Thursday, February 03, 2011

B101's Bracket Banter - Thursday

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

Thursday's Games
There are only a few power conference games worth watching tonight, which means two mid-majors battling for at-large bids will take center stage.

In the biggest game of the night, Gonzaga faces an absolute must-win at Portland. The Zags are the last team in our bracket this week after their home loss to St. Mary's, and they'll need to win this game and then beat Memphis at home this weekend to avoid dropping out. If they lose one of those two games, they would likely have to win out to have any hope at an at-large.

The second key mid-major game of the night is Valparaiso at Cleveland State. Both of these teams are fighting for the Horizon regular season title (Cleveland State leads by a half game) and for a chance at an at-large. Cleveland State has a very pretty record and a nice RPI, but one of their three losses was at Valpo. A season sweep at the hands of the Crusaders would not exactly look good on a resume. If the Vikings do get the win at home and then beat Butler over the weekend, they have to be considered a serious at-large contender. If Valpo wins, they'd have a big leg up in the race to win the Horizon title, which in a 68-team field, could be viewed as an at-large worthy accomplishment.

Three of the four Pac-10 teams in our bracket are also in action tonight, and all play on the road. Washington, which is looking to bounce back from its loss to Washington State, plays at Oregon State, Arizona plays at Stanford, and Washington State plays at Oregon. The Cougars stayed in the field this week thanks to their upset of the Huskies, but their spot is far from secure. They still have the fourth-best resume in a league that might only deserve three bids, and they play five of their next seven on the road. They're just 1-3 on the road in conference so far, with the lone win coming at Stanford.

The only other notable game of the night is Michigan at Ohio State. This game had all the makings of a blowout a week ago, but the Wolverines have now won two straight and looked very good in winning at Michigan State last Thursday. (Or maybe the Spartans are just that bad right now.) This is the unbeaten Buckeyes' easiest game for a while: their next five games are all against tourney-caliber Big Ten teams, starting with a trip to Minnesota this weekend.

Also keep an eye on: Notre Dame at DePaul, Tennessee at Auburn, Pepperdine at St. Mary's, Butler at Youngstown State, Belmont at Jacksonville, Liberty at Coastal Carolina

Wednesday, February 02, 2011

B101's Bracket Banter - Wednesday

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

Wednesday's Games
If there are going to be significant changes in our next bracket, it will likely be because of what happens tonight across the country. Twenty-six of the 68 teams we have in our current field are in action tonight, as are seven of the eight teams on our First Eight Out list.

The two most important games of the night involve teams that are thisclose to earning a bid - Maryland and Colorado State. The Terps host Duke tonight in College Park, three days after the Blue Devils were embarrassed by St. John's in the Garden. That loss knocked Duke off of the 1 line, and they'll have a tougher road getting back there if they lose this one. Maryland, meanwhile, has won three in a row to get back into the bubble mix after a 1-3 start in conference. The Terps have don't have any terrible losses on their resume, but they only have one Top 50 win and they've yet to beat a tourney-caliber ACC team. A victory here would give them a second marquee win, a much-needed RPI bump, and most importantly, a resume worthy of an at-large.

In the Mountain West, Colorado State can stake their claim to an at-large with a win over the visiting Aztecs. The Rams have a nice profile already - they have a road win at UNLV and are in third place in the fourth-ranked conference in the country - but they need a second signature win. They missed out on an opportunity to get that second win at home against BYU a week and a half ago, and if they miss out again tonight, they are going to have to beat SDSU or BYU on the road to be at-large worthy.

In other important bubble games, Georgia plays at Arkansas, Virginia Tech plays at N.C. State, Baylor plays at Oklahoma, Nebraska plays at Kansas State, and Missouri plays at Oklahoma State. The Big XII bubble is an absolute mess right now, and has left the third ranked conference in the country with as many bids as the Mountain West, Pac-10, and A-10. Oklahoma State has dropped below Baylor, Kansas State, and Nebraska in the Big XII pecking order, but they can return to relevance with an upset at home against the Tigers. Kansas State has the easiest remaining schedule of any Big XII bubble team, but they've also lost five of their last seven. Nebraska, meanwhile, stunned everyone with the defensive effort they put forth against Texas A&M this past weekend. If the Huskers can get past the Wildcats tonight, their schedule sets up nicely for them to make a real run at a bid. They host Kansas this weekend and they still have home games left against Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas State, and Missouri.

