tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post6030367686775776512..comments2024-01-27T06:41:13.204-05:00Comments on Bracketology 101: B101's Questions For The CompetitionBracketology 101http://www.blogger.com/profile/01277396896660963269noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-54544197271816677272013-03-17T17:10:20.746-05:002013-03-17T17:10:20.746-05:00[p]Yet, continually exert understanding with regar...[p]Yet, continually exert understanding with regards to an internet site . This [url=http://www.fashionhermesbagsuk.co.uk]discount hermes bags kelly[/url] kind of bag is a well-known name within the industry of designer bags . If this suit isn't going to fits completely, you should not fret about it, I have ability to cope with the make a difference is only the Herve Leger gown which can be a bit of cake . 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It's supposed to be a body of work resume, so, the theory is that, the game titles throughout Nov would likely every count just <br /><a href="http://www.mmolive.de/" rel="nofollow">Diablo 3 Gold kaufen</a>as much as games in March.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-78835656824574941592011-02-23T17:14:56.846-05:002011-02-23T17:14:56.846-05:00I don't think margin of victory should matter,...I don't think margin of victory should matter, at least not that much. <br /><br />I know this is a minimal sample, but look at Butler in the tourney last year--they beat UTEP by 18, but then over their next five games (including the Duke loss) the margin of victory wasn't any greater than seven. The point is, they still GOT THE WIN. <br /><br />Then a team like, say, Kentucky, who blew out everyone in their first three games, loses when they play a close one against West Virginia.<br /><br />Obviously that's just a random example that probably doesn't carry much weight, but I'd almost argue having more close wins is better, since that's a more battle-tested team.Joe Kerrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-81987238251445807872011-02-23T12:14:48.245-05:002011-02-23T12:14:48.245-05:00In order to get a truly accurate rating system, ma...In order to get a truly accurate rating system, margin of victory MUST be included. I would suggest putting an upper limit of 20 points (no more credit for wins by more than 20 points).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-89367163055229973422011-02-23T08:46:00.403-05:002011-02-23T08:46:00.403-05:00It's not just comparing Ohio St to Iowa. Anyo...It's not just comparing Ohio St to Iowa. Anyone can see the differences there without even considering margin of victory.<br /><br />Read the first part. About not picking UNC and going with Kansas because UNC had alot of close wins as opposed to Kansas. Sure enough Kansas won the title that year. Now obviously UNC was a great team and they still could have won the title but in terms of who the safer bet was they went with the team that had the better margin of victory. And thats one example.<br /><br />This isn't really about determining who's better between 1 and 68 but rather 1 and 2 and 2 and 3. Obviously there's more things to look at. I would never suggest just looking at this and concluding one team is better then the other. But to completely ignore data is wrong.<br /><br />It's not surprising that others feel this way. Thats why teams get underrated and overrated all the time.TheAnswer1313https://www.blogger.com/profile/09114078203031484534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-47641395686712711412011-02-22T21:55:03.437-05:002011-02-22T21:55:03.437-05:00"In fact, look at the NCAA winners the past 1..."In fact, look at the NCAA winners the past 10 years...look at their margin of victory....compare it to other teams. It most certainly means alot."<br /><br />it means a lot if you are comparing ohio st to iowa. it doesn't mean anything when you are comparing ohio st to kansas.<br /><br />are you surprised that the ncaa champions have better margins of victory than most other teams? do they have the best margins of victory? no.<br /><br />i beg to differ about teams rarely pissing away huge leads. yes, you don't see a team empty its bench with 10 minutes to go in a blow, but you usually see them liberally rotating in bench guys and resting starters. you also see a team with a huge lead often playing stall ball or practicing different offenses and defenses, which causes the lead to dwindle.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14528272793562071068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-11653559137044385992011-02-22T21:46:56.430-05:002011-02-22T21:46:56.430-05:00the study in the article you posted really is a bu...the study in the article you posted really is a bunch of bunk. they looked at ncaa basketball games over 4 seasons in which teams played each other twice. i assume that most of such pairings were home/away conference games. its conclusion was that because the team that wins the first game isn't more likely to win the second game, there is no such thing as a "clutch" team. it also found that if a team wins by 20 the first game, it has a greater than 50% chance of winning the 2nd game. this isn't very surprising because (1) the home court is an enormous advantage so the home team usually will win in conference play and (2) if one team is much better than the other, it doesn't matter where they play. it definitely doesn't prove that margin of victory indicates which team is better.