Bracketology 101's Sunday Morning Thoughts

We are currently in lockdown mode in Bracketology 101 headquarters with "One Shining Moment" playing on a continuous loop.

Saturday was a wild day filled with buzzer-beaters and crazy finishes, and as is the case every Championship Saturday, the final results answered some questions and opened up several more.

Here is how we see things heading into today's games:

1. Penn State and Richmond are in regardless of what happens today. A Dayton win today would not put Richmond in any jeopardy of getting squeezed.

2. San Diego State will probably end up on the 2 line after beating BYU in the MWC final last night. The Cougars could be as low as a 4.

3. We don't like Clemson's resume at all, but we can also see a fifth ACC bid being handed out. The Tigers would be the logical choice for that fifth bid.

4. Perhaps the biggest question mark is what the committee will do with Alabama and Georgia. We can't see both getting in or both getting left out. Alabama has beaten Georgia twice in the last week, but the Tide looked awful yesterday against Kentucky and don't have the RPI or OOC resume wins that Georgia has. 'Bama does have a much prettier Top 50 record, though (4-4 vs. 3-9). This will be one of the toughest calls of the day to make.

5. The other bubble team to watch today is St. Mary's. We think the Gaels are still in decent shape to get a bid because we think the committee will want to reward some mid-majors, and we like their resume better than UAB's, Missouri State's, or VCU's. A win by Dayton today, though, could change things that outlook and could leave St. Mary's on the outside looking in.

6. If Duke wins today, they will probably get the final 1 seed and Notre Dame will get bumped to a 2.

We will release our Final Field of 68 between 4-5 p.m. ET today. Until then, we will check the comments section periodically to answer any questions.

Bracketology 101's Field of 68 - March 12

Wow, what a day/afternoon/night! The buzzer beaters, the overtimes, the comebacks, the great individual performances...that 36-33 game (ugh). Here's a recap of yesterday's events and a quick overview of how we see things with just about 36 hours to go before the Selection Show:

Saturday Update
We have been waiting for the bubble teams to make their moves for a few weeks and it just never happened. Better late than never, right? Michigan State, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Richmond (and St. Mary's) all won last night, and in many cases (Michigan, Michigan State, Virginia Tech) the wins look to be bid-clinchers.

The hardest thing for us to do was pick the 37th an final at-large team from a pool of pretty ugly and very smiliar resumes. We said in our Friday notes that if Penn State beat Wisconsin, that they woud "likely" end up on the Last Four In line. The Nittany Lions held up their part of the deal, but as you can see in our bracket, we didn't hold up on our end. Clemson, not Penn State, is the final team in our field, as a result of the Tigers' blowout win over Boston College. The Nittany Lions may still be able to sneak in the field, even with a loss to Michigan State today, but we think they are still just shy of a bid heading into Saturday's action. Depending on how well they play and what Clemson does against UNC, they can get in. Right now, though, they are our last team out.

Big picture-wise, there are five teams in our bracket that we could potentially see getting left out - Alabama, Colorado, St. Mary's, Georgia, or Clemson. The three teams we think that have a chance for an at-large over any of these teams are Penn State, UAB, or USC. Obviously, if a bid- stealer comes out of the WAC or A-10 today, everything changes.

Some other important notes from Friday night:

- The Pac-10 results on Friday were a dream come true for bubble teams.

- There is still the chance for bid stealers out of the A-10 and WAC.

- Bubble teams need to pull for Memphis to beat UTEP.

- With ND losing to Louisville, there is definitely a potential opening on the 1 line. Can Duke get there if Nolan Smith is out? Can BYU climb back up? Those questions will get answered today.

This is our last bracket that will be released before our final Field of 68, which will be posted bracket on Sunday afternoon. We will answer as many questions as we can via Twitter and the comments section today and tomorrow. Enjoy Championship Weekend!

Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In
Colorado, St. Mary's, Georgia, Clemson

First Four Out
Penn State, UAB, USC, Boston College

Next Four Out
Memphis, VCU, Missouri State, Harvard

---------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)

America East - Boston University

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, Temple, Richmond

Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, Connecticut, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Marquette, Villanova

Big Sky - Northern Colorado

Big South - UNC-Asheville

Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State

Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri, Colorado

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Old Dominion, George Mason

Conference USA - UTEP

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Princeton

MAAC - St. Peter's

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Indiana State

MWC - BYU, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast - Long Island

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia

Southern - Wofford

Southland - McNeese State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC - Alabama State

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

The 2s
Duke, BYU, North Carolina, Florida

The 3s
Louisville, San Diego State, Texas, Syracuse

The 4s
Connecticut, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Purdue

The 5s
Arizona, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgetown

The 6s
Temple, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

The 7s
Xavier, Kansas State, Old Dominion, UNLV

The 8s
Utah State, UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee

The 9s
Missouri, Marquette, Gonzaga, Illinois

The 10s
Washington, Butler, Michigan, Villanova

The 11s
Michigan State, Florida State, Richmond, Virginia Tech

The 12s
Alabama, Colorado vs. St. Mary's (FF), Georgia vs. Clemson (FF), UTEP

The 13s
Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Kent State

The 14s
Bucknell, Indiana State, St. Peter's, Wofford

The 15s
Morehead State, Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado

The 16s
Boston University, UNC-Asheville, Morgan State vs. McNeese State (FF), Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Alabama State (FF)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
















Questions? Comments? E-mail us at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com or send us a tweet at twitter.com/Bracketology101.

Bracketology 101's Field of 68 - March 11

Thursday Recap
Here's what we learned from Thursday's games:

1. UAB looks like they will be joining Missouri State in the NIT. The regular season champs from Conference USA were unceremoniously dumped by East Carolina in the quarterfinals of the conference tourney on Thursday, and as a result, they fell to the First Four Out list in today's bracket. For the last week, we thought an outright C-USA title might be enough for the Blazers, but we also figured they would make at least the semis of the conference tourney. Losing their first game is a crushing blow, and one that they probably won't recover from. They needed at least one win to help offset a 2-4 record against Memphis, UTEP, Tulsa, and Southern Miss combined.

2. UAB's loss is Virginia Tech's gain. The Hokies have been our First Team out since Monday, but they now slide into the field to take the Blazers' vacated spot. Virginia Tech needs to beat Florida State today to stay in the field on Saturday.

3. Colorado officially owns Kansas State, and the Buffs are probably going dancing as a result. They're still not a lock by any means, but it's probably going to be tough for the selection committee to ignore a third win over the Wildcats, on top of wins over Texas and Missouri. (If only they could have beaten someone out of conference...) Kansas State, meanwhile, falls from the end of the 5 line to the top of the 7 line.

4. The Pac-10 is a mess, and it's probably going to get messier. UCLA got blown out by Oregon to fall from a 7 seed to an 8, Washington needed a second-half comeback to edge Washington State, and USC beat Cal to keep their steadliy improving at-large chances going. A strong case could be made that the Trojans deserve a bid if they beat Arizona today. If they do win, and then beat Washington in the final, will the Pac-10 get four bids? Is Washington in danger if they lose in the final to USC? What happens if the Huskies lose to the Ducks in the semis and USC wins the tourney? Could Washington get squeezed?

5. Michigan State (vs. Iowa), Boston College (vs. Wake Forest), Georgia (vs. Auburn), and Tennessee (vs. Arkansas) are safe - for now - after avoiding what could have been bubble-bursting first-round conference tournament losses. Michigan State moved from the Last Four In list to the bottom of the 11 line.

6. Penn State is also still alive after their win over Indiana. The Nittany Lions need at least a win over Wisconsin today to get in. That win might be enough, it might not, depending on what else happens over the next 48 hours.

7. Kemba Walker vs. Gary McGhee is not a fair fight. What a step-back move. Yikes.

8. Pitt's still a 1 seed. The Panthers won the regular season title in the best league in the country and have nine Top 50 wins. Could Duke really get a 1 seed over Pitt despite finishing second in the ACC and potentially needing to win just one tough game to get to the ACC tourney final?

9. Notre Dame looked an awful lot like a 1 seed and Syracuse looked a lot like a 2 seed. Cincinnati and Marquette looked like teams that knew their jobs in New York were already done.

