Here is Bracketology 101's Final Feld of 65:This was the hardest last three teams to pick that we can remember. Most seasons, it's tough to pick the last one or two teams, but this year, it was three.
We think that any of our last three in (Virginia Tech, UTEP, Mississippi State) could get left out for either Utah State and Florida. We think Minnesota has done enough to get in regardless of how the Big Ten final ends up. We went with Mississippi State over Florida because we can't imagine the fourth best conference in the country getting just three bids. We also like the Bulldogs' neutral court victory over the Gators two days ago and the way they played against Kentucky today.
We have been on the Utah State bandwagon for a while, but in the end, C-USA is better than the WAC because UAB and Memphis are better than New Mexico State (or anyone else in the WAC). We also can't see the committee rewarding both little guys. Outside of the power six conferences, we already have seven at-large bids. We think eight is too many.
We only had one grouping issue with the final bracket. Louisville had to be bumped to be bumped down to a 12 seed.
The Breakdown
Last Four In
Minnesota, Virginia Tech, UTEP, Mississippi State
Last Four Out
Utah State, Florida, Illinois, Seton Hall
Next Four Out
Rhode Island, Arizona State, William & Mary, South Florida
---------------------------------------------------------------
The Seeds
The 1s
Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
The 2s
West Virginia, Ohio State, Kansas State, Georgetown
The 3s
Temple, Villanova, New Mexico, Pittsburgh
The 4s
Wisconsin, Purdue, Baylor, Tennessee
The 5s
Michigan State, Maryland, Butler, Texas A&M
The 6s
Vanderbilt, Richmond, BYU, Xavier
The 7s
Gonzaga, Texas, Oklahoma State, Northern Iowa
The 8s
Clemson, Notre Dame, Marquette, San Diego State
The 9s
Florida State, Missouri, St. Mary's, California
The 10s
UNLV, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Old Dominion
The 11s
Washington, Minnesota, Virginia Tech, UTEP
The 12s
Louisville, Mississippi State, Cornell, Siena
The 13s
New Mexico State, Murray State, Oakland, Houston
The 14s
Wofford, Sam Houston State, UC-Santa Barbara, Ohio
The 15s
Montana, Morgan State, North Texas, Vermont
The 16s
East Tennessee State, Robert Morris, Winthrop, Lehigh (Play-In Game), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Play-In Game)
The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
Really? Miss St and VT over Illinois? How?! Both have terrible SOS's and have only a couple more wins than Illinois. Sorry but I disagree.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely no reason to leave Illinois out. There goes your perfect bracket right off the bat.
ReplyDelete14 losses a 75 RPI? Enjoy the NIT.
ReplyDeleteBut how does Miss State get in with a 130 SOS? Sure more wins and higher RPI but 1-5 vs top 25.
ReplyDeleteBoy I hope USU gets in for my friend, but they sure made it difficult on themselves last night...
ReplyDeleteWhat's their RPI after the NM State loss?
I don't get UTEP. They've beaten 2 top 50 teams and they're both UAB.
ReplyDelete31 RPI on Utah State.
ReplyDeleteMiss St over Florida. Come on Gators resume is much better and they hav some bad losses Gators over dogs
ReplyDeleteI'm not going to argue with leaving Illinos out, but it's interesting to note that this season the difference between being a 2 seed (10-loss Gtown)and being OUT is 4 games.
ReplyDeleteAny concern about Lunardi's inexplicable swap of VT out / Illinois from last night even though nothing affecting them occurred today?
ReplyDeleteHe swaps teams like that every year and it doesn't always work out for him.
ReplyDeleteYou have to be kidding me. Team X is way better than your team. How could they leave my team out? If you're team's on the bubble - they don't have an argument, they should have won more. Period.
ReplyDeleteThe other dude....has temple a 4...had em a 5 until today...is he on dust?? or biased,or silly?
ReplyDeleteHow close was Duke vs West Virginia? In any case, Duke and West Virginia should be the 1 and 2 in the same region, right?