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14528272793562071068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-27115517640812199542011-02-22T21:40:09.353-05:002011-02-22T21:40:09.353-05:00The RPI is by far the WORST model out there at mea...The RPI is by far the WORST model out there at measuring how good teams are. If you honestly believe differently, then this article will explain why you are wrong better than I can:<br /><br />http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/rpi.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-65330335371377749332011-02-22T21:04:44.623-05:002011-02-22T21:04:44.623-05:00Glad to see the Horizon debate about Butler is sti...Glad to see the Horizon debate about Butler is still raging in here...!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-34014328536733797732011-02-22T20:44:02.780-05:002011-02-22T20:44:02.780-05:00I agree to an extent but margin of victory isn'...I agree to an extent but margin of victory isn't just about predicting the future.<br /><br />I mean it all depends on what your wanting. The teams with the most wins might not be the better team.<br /><br />IMO it's about sending the BEST 37 or so at large teams.<br /><br />I'm just not so certain that just because one team has more wins against the same schedule, that they are the better team. I hate to say this but its true with all sports......luck does play a role in things....that's why I hate looking at wins/losses only. <br /><br />I think you look at as much data as possible and then make the decision (w/l, margin of victory, rpi, kenpom, sargarin, who you beat, where you beat them etc.)TheAnswer1313https://www.blogger.com/profile/09114078203031484534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-16544825496470952942011-02-22T19:43:17.410-05:002011-02-22T19:43:17.410-05:00I agree that margin of victory can be used as an a...I agree that margin of victory can be used as an aid to rate teams. The question is whether or not it ought to be. <br /><br />Predicting future results isn't what's important in selecting tournament teams. What's important is evaluating past performance. And ultimately, all that matters in that evaluation process is who you play and whether you win or lose. <br /><br />I wouldn't want some widely inconsistent team to get a bid over a more consistent team, simply because the former had more blowout wins against the same schedule. <br /><br />If two teams play the exact same schedule, I'll take the one with more wins, every time. <br /><br />If two teams play the same schedule, I could care less which one had a better point differential or which one beat more "top 50" teams. All I care about is which one had the better record.Todd Lucashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01121569810897361036noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-4816847850874389152011-02-22T18:44:50.190-05:002011-02-22T18:44:50.190-05:00Also your thing about playing the bench shouldn...Also your thing about playing the bench shouldn't matter a great deal. First off, how many times do you see the bench play significant minutes? Even in blowouts I rarely see teams empty the bench with significant time remaining. Yes so a 25 pt lead might turn into a 15 pt win.....that's still better then a 5 pt win.<br /><br />The great majority of teams unload their benches at the same time during blowouts so IMO the effect is small on the overall season results.TheAnswer1313https://www.blogger.com/profile/09114078203031484534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-12017541304806699972011-02-22T18:41:32.557-05:002011-02-22T18:41:32.557-05:00One last thought,
You need to consider strength o...One last thought,<br /><br />You need to consider strength of schedule obviously. A 30 pt win over Depaul isn't the same as a 30pt win over Pittsburgh lol.<br /><br />Actually this is exactly what Ken Pomeroy does with his rankings. I'm oversimpliying it but basically its margin of victory but adjusting it for SOS. <br /><br /><br />But it's cool that people think margin of victory doesnt matter. It just means I make more and more money when I do my brackets :)TheAnswer1313https://www.blogger.com/profile/09114078203031484534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-48478297882676085042011-02-22T18:31:42.868-05:002011-02-22T18:31:42.868-05:00http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/17/sports/ncaabaske...http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/17/sports/ncaabasketball/17score.html?_r=1&scp=6&sq=NCAA%20RPI%20North&st=cse<br /><br />Theres one.TheAnswer1313https://www.blogger.com/profile/09114078203031484534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-11971558615252455412011-02-22T18:25:33.841-05:002011-02-22T18:25:33.841-05:00You misunderstood.
