Bracketology 101's Field of 68 - Feb. 28

Just when it looked like the bubble couldn't get any weaker, Upset Saturday struck again.

In a span of 12 hours, Virginia Tech knocked off top-ranked Duke, Colorado had a second half for the ages and stunned Texas, Kansas State and Baylor beat ranked opponents at home, Alabama lost at Mississippi, Minnesota lost - again - this time at home to Michigan, Memphis got obliterated at UTEP, Colorado State lost at Air Force (Air Force?!), and Nebraska lost at Iowa State (Iowa State??!!) By the end of the night, our 10-12 lines were in shambles, and we were left to sift through some of the worst at-large resumes we can remember to try to fill a 68-team field.

Ultimately, we decided on the following changes: Minnesota, Boston College, Colorado State, and Nebraska dropped out, and Virginia Tech, Michigan, Colorado, and Baylor jumped in. Nebraska was the easiest team to take out because the Huskers are now eighth in the Big XII pecking order. Colorado State was an easy removal as well because we don't give them much of a chance to win at San Diego State this week. Minnesota has the best wins of the four teams we took out, but they are in complete free-fall mode right now. The Gophers need to win their last two games just to get to 8-10 in conference, and even then, they'll probably have to get to the Big Ten final to get an at-large. BC was done in by their brutal home loss to Miami and the fact that they have to play at Virginia Tech on Tuesday. If they lose that game, which we think they will, they'll finish at best 8-8 in conference, which won't be enough.

Replacing those four teams in the bracket was a struggle. We wanted to include a bid-stealer for at least one of the open spots, but incredibly - in a year with three more at-large spots available and an awful bubble - there are just no bid-stealers out there right now. We don't like Missouri State's chances to get an at-large if they lose in the MVC final, and Conference USA is such a mess right now that the regular season champ probably won't be worthy of an at-large (if needed) down the road, either. The only bid-stealer possibility that we gave serious consideration to was the Horizon getting two bids (Milwaukee as the automatic and Butler an at-large). In the end, though, we stuck with the resurgent Bulldogs as our pick to win the Horizon tourney, and left the league with just one bid.

With no bid-stealers available, we had to pick from a group of teams with a lot of warts and a lot of work left to do. Virginia Tech was the easiest inclusion because of their win over the Blue Devils and their upcoming home game against BC. Michigan made the cut, despite their loss at home to Wisconsin on Wednesday, because we think they have a decent chance to beat Michigan State at home this weekend and then win their first Big Ten tourney game. Colorado made the cut because, after their upset of the Longhorns, the Buffs have five Top 50 wins overall and four Top 50 wins in conference. Their season sweep of Kansas State is huge, and their final two games (at Iowa State, vs. Nebraska) are very winnable. A 9-7 finish, even with an OOC SOS of 323, should put Colorado on the right side of the bubble heading into the Big XII tournament.

Our fourth at-large hole was filled by Baylor, who completed a season sweep of A&M on Saturday night to get back to .500 in conference. The Bears' final two games are both tough - at Oklahoma State and at home against Texas - but we think they have an outside chance to win both, especially with the Gameday crew coming to town over the weekend. If they split those two games, they'll have to make a deep run in the Big XII tournament to get back in the mix for a bid. Finally, in a decision that will surely cause some spirited debate in the comment section this week, we kept Alabama in the bracket as our last team in. We really can't defend the Tide's overall profile (two Top 50 wins, an 89 RPI), but we still think that if they finish 12-4, especially on this bubble, that the committee will give them a bid. Until 12-4 is mathematically impossible, we're sticking with them.

Elsewhere in the bracket, there was a change on the 1 line as BYU replaces Duke. The Cougars are likely going to have to win the MWC tourney to get a 1 seed, but given the way they played in front of a raucous SDSU crowd on Saturday, we think they can do that. In other changes to the top quarter of the bracket, SDSU fell from a 2 to a 3, Florida fell from a 3 to a 4, Louisville climbed from a 4 to a 3, and St. John's and North Carolina both went from 5s to 4s. The biggest upgrades of the week were BYU (who moved from a 3 to a 1), Syracuse (from a 5 to a 3), Kansas State (from an 11 to an 8), and Marquette (from am 11 to a 9). The biggest downgrade was Georgetown (from a 3 to a 5).

Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In
Michigan, Colorado, Baylor, Alabama

First Four Out
Boston College, Penn State, UAB, Colorado State

Next Four Out
Clemson, Memphis, USC, Minnesota

"First Four" Games
Michigan vs. Colorado, Baylor vs. Alabama, Murray State vs. Bethune-Cookman, Texas Southern vs. McNeese State

---------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (7), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (4), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)

America East - Vermont

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, Temple, Richmond

Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, St. John's, Connecticut, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette

Big Sky - Northern Colorado

Big South - Coastal Carolina

Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan

Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Colorado, Baylor

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - George Mason, Old Dominion

Conference USA - Southern Miss

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Princeton

MAAC - Fairfield

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Bethune Cookman

MVC - Missouri State

MWC - BYU, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast - Long Island

Ohio Valley - Murray State

Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama

Southern - Charleston

Southland - McNeese State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic

SWAC - Texas Southern

WAC - Utah State

WCC - St. Mary's, Gonzaga

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, BYU

The 2s
Duke, Notre Dame, Purdue, Texas

The 3s
Louisville, Wisconsin, Syracuse, San Diego State

The 4s
St. John's, Florida, Connecticut, North Carolina

The 5s
Georgetown, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Villanova

The 6s
Xavier, Texas A&M, Arizona, West Virginia

The 7s
Missouri, Temple, UCLA, UNLV

The 8s
Cincinnati, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State

The 9s
Utah State, Marquette, Florida State, Illinois

The 10s
Tennessee, Georgia, Michigan State, Washington

The 11s
Richmond, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech

The 12s
Butler, Michigan vs. Colorado (FF), Baylor vs. Alabama (FF), Southern Miss

The 13s
Missouri State, Princeton, Belmont, Oakland

The 14s
Charleston, Coastal Carolina, Bucknell, Fairfield

The 15s
Vermont, Kent State, Long Beach State, Long Island

The 16s
Florida Atlantic, Northern Colorado, Murray State vs. Bethune Cookman (FF), Texas Southern vs. McNeese State (FF)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
















Questions? Comments? E-mail us at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com or send us a tweet at twitter.com/Bracketology101.

B101's Questions For The Weekend

Here's what we're wondering heading into this weekend's games:

Saturday's Games
Who would have ever thought the best game of the year, based on RPI, would be between San Diego State and BYU? When was the last regular season game between two top 4 RPI teams?

If the winner of SDSU-BYU wins out, what's the percent chance they get a 1 seed?

Can Virginia Tech jump into the bracket (for good?) with a win over Duke in Blacksburg?

Can Texas avoid a second straight weekend loss to a Big XII bubble team? (Is Colorado still a bubble team...?)

Will Georgetown (vs. Syracuse) or Villanova (vs. St. John's) go 0-2 at home this week?

Can Arizona complete a season sweep of UCLA? Can Florida do the same to Kentucky?

Will Kansas State cement its spot in the bracket with a home win over Missouri?

Is Baylor done? Is there any chance the Bears upset Texas A&M in Waco to stay in the hunt for an at-large?

Did VCU and BC see their at-large bubbles burst this week? Can they bounce back with wins over James Madison and Virginia?

Does Minnesota still deserve a bid even if they beat Michigan at home? How will the Wolverines play in the wake of Wednesday's brutal buzzer-beating loss to Wisconsin?

Was Wednesday night's beatdown at Maryland a blip on the radar for Florida State, or is it a sign of things to come? Can the 'Noles take care of Miami at home?

Did Alabama really need a last second tip-in to beat Auburn? Can they shake off that awful performance and win at Mississippi?

Is Gonzaga in the bracket for good after their enormous win at St. Mary's? Can they do what the Gaels could not do and win at San Diego?

Will a trip to the WCC final be enough for St. Mary's to get in?

Should the loser of Wichita State at Missouri State start printing NIT tickets?

Is winning a share of the Horizon regular season title enough to get Butler an at-large?

Could Conference USA be more of a mess? If Memphis hands UTEP its third loss of the week, will it be hard to deny the Tigers an at-large?

Can UAB and Southern Miss stay alive in the race for the C-USA regular season title with road wins over Houston and UCF?

Can Vanderbilt and Temple win on the road and avoid 0-2 weeks?

Will Nebraska keep its slim at-large hopes alive with a road win at Iowa State?

Will a win at Air Force be enough to keep Colorado State in the bracket on Monday?

Can Utah State avoid a season sweep at the hands of Idaho?

Sunday's Games
Does Pitt need to win at Louisville to stay on the 1 line?

If Michigan State beats Purdue, is there any chance they don't get an at-large?

If UConn loses at Cincinnati, will the Bearcats have a better seed than the Huskies on Monday?

Can Maryland win at North Carolina? Will one Top 50 win be enough for them to climb into the bracket?

Can West Virginia avoid an upset at Rutgers (and the big seed drop that would follow)?

Marquette picked up a ticket-punching win at UConn this week; they couldn't possibly give their ticket back by losing at home to Providence, right?

B101's Bracket Banter - Thursday

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

Thursday's Games
After a night of upsets (Kentucky, BC), buzzer beaters (Wisconsin), bubbles burst (Nebraska, UTEP, VCU), and dance cards punched (Cincinnati), Thursday night is setting up to be much less exciting.

Easily the biggest bubble battle of the night is out West, with Gonzaga visiting St. Mary's. The Gaels looked like a sure thing just two weeks ago, but since then they have dropped games to lowly San Diego and to fellow mid-major power Utah State. Their OOC win over St. John's keeps looking better and better, but other than that, there isn't too much else on their resume. A win tonight would give them the WCC regular season title, which should be enough for a bid. Gonzaga's at-large hopes have been helped by St. Mary's recent struggles, and a win for them tonight will likely lead to a share of the conference title. That very well could be their only hope for an at-large, since they will end up with double-digit losses and an RPI in the mid-70s.