There are also two huge games tonight in the Big East, as Syracuse plays at UConn and Marquette plays at Villanova. The Orange have now famously lost four in a row are down to a 5 seed in out latest bracket. They face a Huskies team tonight that will be out to avenge a rare Gampel Pavilion loss at the hands on Louisville on Saturday. UConn was our fourth and final 1 seed this week, but their hold on that spot is very tenuous given the tear that Texas has been on the last three weeks. A slip-up here, and they'll be back on the 2 line. In the other notable Big East game, Marquette will try to avoid picking up its ninth loss of the year by winning on the road against the struggling Wildcats. The Golden Eagles resume is shaping up to be one of the toughest resumes to evaluate in the country. They have three Top 25 wins, but they've lost a ton of close games and their RPI (59) has been hurt because of some really bad small conference teams they played early in the year. A win tonight would keep Marquette safely in the field, while a loss would leave as one of the last teams in.

It's also a big night in the Colonial and the A-10. In the Colonial, Old Dominion hosts (and looks for revenge against) Delaware, VCU plays at Northeastern, and George Mason hosts Hofstra. In the A-10, Temple plays at LaSalle, Xavier plays at Charlotte, Richmond hosts St. Joseph's, and bracket newcomer Duquesne hosts George Washington.

Also keep an eye on: Michigan State at Iowa, Minnesota at Indiana, Rutgers at St. John's, Seton Hall at West Virginia, Clemson at Virginia, BYU at Wyoming, Utah at UNLV, USC at UCLA, Nevada at Utah State, Missouri State at Evansville, Tulsa at Memphis, Southern Miss at UAB, Illinois State at Northern Iowa

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

B101's Bracket Banter - Tuesday

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

Tuesday's Games
Who's the second best team in the Big Ten? The SEC? The ACC? We'll get at least some temporary answers to those questions tonight.

In the Big Ten, Purdue visits the Kohl Center to play a Wisconsin team looking to bounce back from their loss at Penn State on Saturday. The Boilermakers have a game and a half lead over the Badgers for second place in conference, and if they have designs on catching Ohio State, they probably need this game. That won't be an easy task against a Wisconsin team that is undefeated at home, a mark that includes wins over Minnesota and Illinois. In the SEC, Vanderbilt plays at Florida in a game that features two teams looking to regroup after bad losses over the weekend. The Gators are slightly ahead of Vandy on our S-curve this week, and if they can win this game and they beat Kentucky at home this weekend, an argument could be made for Florida to be the lowest-seeded SEC team.

Finally, in the ACC, North Carolina plays at BC in what is a key game for both teams. The Tar Heels have won eight of nine, are alone in second place in conference, and are up to a 6 seed in our latest bracket. They can put a little more room between themselves and Florida State in the ACC pecking order if than can win this one. The Eagles, meanwhile, have been trending the other way. They've lost three of four (all on the road), and they'll need at least a split this week (they host Virginia Tech on Saturday) to avoid slipping onto the bubble.

The biggest bubble game of the night is Penn State at Illinois. The Nittany Lions jumped into the field this week after their big win over Wisconsin, but their spot is by no means safe. Their road schedule is very difficult from here on out, and they are going to have to win at least one road game to impress the committee and to get to 10-8 in conference. They have to like their chances tonight against an Illini team that has lost four of five, which includes a road loss to Penn State back on Jan. 11.

Also keep an eye on: Kansas at Texas Tech, Kentucky at Mississippi, Wake Forest at Florida State, Wichita State at Indiana State, New Mexico at Air Force

ESPN Announces BracketBuster Schedule

ESPN announced the 2011 BracketBuster schedule on Monday, and it's highlighed by 11 televised games. In all, 114 teams from 15 conferences will play BracketBuster games from February 18-20.

