B101's Bold Prediction No. 13

No. 13: These Guys Will Be Dancing By Themselves
We’ve already broken down all of the multiple bid leagues, so it’s about time we give a little love to the little guys – the leagues who will only be sending one team to the dance. Some of these leagues are perennial one-bid leagues; others are mid-majors who won’t have two bid-worthy teams this season.

Our Bold Prediction No. 13 is that the following 21 conferences earn one NCAA tournament bid this season. We’ve broken down these one-bid leagues into the best and the rest.

The Best of the One-Bid Leagues
Big South
Winthrop
It was incredible to see how many people picked Winthrop over Notre Dame when last year’s brackets were announced, and the Eagles rewarded everyone with a thrilling upset of the Irish. The 2007-2008 version of Winthrop isn’t as strong as last year’s team (they’ll actually lose a conference game or two this season), but the Eagles are still head and shoulders above the rest of the league and should be no lower than a 13 seed when the final brackets are announced.

Conference USA
Memphis
The Tigers have lost a grand total of one (yes, one) conference game over the last three years, and it’s fairly safe to say that number will stay at one through this season. Houston is probably the league’s second best team, and has the OOC schedule (Arizona, Kentucky) to build a potentially good resume. But the Cougars aren’t that much better than UAB, which underperformed in Mike Davis’ rookie season, or Southern Miss, which even coach Larry Eustachy admits is a year away from contending. Maybe C-USA can crack the two-bid league list next season. For now, they are left to root for Memphis to bring home a national title.

Horizon
Butler
After a phenomenal start to the year, Butler struggled late in the season and had us scratching our heads when they were still rewarded with a five seed in the NCAA tournament. The committee must have known something – the Bulldogs made the Sweet 16 and busted up more than a few brackets along the way. Coach Todd Lickliter left in the off-season for Iowa, but stud guards A.J. Graves and Mike Green are back and are primed to return Butler to the dance. The Bulldogs shouldn’t have as tough a time as they did at the end of last season – bid-stealing Wright State is down and no one else is close to Butler in terms of talent – and they should be able to earn themselves another single-digit seed on Selection Sunday.

Mountain West
BYU
The MWC is a mediocre mess that’s nearly impossible to predict at this point in the pre-season, but at least one thing is clear – the league is only getting one bid this season. UNLV still has Lon Kruger, but they don’t have Kevin Kruger, which means they’ll take a step back, and San Diego State, the MWC’s third best team last season, lost everyone and will fall back to the middle of the pack. BYU and New Mexico are the two best teams on paper heading into the year, and although it’s tempting to pick the now-Steve Alford-led Lobos to win the conference title, it’s hard to ignore New Mexico’s 4-12 conference mark a year ago. BYU lost MWC MVP Keena Young, but are still very strong up front and should be the league’s top rebounding team. The MWC race will be tight all year, but expect the Cougars to be dancing in the end.

Southern
Davidson
All aboard the Davidson bandwagon, folks. Seats are filling up fast. The Wildcats have more pre-season pub than any other small conference team, and that’s thanks in large part to their 29-win season a year ago and the fact that they managed to put together one of the best OOC schedules in the country. The Wildcats play at North Carolina, at Duke, at UCLA, and at North Carolina State. Remember Butler last season? That’s what Davidson’s shooting for this season – win a couple of huge road games early and then ride those wins to a single-digit seed in the NCAA tourney. The Wildcats’ schedule may be brutal, but it’s too full of opportunities, and this team is too good talent-wise (it’s top 10 scorers, led by Stephen Curry, are back) to bet against them. We’re on board with Davidson. Who’s with us? Or better yet, who’s not?

West Coast
Gonzaga
With Josh Heytvelt back (insert mushroom joke here), Gonzaga should have no problems running away with the WCC and returning to national prominence this season. Matt Bouldin showed to have a little Adam Morrison in him last season (not just hair-wise) and guard Jeremy Pargo got better as the year went on. Mark Few also welcomes the best recruiting class in school history, led by juco transfer Ira Brown. The Zags will be a top-15 team to start the year, and won’t move much from that spot all season. Expect a top-5 seed in the NCAA tourney.