ReplyDeleteI also see you moved Syracuse back ahead of Duke. I agree but what changed your mind.
Your lucky Temple isnt gonna be a 2, you won't like them facing Kansas again.
ReplyDeleteIllinois will get in over Miss St or VT! Temple locked up a 2 seed today as well.
ReplyDeleteWhat factors put VT in ahead of USU and Illinois?
ReplyDeleteI can't believe Utah State being left out!! So what if the little guy gets 8 at large spots; the "BCS" teams really didn't prove themselves. Just because teams like Mississippi State, Illinois and Minnesota decided to all of sudden play well in the conference tourneys really devalues the regular season.
ReplyDeleteMy soapbox this year is questioning the point of the postseason tourneys. I know it's how the NCAA does things, but maybe it's time to finally change. This could come into play if the NCAA really expands the tournament next year.
I love what you guys do, but I strongly disagree with leaving USU out. I do, however, hope you beat everyone at this!!
Great job all season with the bracket. I like the Miss. St. over Florida pick. Leaving Utah State out is risky. I like Utah State in and Virginia Tech out.
ReplyDeleteYour lucky Temple isnt gonna be a 2, you won't like them facing Kansas again.....THATS VERY TRUE....I COULD LIVE WITHOUT SEEING THE JAYHAWKS
ReplyDeleteI was just kidding around, fowl. I love that Fernandez kid.
ReplyDeleteRichmond won't be a six seed.
ReplyDeleteLunardi made a last minute swap between Illinois and Virginia Tech, moving VT out and Illinois in. Given Lunardi's shady history, I would consider following him and his inside info.
ReplyDeleteOh whoops, I just noticed that Justin already pointed out the VT-Illinois thing. Sorry to be redundant.
ReplyDeleteYou guys got burned on George Mason, Arkansas, Oregon, etc, in the past. Don't act baffled though if he's right.
Minnesota is losing by 20 to an Ohio State squad that Illinois nearly beat yesterday. If the Gophers lose by 20+, do they really deserve to get in?
ReplyDeletemaryland all the way out west in spokane??? come on b101....
ReplyDeleteMinnesota is getting hammered by OSU. Illinois played them tough. Is it just bad luck for Illinois that they had to play OSU first?
ReplyDeleteIf you consider that Illinois beat Minnesota by 2 full games in the league, and that Minnesota's win over Purdue wasn't really all that valuable under the circumstances, I could easily see swapping out Minnesota and putting in Illinois. Let's not forget that this Minnesota team was blown out by Michigan just two weeks ago.
What's with the negativity? Keep in mind B101 is the best out there. I love you guys!
ReplyDeleteSyracuse the 1 - 1???? As McEnroe would say: "You CANNOT be serious!"
ReplyDeleteYou have Providence list twice in the east region.
ReplyDeleteMinnesota, Virginia Tech and UTEP are out and Utah St., Florida and Illinois are in. That's my call. If I'm right I will then gloat. If I'm wrong I suppose I'll start identifying myself as 'Bill' or 'Chip'.
ReplyDeleteHow is UTEP a better pick than USU? USU has more and better wins. They also ended the season crazy hot, which the committee will still look at, even if they claim not to. Also, USU's loss to NMSU is not nearly as bad a loss as UTEP's to Houston. USU's RPI is also much better. I think UTEP is more likely to be out, though I think both make it (UTEP just barely)
ReplyDeleteIf Illinois gets in over Virginia Tech will it confirm that Lunardi has inside info?
ReplyDeleteYou really think the committee would put Washington in the Spokane regional as an 11? Pretty tough draw for others in that pod.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the chances Duke gets sent out West and Syracuse to the South region?
ReplyDeleteMinnesota beat Illinois on the road two weeks ago and finished one game behind them in the conference standings. I think an argument can be made for Minnesota ahead of Illinois. Five wins against the top 25 as well. The Committee also takes into account last ten games. Gophers are 7-3, the Illini 4-6, limping to the finish.