10. Kansas is good enough to sleepwalk their way through at least one round of the Big XII tournament. Missouri looks destined for an 8/9 game after their quarterfinal loss to Texas A&M. The Aggies, meanwhile, could be a 5 if they beat Texas today.

11. Colorado State's bubble is burst, but New Mexico's is still very much intact. The Lobos beat the Rams 67-61 in the MWC quarters last night, setting up a third meeting with BYU today. New Mexico swept the season series from BYU, and if they can pick up a third win, they would be a very interesting at-large candidate. They'll have to hope three wins over the Cougars cancel out an ugly 8-8 conference record.

12. Kent State (MAC), Long Beach State (Big Sky), and McNeese State (Southland) are still the favorites to win their conference tournaments.

Friday Preview
We'll keep it simple. Here's what every bubble team has to do today:

Colorado - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe, but they will have a long two days of waiting.

New Mexico - Beat BYU (again) and they get serious consideration. They have no chance with a loss.

Penn State - Win and they likely end up on the Last Four In line. They have no chance with a loss.

USC - Win and they will either be the last team in or out. No chance with a loss.

Georgia - Same as Colorado. Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe, but they will have a long two days of waiting.

Alabama - Win and they are fairly safe. Lose and it's tough to imagine scenarios where they don't get squeezed.

Michigan State - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe.

Michigan - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe, but it also depends on what Penn State and Michigan State do.

Boston College - Win and they're in, lose and they're out.

Clemson - Win and they likely will be one of the last teams in, lose and they are done.

Richmond - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should be safe, but it will be a long two days.

Virginia Tech - Win and they are in, lose and they are likely out.

St. Mary's - Nothing really to gain from the Weber State game. They are expected to win big and need to do so.

Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In
St. Mary's, Boston College, Alabama, Virginia Tech

First Four Out
UAB, USC, Clemson, Penn State

Next Four Out
Missouri State, VCU, New Mexico, Memphis

---------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)

America East - Boston University

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, Temple, Richmond

Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, Connecticut, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Marquette, Villanova

Big Sky - Northern Colorado

Big South - UNC-Asheville

Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State

Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri, Colorado

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Old Dominion, George Mason

Conference USA - UTEP

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Princeton

MAAC - St. Peter's

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Bethune-Cookman

MVC - Indiana State

MWC - BYU, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast - Long Island

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama

Southern - Wofford

Southland - McNeese State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC - Texas Southern

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

The 2s
Duke, BYU, Syracuse, Purdue

The 3s
North Carolina, San Diego State, Florida, Texas

The 4s
Louisville, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Connecticut

The 5s
St. John's, Xavier, Arizona, West Virginia

The 6s
Texas A&M, Temple, Georgetown, Cincinnati

The 7s
Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Old Dominion, UNLV

The 8s
Utah State, UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee

The 9s
Missouri, Illinois, Florida State, Marquette

The 10s
Villanova, Gonzaga, Butler, Washington

The 11s
Richmond, Michigan, Georgia, Michigan State

The 12s
Colorado, St. Mary's vs. Boston College (FF), Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (FF), UTEP

The 13s
Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Kent State

The 14s
Bucknell, Indiana State, St. Peter's, Wofford

The 15s
Morehead State, Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado

The 16s
Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State vs. Texas Southern (FF), Bethune-Cookman vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (FF)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
















Questions? Comments? E-mail us at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com or send us a tweet at twitter.com/Bracketology101.

Bracketology 101's Field of 68 - March 10

Wednesday Recap
Here are six things we learned from Wednesday's games:

1. All Big East Tournament games last 40 minutes, except when the referees are tired and just want to go home.

2. The Big East is going to get 11 bids, thanks to Marquette's win over West Virginia. The Golden Eagles are up to a 9 seed in today's bracket.

3. There's a very good chance that Villanova ends up the lowest seeded Big East team.

4. Colorado is the last Big XII bubble team left standing. Baylor and Nebraska are done after losing to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, respectively.

5. If the Buffs want to stay on the right side of the bubble, they probably need to beat Kansas State today - and they definitely need to play better than they did against Iowa State.

