid. Got all that?

The other hotly debated bubble team in action tonight is Alabama, which travels to Gainesville to take on Florida. There is probably no better poster child right now for why the 68-team field is a bad idea than the Crimson Tide. Despite an 89 RPI (89!) and a resume that features more bad losses than good wins, the Tide are very much alive for an at-large bid. If they win this game against the Gators, it's hard to see them getting left out. If they lose, the debate continues. Would a win over Georgia this weekend, and a 12-4 finish, be enough? How many SEC tourney wins would they need at that point to be safe? One? Two?

In Big XII bubble action, Baylor plays at Oklahoma State and Nebraska hosts Missouri. The Huskers are barely clinging to a spot on the bubble right now after their brutal loss at Iowa State over the weekend. A win here won't get them back in the bracket, but it will at least keep them relevant heading into the weekend. They'd have to win at Colorado on Saturday and then make a very deep Big XII tourney run to get in. Baylor, meanwhile, enters the final week of the regular season on the right side of the bubble, but not by much. They're probably going to need a sweep of the Cowboys and Longhorns this week to have a chance at an at-large. Two wins would get them to 9-7 in conference, which should make up for their lack of an OOC resume. A 1-1 week would leave them needing two Big XII tourney wins to stay alive.

The final bubble game of night takes place in the ACC, where Boston College plays at Virginia Tech in what is essentially a "play-out" game for the Eagles. If they lose to the Hokies, we can't see any way that BC gets an at-large. If they're able to pull the upset, and then take care of Wake Forest at home on Sunday, they'll probably be in the bracket heading into the ACC tourney. A loss would definitely put a crack in Virginia Tech's resume, but it wouldn't necessarily knock them out next week. They'd have to win at Clemson this weekend and win a game (maybe two) in the ACC tourney to like their chances.

Finally, in non-bubble action, Vanderbilt plays at Kentucky and Illinois plays at Purdue. The Vandy-Kentucky game is important for both in terms of seeding, but it's more important for the Wildcats considering they already lost to the Commodores once and trail them by a game in conference. There aren't many teams in the country playing better than Purdue over the last three weeks, and they take a six-game win streak into their game against the Illini. A 2-0 finish to their regular season would put them in great shape for a 2 seed heading into the Big Ten tournament. Illinois probably just needs to win at home against Indiana this weekend and then win one Big Ten tourney game to lock down a bid.

Conference Tournaments
The Horizon and the Big South both begin conference tournament action tonight. In the first round of the Horizon, Cleveland State plays Illinois-Chicago, Valparaiso plays Youngstown State, Loyola (IL) takes on Detroit, and Green Bay takes on Wright State. Top-seeded Milwaukee and second-seeded Butler have byes to the semifinals. In the Big South, top-seeded Coastal Carolina opens with Gardner-Webb.

Also keep an eye on: San Diego State at Wyoming

Bracketology 101's Field of 68 - Feb. 28

Just when it looked like the bubble couldn't get any weaker, Upset Saturday struck again.

In a span of 12 hours, Virginia Tech knocked off top-ranked Duke, Colorado had a second half for the ages and stunned Texas, Kansas State and Baylor beat ranked opponents at home, Alabama lost at Mississippi, Minnesota lost - again - this time at home to Michigan, Memphis got obliterated at UTEP, Colorado State lost at Air Force (Air Force?!), and Nebraska lost at Iowa State (Iowa State??!!) By the end of the night, our 10-12 lines were in shambles, and we were left to sift through some of the worst at-large resumes we can remember to try to fill a 68-team field.

Ultimately, we decided on the following changes: Minnesota, Boston College, Colorado State, and Nebraska dropped out, and Virginia Tech, Michigan, Colorado, and Baylor jumped in. Nebraska was the easiest team to take out because the Huskers are now eighth in the Big XII pecking order. Colorado State was an easy removal as well because we don't give them much of a chance to win at San Diego State this week. Minnesota has the best wins of the four teams we took out, but they are in complete free-fall mode right now. The Gophers need to win their last two games just to get to 8-10 in conference, and even then, they'll probably have to get to the Big Ten final to get an at-large. BC was done in by their brutal home loss to Miami and the fact that they have to play at Virginia Tech on Tuesday. If they lose that game, which we think they will, they'll finish at best 8-8 in conference, which won't be enough.