ReplyDeleteMinnesota lost by 29. C'mon.
ReplyDeleteMinny beat a PU and MSU team that lacked players due to injury. Illinois played a full strength OSU team much better than Minny. Should that not be worth something?
ReplyDeleteThis RPI stuff is crazy. It just means that you don't play any 200+ teams. You can get a great RPI (like USU) without playing/winning/scheduling any tough out of conference games.
We were keeping Washington out of Spokane when they were a 12 or higher. At an 11, the principles state they should try to put them there.
ReplyDeleteUSU beat BYU and WSU who are both solid top 50 teams OOC. They also played St. Marys, so they scheduled 3 non-conference top 50 opponents. Not the most challenging non-conf schedule, but far better than many bubble teams'
ReplyDeleteWSU and St Mary's aren't even on the bubble, who cares if they gamed the RPI to be in the top 50?
ReplyDeleteWho won the only game between Minnesota and Illinois this season? Who is limping into the postseason? Who does not have 20 wins? Who does not have a non-conference win against a top 15 team? Who has a lower RPI? Minnesota is in the NCAA tourney; Illinois is in the N.I.T... Have fun Orange Crush
ReplyDeleteSt. Mary's isn't on the bubble because they are in the tourney. Duh! USU played people OOC.
ReplyDeleteWhy would OSU be paired with Kansas? Are they the worst #2 seed?
ReplyDeleteHard to see Virginia Tech in when every year now the committee comes on during the selection show and talks about teams being rewarded for challenging themselves. Virginia Tech did not challenge themselves. Illinois did
ReplyDeleteMinnesota had an embarrassing loss today. They got killed, but I think they earned their way in with their play over the past three weeks, winning 7 of 9, including MSU, Purdue, and Wisconsin...not to mention at Illinois. But, as a Minnesota fan, I fully expect to be the first team out. That's just how we roll.
ReplyDeleteI think what Minnesota pulled today should mean they are out of the tourney. Schools at lesser conferences have been punished for such final (see Illinios State's 30-point loss in the MVC title game two years ago). If they were a bubble team before it should be well popped now. People whine that mid-majors don't have the resumes, play anyone, etc., but why should bigger conferences get passes to perform like that just because they are in a bigger conference?
ReplyDeleteChallenging yourselves Illinois? You lost too many games. At some point you have to actually win. You are three losses away from being inelgible for the NIT.
ReplyDeleteLove it! Washington plays a home game in Spokane...definite upset in the making.
ReplyDeleteLike I said, wouldn't surprise me if the committee makes us the first team out. Minnesota sports seem cursed since the Twins won game 163 against Detroit in October: Favre's crazy pick in the NFC title game, Gophers losing the extremely prestigious Insight Bowl on a strange fumble, Gopher hockey struggling (very rare), the Timberwolves at the bottom...you get the picture. We expect to come up short in Minnesota...toughest fans in America lately.
ReplyDeleteB101
ReplyDeleteI generally like your bracket, it does however seem strange that their is such a huge drop between the the top five in the BE and the other 3 that made it, is it just a grouping issue or could you see ND and Marq move up a few seeds?
Also I can't believe the Committee will seed Lousiville twelve and will figure out some other way to move them up to a ten or at least an 11, why can't they get UTEP's spot?
Thanks for all your hard work and Good luck
Utah State out? That's a bold move, but probably right. Thanks for (once more) offering us such consistently smart and well written analyses of the bracket. My 18 year old son is a big Lunardi fan, and the fool's just bet me 20$ that Lunardi's bracket will be more accurate than yours. I've never made a bet that feels like such a sure thing.
ReplyDeleteis it based on the paymon scoring system steve or teams correct?
ReplyDeleteTennessee as a 6 and SDSU as an 11 is utterly absurd.
ReplyDeleteThe bottom half of Kansas' bracket looks tough: Ohio State, Gtown, Tennessee, Okie State.