Back East, the biggest games are in the Big East with West Virginia playing at Pittsburgh and Marquette playing at UConn. The Huskies will be without Jim Calhoun on the sidelines as they face a Golden Eagles team looking to solidify their spot in the bracket. Marquette has three Top 25 wins, which is more than any other bubble team can claim, but those wins all have come at home. A win at UConn would pretty much stamp their ticket and would make 11 Big East bids almost a certainty. West Virginia, meanwhile, will be looking to upset another Top 10 team after their huge home win over Notre Dame this past weekend, while Pitt will be looking to bounce back from their loss to the Red Storm. The Mountaineers need a strong finish to end up in the top eight of the Big East standings and avoid having to play on the first day of the Big East tourney.

Elsewhere in Mid-Majorville, Old Dominion visits James Madison and Milwaukee takes on Cleveland State. The Monarchs likely just need to win their final two regular season games to be an absolute lock heading into the CAA tourney. Cleveland State likely destroyed their chances for an at large in losing their BracketBuster game to ODU over the weekend, and if they want to stay in the discussion, they must win their last two and win the Horizon regular season conference title. That title is also important because it would give them home court advantage throughout the conference tourney.

Also keep an eye on: Georgia at Florida, Penn State at Northwestern, Northeastern at George Mason, Arizona State at UCLA, Arizona at USC

B101's Bracket Banter - Wednesday

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

--------
Interested in NCAAB Betting? Go to BetUS.com today!
--------

Wednesday's Games
It's going to be a busy night in Bubbleville, as two teams on our Last Four In list and four teams on our First Eight Out list are in action.

The biggest bubble battle of the night takes place in Lincoln, where bracket newcomer Nebraska hosts Kansas State. The game is essentially a must-win for the Huskers, who will need to finish 9-7 in conference and win at least one Big XII tournament game to be position for an at-large. It's hard to see them getting to 9-7 if they don't win tonight, considering they have two tricky road games (at Iowa State and at Colorado) and a home game against Missouri left. Kansas State can probably get a bid with an 8-8 finish and one Big XII tourney win, and if they come away victorious tonight, that mark is very attainable.

The other game tonight involving a Last Four In team is Colorado State at BYU. The Rams missed out on a huge opportunity on Saturday by losing at home to UNLV, and as a result, they need to go at least 2-2 down the stretch to have any chance of an at-large. We certainly don't expect them to beat the Jimmers on the road, but we do expect them to win at Air Force on Saturday. A good showing tonight (even in a loss) would give them some much-needed momentum heading into the weekend.

Of the four games involving teams just off the bubble, the most intriguing is Wisconsin at Michigan. The Wolverine faithful have hijacked our poll questions the last couple of weeks in support of their team, but all of those mouse clicks won't mean anything if Michigan doesn't take care of business in its two remaining home games. A 3-0 finish would get Michigan on the right side of the bubble heading into the Big Ten tournament; a 2-1 mark means they'll have to win two Big Ten tourney games to be in the mix.

In other Last Eight Out action, Baylor plays at Missouri, Boston College hosts Miami, and VCU plays at Drexel. The Bears' final four games are brutal, which makes their loss over the weekend to Texas Tech all the more crushing. They'll need two wins down the stretch to stay alive for an at-large. BC has now lost five of its last seven and needs a win over the Hurricanes tonight to stay in the bracket on Monday, and VCU needs to keep winning games period to keep the Colonial's dream of three bids alive. The Rams wrap up their regular season this week with tonight's tricky road game against the Dragons and a home game against James Madison on Saturday. If they finish 2-0 and make the Colonial final, they will be one of the toughest calls to make on Selection Sunday.

The three other must-watch games of the night are Temple at Duke, Cincinnati at Georgetown, and Florida State at Maryland. The Blue Devils moved up to the 1 line in our bracket this week, and they'll remain there on Monday provided they don't slip up at home against the Owls tonight or at Virginia Tech on Saturday. Cincinnati and Florida State, meanwhile, are in pretty similar positions with to weeks to go in the regular season. The Bearcats will get an at-large if they can win two of their final four games (at Georgetown, UConn, at Marquette, Georgetown). If they go 1-3, they'll have to win two Big East tournament games to feel completely safe. The 'Noles need two wins in their final four games to be a lock, and will need two ACC tournament wins to feel totally safe if they finish 1-3.

Also keep an eye on: Notre Dame at Providence, Purdue at Indiana, Oklahoma at Texas A&M, North Carolina at North Carolina State, DePaul at St. John's, Kentucky at Arkansas, Auburn at Alabama, UNLV at New Mexico, UTEP at East Carolina, Creighton at Wichita State, Missouri State at Southern Illinois