Replacing those four teams in the bracket was a struggle. We wanted to include a bid-stealer for at least one of the open spots, but incredibly - in a year with three more at-large spots available and an awful bubble - there are just no bid-stealers out there right now. We don't like Missouri State's chances to get an at-large if they lose in the MVC final, and Conference USA is such a mess right now that the regular season champ probably won't be worthy of an at-large (if needed) down the road, either. The only bid-stealer possibility that we gave serious consideration to was the Horizon getting two bids (Milwaukee as the automatic and Butler an at-large). In the end, though, we stuck with the resurgent Bulldogs as our pick to win the Horizon tourney, and left the league with just one bid.

With no bid-stealers available, we had to pick from a group of teams with a lot of warts and a lot of work left to do. Virginia Tech was the easiest inclusion because of their win over the Blue Devils and their upcoming home game against BC. Michigan made the cut, despite their loss at home to Wisconsin on Wednesday, because we think they have a decent chance to beat Michigan State at home this weekend and then win their first Big Ten tourney game. Colorado made the cut because, after their upset of the Longhorns, the Buffs have five Top 50 wins overall and four Top 50 wins in conference. Their season sweep of Kansas State is huge, and their final two games (at Iowa State, vs. Nebraska) are very winnable. A 9-7 finish, even with an OOC SOS of 323, should put Colorado on the right side of the bubble heading into the Big XII tournament.

Our fourth at-large hole was filled by Baylor, who completed a season sweep of A&M on Saturday night to get back to .500 in conference. The Bears' final two games are both tough - at Oklahoma State and at home against Texas - but we think they have an outside chance to win both, especially with the Gameday crew coming to town over the weekend. If they split those two games, they'll have to make a deep run in the Big XII tournament to get back in the mix for a bid. Finally, in a decision that will surely cause some spirited debate in the comment section this week, we kept Alabama in the bracket as our last team in. We really can't defend the Tide's overall profile (two Top 50 wins, an 89 RPI), but we still think that if they finish 12-4, especially on this bubble, that the committee will give them a bid. Until 12-4 is mathematically impossible, we're sticking with them.

Elsewhere in the bracket, there was a change on the 1 line as BYU replaces Duke. The Cougars are likely going to have to win the MWC tourney to get a 1 seed, but given the way they played in front of a raucous SDSU crowd on Saturday, we think they can do that. In other changes to the top quarter of the bracket, SDSU fell from a 2 to a 3, Florida fell from a 3 to a 4, Louisville climbed from a 4 to a 3, and St. John's and North Carolina both went from 5s to 4s. The biggest upgrades of the week were BYU (who moved from a 3 to a 1), Syracuse (from a 5 to a 3), Kansas State (from an 11 to an 8), and Marquette (from am 11 to a 9). The biggest downgrade was Georgetown (from a 3 to a 5).

Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In
Michigan, Colorado, Baylor, Alabama

First Four Out
Boston College, Penn State, UAB, Colorado State

Next Four Out
Clemson, Memphis, USC, Minnesota

"First Four" Games
Michigan vs. Colorado, Baylor vs. Alabama, Murray State vs. Bethune-Cookman, Texas Southern vs. McNeese State

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Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (7), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (4), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)

America East - Vermont

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, Temple, Richmond

Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, St. John's, Connecticut, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette

Big Sky - Northern Colorado

Big South - Coastal Carolina

Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan

Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Colorado, Baylor

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - George Mason, Old Dominion

Conference USA - Southern Miss

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Princeton

MAAC - Fairfield

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Bethune Cookman

MVC - Missouri State

MWC - BYU, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast - Long Island

Ohio Valley - Murray State

Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama

Southern - Charleston

Southland - McNeese State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic

SWAC - Texas Southern

WAC - Utah State

WCC - St. Mary's, Gonzaga

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The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, BYU

The 2s
Duke, Notre Dame, Purdue, Texas

The 3s
Louisville, Wisconsin, Syracuse, San Diego State

The 4s
St. John's, Florida, Connecticut, North Carolina

The 5s
Georgetown, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Villanova

The 6s
Xavier, Texas A&M, Arizona, West Virginia

The 7s
Missouri, Temple, UCLA, UNLV

The 8s
Cincinnati, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State

The 9s
Utah State, Marquette, Florida State, Illinois

The 10s
Tennessee, Georgia, Michigan State, Washington

The 11s
Richmond, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech

The 12s
Butler, Michigan vs. Colorado (FF), Baylor vs. Alabama (FF), Southern Miss

The 13s
Missouri State, Princeton, Belmont, Oakland

The 14s
Charleston, Coastal Carolina, Bucknell, Fairfield

The 15s
Vermont, Kent State, Long Beach State, Long Island

The 16s
Florida Atlantic, Northern Colorado, Murray State vs. Bethune Cookman (FF), Texas Southern vs. McNeese State (FF)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
















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