ReplyDeleteWell not only did Gtown not get a two, they got totally screwed by being put in Ohio St's half and Tennesse which eveyrone has as a four as the six seed. Tennesse Gtown and Ohio St. all just got screwed.
ReplyDeleteFlorida was way in.....10 seed.
ReplyDeleteIf Florida is a 10, Miss. St. is a an 8.
ReplyDeleteSyracuse may not like being the 4th 1 seed, but given a choice between their bracket and Kansas' bracket, I'd take Syracuse's. Their bracket sets up very well for them.
ReplyDeleteNo Big East team in the Kansas half of the East bracket. Did the Big East not get 8?
ReplyDeletemaybe louisville? i cant even begin to fathom that.
ReplyDeleteLousiville must not have gotten in
ReplyDeletenotre dame?
ReplyDeletemust have been a grouping issue
ReplyDeleteThe committee set up some possible sweet 16 matchups between Big East teams. First time I remember them doing something like this.
ReplyDeleteNot only does Duke get away from a potential final 4 matchup against Kansas, but they get the easiest bracket. Duke, Nova, Baylor, Purdue??? Looks like a 2, 3, 4, and 6 seed to me, not 1-4.
ReplyDeleteWhy does the Committee always love Duke so much, easiest 2 seed and three seed I like ND to play Duke in the elite 8, so they have to beat a 6 seed, really? Advance Duke to the final four to get pummeled by someone
ReplyDeleteHoly crap at putting Florida in as a 10.
ReplyDeleteNonetheless, this is a better bracket than what we've seen over the last few years. I don't think anyone left out had a particularly strong case for getting in, though I would definitely have MS ST in over Florida
Florida in, and as a 10??? I don't get that one at all.
ReplyDeleteLouisville and Texas A&M can both beat Duke. Not sure any other team in that bracket can. Can't get over how easy that bracket is.
ReplyDeleteND a 6 seed???
ReplyDeleteApparently, VT really shouldn't have lost that Miami game.
ReplyDeleteThe real bracket is a joke.
ReplyDeleteI think I've figured out the Selection Committee and how they place middle-of-the-pack Power Six and mid major teams. If you are a Power Six team, take their RPI and divide it in half, and use that to place them in the bracket. (Examples: Notre Dame RPI of 48, get a six seed; Marquette RPI of 50, get a six seed;) If you are a Mid-Major, take the RPI and multiply it by two, and use that to place them in the bracket. (Examples: UNI RPI of 17, get a 9 seed; Temple RPI of 9, get a 5 seed.)
UNI got the biggest screw-job of them all. RPI of 17, 4-1 against top 50, 9-1 in true road games, won their conference by multiple games, and won every game in the conference tournament by at least 15 points.
ND and Marquette are both overseeded.
ReplyDeleteSyracuse got screwed by being #4 overall, but the committee gave them a decent bracket.
Kansas having Gtown and Ohio State in their bracket is no picnic.
Utah State. Blech.
ReplyDeleteGuess the committee put emphasis on winning the regular season? Utep, Utah State, Cal as an 8......
Miss St... Missed that one.
ReplyDeleteseth greenberg needs to zip it.
ReplyDeleteVery happy Minnesota made it, but I agree with other posters that the real injustice is Florida in over Mississippi State.
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty shocked that Florida got in, and with a 10 seed to boot! I thought Miss. St. deserved to get in more than UF did.
ReplyDeleteOn the surface, Duke's region is shockingly easy. If you dig deeper though, there's a good shot they have to play Texas A&M and then maybe Baylor IN HOUSTON.
ReplyDeleteDuke travels well, but they ain't a Big 12 school.
This bracket violates an explicit bracketing principle:
ReplyDelete"There shall not be more than two teams from a conference in one region unless a ninth team is selected from a conference."
3 out of 8 Big East teams are in the South.
The two sweet 16 matchups are technically allowed, but considering they violated a direct principle, they probably didn't give a s#%! about the others.