The Rest of the One-Bid Leagues
America East – Vermont
Atlantic Sun – East Tennessee State
Big Sky – Montana
Big West – UC-Santa Barbara
Ivy – Cornell
MAAC – Siena
MAC – Akron
MEAC – Delaware State
Northeast – Sacred Heart
Ohio Valley – Austin Peay
Patriot – Holy Cross
Southland – Texas A&M-CC
Summit – IUPUI
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky
SWAC – Arkansas-Pine Bluff

B101's Bold Prediction No. 14

No. 14: The WAC's Still Wacky
As we discussed in Bold Prediction No. 24, we fully expect another crazy season this year in the WAC. With Nevada vulnerable, any number of teams are primed to take over the mantle as the WAC's best team.

How do we see the WAC playing out? Our in-depth analysis of the conference can be found here.

In short, our Bold Prediction No. 14 is that the WAC will be a two-bid league with New Mexico State as a 10 seed, and bid-stealer Utah State as a 13.

B101's Bold Prediction No. 15

No. 15: The Colonial’s Not Dead Yet
Over the past two years, no one has jumped on the Colonial bandwagon more than we have. That faith cost us dearly last year, when the committee ignored its own criteria for mid-majors to get an at-large bid (go and beat someone out of conference) and snubbed the Dragons despite upsets of Syracuse, Villanova, and Creighton.

As a new season tips-off, we refuse to let the committee’s actions last March, or some pre-season projections that the league is finally on the decline, cloud our opinion of what we feel again will be one of the most dangerous mid-majors in the country. Yes, the middle-tier of the conference is weak (Hofstra, Drexel, and Old Dominion – last year’s at-large from the Colonial, will all take a step back this year), but the top of the league is talented enough and has scheduled well enough to again earn the Colonial two bids.

The key to this two-big projection is VCU. The Commodores not only return star Eric Maynor and a ton of confidence taken from last year’s tourney upset of Duke, but they also have a decent enough OOC schedule to impress the committee down the road. VCU plays at Maryland, at Bradley and home against Houston all before Christmas and with a decent Bracket Buster win thrown in later on, the Commodores, provided they win most of those games, should be in good shape. Remember, ODU got in last year on the coattails of its early-season win over Georgetown. VCU should be able to do they same with Maryland and Co.

The second Colonial team dancing will be the team that shot the league to stardom in the first place – George Mason. Two years removed from its miraculous Final Four run, the Patriots return Will Thomas, Dre Smith, and Folarin Campbell and should be in a dogfight with VCU all season for the conference title. Where Mason will earn its bid, though, is in the conference tourney. Their OOC schedule is too weak to warrant at-large consideration (their only notable game is at Kansas State), but the Patriots are certainly tournament tested, and we think that they will beat VCU in the Colonial final to earn a return trip to the dance.

To sum up, despite reports to the contrary, the honeymoon period for the Colonial is not over quite yet. Our Bold Prediction No. 15 is that the league will earn two bids this season: VCU as a 10 and George Mason as a 12.

B101's Bold Prediction No. 16

No. 16: Peak Is Over For The Valley
No conference was more difficult to figure out as the season went on last year than the MVC. At one point in late January, five (yeah, five) teams from the Valley made one of our brackets (Southern Illinois, Crieghton, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, and Indiana State). There was so much parody in the league midway through last season, that it was impossible to predict who would be standing come March. Eventually, though, the picture got a lot clearer: Indiana State lost 14 of its last 16 games, Northern Iowa faded fast after its 13-2 start, and Missouri State lost its Bracket Buster game to Winthrop before getting crushed by Creighton in the MVC tournament.

As it turned out, only two Valley teams – the Salukis and the Arch Madness-winning Bluejays – made the Final Field of 65. Missouri State, for what seems like the millionth straight year, was one of the tougher calls come Selection Sunday, but ultimately was on our Next Four Out list and missed the dance.

This year, as another season begins, the Valley is again one of the most dangerous and most unpredictable mid-major leagues in the country. That doesn’t mean, however, that the league will produce the quality of teams it has in previous years. Five head coaches and a lot of talented seniors have moved on, and besides favorite Southern Illinois, the league is a giant question mark.

Over the course of this year, you can expect lots of fluidity in the MVC, but in the end, we believe that the league is strong enough and has a good enough reputation (three Sweet 16 teams in the last two years) to earn multiple bids. The league’s unpredictability could be beneficial come conference tourney time, if someone can find a way to knock off the Salukis and earn the automatic bid.

With all that said, our Bold Prediction No. 16 is that the Valley takes a few steps back this season (no Field of 65 with four and five teams in it), but ultimately ends up with two teams dancing: Southern Illinois as a 5 and Bradley, thanks to some talented juco transfers and a senior backcourt, as an automatic bid-stealing 12.