1. By true talent I simply mea...You misunderstood.<br /><br />1. By true talent I simply mean the better team (not necessarily the ones with the most mcds).<br /><br />2. There's been studies on this in EVERY SPORT. In baseball you could look at runs scored and runs allowed as a better indictor of future performance than W/L record. This is the very same thing in basketball. I'll see if I can find a link later.<br /><br />3. The 15 was just an example. Obviously an NCAA team with 15 losses isn't blowing out many people so maybe my numbers I used were bad in these circumstances.<br /><br />So your trying to tell me that if Team A won by 25 over Team B and Team C won by 5 over Team B, you'd treat each as the same?<br /><br />Thats ridiculous. But that's what your doing by totallying excluding margin of victory.<br /><br />Now obviously u get to a point of diminishing returns. A 20 point victory is far better then 10 point but is a 40 point win that much more impressive than say a 30 point one? So eventually you get to a point where it matters less and less which is why I suppose you could cap it (just so that teams don't purposely run it up).<br /><br />In fact, look at the NCAA winners the past 10 years...look at their margin of victory....compare it to other teams. It most certainly means alot.TheAnswer1313https://www.blogger.com/profile/09114078203031484534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-20415447311169193912011-02-22T17:40:00.411-05:002011-02-22T17:40:00.411-05:00I'm waiting to hear how a team with 15 losses ...I'm waiting to hear how a team with 15 losses is blowing everyone out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-86751466173064800302011-02-22T16:58:47.541-05:002011-02-22T16:58:47.541-05:00"In fact, studies have shown that margin of v..."In fact, studies have shown that margin of victory is far more indicative of true talent then actual W/L record."<br /><br />give me a break. one, what "studies"? two, who cares about talent? so should we just seed based on who has the most mcd AAs on their rosters?<br /><br />margin of victory is so flawed it's ridiculous. as i wrote earlier, there are so many variables that do not get accounted for (eg, playing the bench in a blowout). also, how would you account for bc losing by 32 to unc AT HOME and then going on the road and losing to the same unc team (no major injuries) by 2 on the road 18 days later?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14528272793562071068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-74317591505401126772011-02-22T16:50:52.223-05:002011-02-22T16:50:52.223-05:00Margin of victory should certainly be included.
I...Margin of victory should certainly be included.<br /><br />In fact, studies have shown that margin of victory is far more indicative of true talent then actual W/L record.<br /><br /><br />To protect from what others were saying you can put a cap on it so that teams aren't encouraged to "run it up".<br /><br />If I have two teams and one is 25-10 and the other is 20-15 but the 25 win team is barely winning games meanwhile the 20 win team is blowing everyone out, I'm taking the 20 win team all things being equal.<br /><br />To just ignore margin of victory your leaving out a huge portion of data.TheAnswer1313https://www.blogger.com/profile/09114078203031484534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-47561043184461033942011-02-22T16:05:48.065-05:002011-02-22T16:05:48.065-05:00Clemson should be getting more consideration. They...Clemson should be getting more consideration. They have beat 4 teams in Joe Lundardi field. FSU,Long Beach St.,BC and VT.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-88035867656237586892011-02-22T15:59:14.700-05:002011-02-22T15:59:14.700-05:00The NCAA using any ratings system that included po...The NCAA using any ratings system that included point spreads would only enourage teams to run up the score.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-37193323776895707372011-02-22T15:53:20.677-05:002011-02-22T15:53:20.677-05:00Jerry Palm now projecting UAB in along with Memphi...Jerry Palm now projecting UAB in along with Memphis from CUSA.<br /><br />Palm's Last 4 in...<br /><br />- Richmond<br />- Michigan<br />- VCU<br />- Gonzaga<br /><br />Palm's Last 4 out...<br /><br />- Dayton<br />- Drexel<br />- Marquette<br />- Southern MissAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-64532683199038947622011-02-22T15:41:30.208-05:002011-02-22T15:41:30.208-05:00margin of victory should not be used because there...margin of victory should not be used because there are too many other factors that it doesn't account for. for example, why should a team that goes up by 30 in the 2nd half get penalized for emptying its bench and letting the backups play if the final margin of victory winds up only being 15 points?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14528272793562071068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-20800015976394428682011-02-22T15:39:47.891-05:002011-02-22T15:39:47.891-05:00I dont think they use Sargarin nearly at all.
In ...I dont think they use Sargarin nearly at all.<br /><br />In fact its listed as "other reference materials" so the numbers (along with Kenpom) are available for use but from what I've heard people hardly ever use them.TheAnswer1313https://www.blogger.com/profile/09114078203031484534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-66383318344640891472011-02-22T15:37:43.814-05:002011-02-22T15:37:43.814-05:00Looking at the ELO...
Memphis (43)
UAB (48)
Bosto...Looking at the ELO...<br /><br />Memphis (43)<br />UAB (48)<br />Boston College (51)<br />Colorado State (54)<br />Tennessee (55)<br />Clemson (56)<br />Butler (60)<br />Gonzaga (66)<br />Alabama (79)<br />Baylor (82)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-41134177752393466092011-02-22T15:25:52.888-05:002011-02-22T15:25:52.888-05:00Those are the synthesized Sagarin ratings. I'...Those are the synthesized Sagarin ratings. I'm pretty sure the committee uses the ELO chess rating (margin of victory does not matter). The predictor rating uses margin of victory, but again I don't think the NCAA uses that (BCS only uses ELO).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com