Here is the link for the black and white:
http://www.ncaa.com/graphics/champpage/Bracket_Prin-Proc_2009-10_07.07.09.pdf
Mississippi State should be in over Florida. Lane-violation by Wall at end of tje 2nd half to tie the game for the Wildcats ended the Bulldogs shining moment.
ReplyDeleteIf the SEC was smart, they would've figured out a way to get Miss St. that last-second victory since it would've helped the conference financially. But, it is the SEC... aside from Vanderbilt, a plethora of below-average "schools".
ReplyDelete"There shall not be more than two teams from a conference in one region unless a ninth team is selected from a conference."
ReplyDelete3 out of 8 Big East teams are in the South.
EXCELLENT point. For a second, I thought ND was going to be left out since they were the 3rd announced Big East school in the last announced region.
If they swapped UNI and Louisville, that would've adhered to that principle. UNI probably doesn't mind playing in Okie City.
Why have written principles if you're not going to follow them?
ReplyDeleteI have no problem with the actual teams that made the tourney. The seeding is a joke.
The Committee makes no sense. How is Duke in front of Syracuse? And then you have #2 West Virginia play in the same bracket as Kentucky? I think Duke, it seems like always, gets the preferential treatment across the country. They are probably in the easiest bracket, esp with a #2 villanova???? WTF.
ReplyDeleteI really don't see how Maryland lands at #4 and Temple drops to #5???
If Kansas is the #1, 1 seed, then why does Duke play the winner of the play in game?
ReplyDeleteI think that it's crazy that the selection comittee tells everyone their rules and then breaks them.
What are B101's feelings about the bracket?
If Kansas is the #1, 1 seed, then why does Duke play the winner of the play in game?
ReplyDeleteThe winner of the play in game always plays on a Friday. The #1 seeds that play Friday are Duke and Syracuse, that's your answer.
If my calculations are correct, you only beat Lunardi by 5 on the paymon scale. He got 64 of 65 teams correct, you got 63. He got 27 seeded correctly, you got 31. Both of you got 54 teams within one seed line.
ReplyDeleteActually, even though you have beaten him each of the last 5 years, in three of the 5 it was pretty close.
To anon at 6:27, by our math we beat Lunardi by 4 points.
ReplyDeleteCongrats B101 on beating Lunardi, some ridiculous seeding and (florida?) really kindof screwed you, They showed more love to the BE than you gave them, and Tenn makes no sense.
ReplyDeleteAlso B101 what are your thoughts on final four:
Mine are:
Kansas (would love to pick Gtown but can't)
Duke (easy bracket)
West Va (Butler can't lose and Kentucky showed weakness against a team that limits posessions like W.VA does)
Kansas St. (only if they watch alot of tape on how Gtown broke Cuse's zone)
With the way teams were seeded this year, I almost don't even care about this year's "scores". Florida a 10? Temple a 5? Notre Dame a 6? Who would have predicted any of that with a legitimate argument? And that's only a couple examples.
ReplyDeleteWow... I can't believe people were claiming I was biased against mid-majors. The selection committee is obviously much more biased.
ReplyDeleteMy "bias" mostly only extended to last 4 in first 4 out with the exception of the MWC.
The selection committee gave mid-majors no credit at all on seeding, with the exception of the MWC conference I hate.
I hate the seeding.
i love the fact that knight when off on the fact that the committee is made up of a bunch of people who don't know squat about basketball. the interview the chairman did was horrendous -- he basically didn't answer any questions. you would think he would put a suit on that fits knowing that he was going on national tv.
ReplyDeleteAnyone feel free to comment on my final four
ReplyDeleteMIDWEST - KU vs OSU
KU
WEST - SYR vs KSU
SYR
EAST - UK vs WVU
WVU
SOUTH - DUKE vs BAYLOR
BAYLOR
CUSE over BAYLOR in the finals.
B101 WHAT IS YOUR ELITE 8 AND FINAL 4????????????
ReplyDeleteB101...you guys got comments/thoughts on the bracket?
ReplyDeleteCongrats on beating Lunardi ... again
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