Here are the televised games, with dates and times:

Friday, February 18
VCU at Wichita State (ESPN2, 7 p.m. ET)
Kent State at Drexel (ESPNU, 9 p.m. ET)

Saturday, February 19
Hofstra at Wright State (ESPNU, 11 a.m. ET)
Austin Peay at Fairfield (ESPNU, 1 p.m. ET)
Iona at Liberty (ESPNU, 3 p.m. ET)
Missouri State at Valparaiso (ESPN2, 5 p.m. ET)
Vermont at Charleston (ESPNU 5 p.m. ET)
George Mason at Northern Iowa (ESPN2, 7 p.m. ET)
Utah State at St. Mary's (ESPN2, 9 p.m. ET)
Montana at Long Beach State (ESPN2, 11:00 p.m. ET)

Sunday, February 20
Cleveland State at Old Dominion (ESPN or ESPN2, 1 p.m. ET)

------------------------------------------------

There are five huge games on this year's BracketBuster schedule. Here's our quick take on each one:

1. Utah State at St. Mary's
St. Mary's is the class of this year's BracketBuster crop, and unlike most other teams in the field, their at-large status does not necessarily depend on how well they do in this event. That said, a victory over Utah State would be a nice addition to a resume that already has two quality wins on it (St. John's and at Gonzaga). Utah State has a nice RPI and looks to be on cruise control on its way to a WAC title, but the Aggies have a grand total of zero Top 100 wins, which puts their at-large hopes in some doubt. A win here plus a WAC regular season title would almost guarantee Utah State an at-large if they needed it; a loss would leave them little margin for error going forward.

2. VCU at Wichita State
Old Dominion might have the best at-large resume in the Colonial, but don't sleep on VCU as an at-large candidate as well. The Rams beat UCLA, they are two games better than ODU in conference, and they've already beaten the Monarchs on the road. A win here over a Wichita team that is currently tied for first in the MVC would put VCU in great shape down the final stretch of the season. Wichita needs this game not only because they are at home, but more importantly, because they have no Top 100 wins. A victory over VCU plus a top-two finish in conference would keep the Shockers very much alive in the at-large mix.

3. Cleveland State at Old Dominion
With Butler struggling, Cleveland State has emerged as the team to beat in the very competitive Horizon. The Vikings have a gaudy record and a Top 30 RPI, but they've also lost all three games they've played against real quality competition this season (at West Virginia, at Butler, and at Valparaiso). A win on the road against ODU would work wonders for their resume, and it might get them a bid if they finish no worse than second in conference. ODU, meanwhile, has compiled arguably the best OOC resume of any BracketBuster team (wins over Xavier, Richmond, Dayton, and Clemson), but they've already lost three conference games with road games at George Mason and at VCU still left. A win here plus a top-two finish in the Colonial would put ODU in very, very good shape for an at-large.

4. Missouri State at Valparaiso
Is Valpo for real? The Crusaders didn't do anything OOC, but they've been great at home in conference play, knocking off Cleveland State and Butler en route to an 8-2 mark. If they can win at Cleveland State this week and then beat Missouri State, they'd have to be considered a serious at-large contender. Missouri State has been great on the road this season (they have wins at Wichita and at Northern Iowa), and another quality road win here would continue to strengthen the MVC's best at-large resume.

5. George Mason at Northern Iowa
This match-up wouldn't have seemed that big a couple of weeks ago, but both teams have now won seven in a row and are just a game back in their respective conferences. Northern Iowa's recent run has included road wins over Wichita and Missouri State, and Mason's seven-game streak has left them sandwiched in between VCU and ODU in the Colonial standings. The loser of this game is going to be hard-pressed to get an at-large, while the winner will put themselves in great shape with a couple weeks to go in the regular season.

------------------------------------------------

For a list of all the non-televised BracketBuster games, click here.