6. Long Island (from the Northeast) and Northern Colorado (from the Big Sky) are going dancing. Both are on the 15 line in today's bracket.

Thursday Preview
Today is shaping up to be the biggest day of Championship Week for about a dozen residents of Bubbleville. Just about every major conference has games going on that feature teams fighting for tourney bids.

We'll start in the ACC, where Boston College and Virginia Tech will look to avoid upsets that would surely ensure them of top seeds in the NIT. Both teams will need two wins this week to ensure that their name is called on Sunday, but both will first need to get by ACC bottom feeders Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.

The Big Ten conference tourney also gets started today and features Penn State and Michigan State both playing for their bubble lives. As long as the Spartans avoid an upset against Iowa, they should be safe. Penn State, meanwhile, will need to beat Indiana today and then take down Wisconsin tomorrow to get any serious consideration.

The SEC tourney kicks off today with Georgia looking to take care of Auburn, which would set up another bubble battle against Alabama for tomorrow. Tennessee also needs to take care of Arkansas (who already beat them earlier in the year) in order to avoid being talked about in the same breath as Virginia Tech's and Michigan State on the bubble.

A few weeks ago, it looked like there would be no bubble battles in the Pac-10 tourney. Since then, the bubble has gotten even softer and USC won five of six down the stretch to finish above .500 in conference. Washington State also picked up wins over Washington and USC to keep their name in the mix. USC faces off with Cal today (who can also climb onto the bubble with a win), and if the Trojans can pick up the win, they will be in decent shape for a bid. A win over Arizona on Friday would likely lock down their spot. If Washington State is able to take down Washington for the third time this season, that could create an interesting scenario and potentially put Washington in danger.

Elsewhere on the bubble, Colorado will attempt to take down Kansas State for the third time this season and, in the process, solidify their tourney bid. In the MWC, Colorado State faces off against New Mexico in what is an at-large elimination game. In C-USA action, UAB needs to avoid an upset at the hands of East Carolina to stay in the at-large mix. If they do that, we like their chances to go dancing. Memphis, meanwhile, opens up with Southern Miss. The Tigers will need a deep tourney run (probably a trip to the finals) to get at-lare worthy. Fans of bubble teams throughout the country need to root hard against UTEP this week. The Miners are playing the C-USA tourney on their home floor, where they went 16-2 this year, and are looking like the best bid-stealer candidate left out there.

Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In
Michigan State, Alabama, Boston College, Colorado

First Four Out
Virginia Tech, Clemson, USC, Missouri State

Next Four Out
Penn State, VCU, Colorado State, Washington State

---------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (4), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), Conference USA (2), WCC (2)

America East - Boston University

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, Temple, Richmond

Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's, Connecticut, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova

Big Sky - Northern Colorado

Big South - UNC-Asheville

Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State

Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Old Dominion, George Mason

Conference USA - UTEP, UAB

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Princeton

MAAC - St. Peter's

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Bethune-Cookman

MVC - Indiana State

MWC - BYU, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast - Long Island

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama

Southern - Wofford

Southland - McNeese State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC - Texas Southern

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

The 2s
Duke, BYU, Syracuse, Purdue

The 3s
North Carolina, San Diego State, Florida, Texas

The 4s
Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John's, Kentucky

The 5s
Connecticut, Xavier, Arizona, Kansas State

The 6s
West Virginia, Cincinnati, Temple, Texas A&M

The 7s
Georgetown, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Old Dominion

The 8s
UNLV, Missouri, Utah State, George Mason

The 9s
Illinois, Florida State, Tennessee, Marquette

The 10s
Villanova, Gonzaga, Butler, Washington

The 11s
Richmond, Michigan, Georgia, St. Mary's

The 12s
UAB, Michigan State vs. Alabama (FF), Boston College vs. Colorado (FF), UTEP

The 13s
Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Kent State

The 14s
Bucknell, Indiana State, St. Peter's, Wofford

The 15s
Morehead State, Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado

The 16s
Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State vs. Texas Southern (FF), Bethune-Cookman vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (FF)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
















Questions? Comments? E-mail us at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com or send us a tweet at twitter.com/Bracketology101.